Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 5 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 21.8% 19.3–24.6% 18.6–25.4% 18.0–26.1% 16.9–27.5%
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 21.0% 18.6–23.8% 17.9–24.6% 17.3–25.3% 16.2–26.6%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 20.0% 17.6–22.8% 16.9–23.5% 16.4–24.2% 15.3–25.6%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 9.8% 8.1–11.9% 7.6–12.5% 7.2–13.1% 6.5–14.2%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 6.5% 5.2–8.4% 4.8–8.9% 4.5–9.4% 3.9–10.3%
Partit Popular 4.2% 5.8% 4.5–7.5% 4.1–8.0% 3.9–8.5% 3.3–9.4%
Vox 0.0% 5.5% 4.3–7.3% 3.9–7.7% 3.7–8.2% 3.2–9.1%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 5.0% 3.9–6.7% 3.5–7.2% 3.3–7.6% 2.8–8.5%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0.0% 1.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.6–2.6% 0.5–2.9% 0.4–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 30 26–34 25–35 25–37 23–38
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 32 28–36 27–38 26–38 24–41
Junts per Catalunya 34 32 28–37 26–38 26–39 24–41
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 13 10–16 9–17 8–18 8–19
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 7 5–10 5–11 4–11 4–13
Partit Popular 4 7 5–10 3–10 3–11 3–12
Vox 0 7 5–9 4–10 3–11 2–12
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 7 4–8 3–9 2–10 0–11
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–3

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 0.5% 99.7%  
24 2% 99.3%  
25 5% 98%  
26 9% 92%  
27 7% 83%  
28 5% 76%  
29 12% 71%  
30 13% 59% Median
31 16% 46%  
32 11% 29%  
33 7% 19%  
34 5% 12%  
35 2% 6%  
36 2% 4%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.4% 0.8%  
39 0.3% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.6% 99.7%  
25 1.4% 99.1%  
26 2% 98%  
27 3% 96%  
28 9% 92%  
29 11% 83%  
30 11% 73%  
31 8% 62%  
32 10% 54% Last Result, Median
33 9% 43%  
34 10% 35%  
35 9% 25%  
36 7% 16%  
37 4% 9%  
38 3% 5%  
39 0.9% 2%  
40 0.2% 1.5%  
41 1.0% 1.3%  
42 0.1% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.8%  
25 2% 99.4%  
26 3% 98%  
27 3% 94%  
28 3% 91%  
29 7% 88%  
30 6% 82%  
31 19% 75%  
32 17% 56% Median
33 7% 39%  
34 5% 33% Last Result
35 5% 28%  
36 12% 23%  
37 5% 10%  
38 2% 5%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.5% 1.4%  
41 0.6% 0.9%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.2% 99.9%  
8 3% 99.7%  
9 5% 97%  
10 4% 92%  
11 7% 89%  
12 19% 82%  
13 23% 63% Median
14 22% 40%  
15 6% 19%  
16 6% 13%  
17 3% 6%  
18 2% 4%  
19 1.2% 1.4%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.4% 100%  
4 4% 99.6%  
5 19% 95%  
6 8% 76%  
7 24% 68% Median
8 21% 45% Last Result
9 9% 23%  
10 8% 14%  
11 4% 6%  
12 0.9% 2%  
13 0.8% 1.0%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0.2% 99.9%  
3 6% 99.7%  
4 1.2% 94% Last Result
5 15% 93%  
6 9% 78%  
7 34% 69% Median
8 4% 35%  
9 19% 31%  
10 7% 12%  
11 2% 5%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0.4% 99.8%  
3 4% 99.5%  
4 4% 95%  
5 15% 91%  
6 16% 76%  
7 32% 60% Median
8 6% 28%  
9 13% 21%  
10 5% 9%  
11 2% 3%  
12 1.4% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 0% 98.8%  
2 2% 98.8%  
3 3% 97%  
4 21% 94% Last Result
5 6% 72%  
6 8% 66%  
7 24% 58% Median
8 25% 34%  
9 5% 9%  
10 2% 4%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 5%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0.1% 0.5%  
4 0.1% 0.4%  
5 0.2% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 72 82% 66–77 65–78 64–79 61–81
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 70 78% 66–76 64–77 62–78 60–80
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 70 70 78% 66–76 64–77 62–78 60–80
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 69 65% 64–75 63–76 61–77 60–79
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 64 22% 59–69 57–71 56–72 54–74
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 66 64 23% 59–70 57–71 56–72 54–74
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 58 0.4% 53–62 51–64 50–66 48–67
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox 57 57 0.5% 52–62 50–64 50–65 47–68
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 51 0% 45–55 44–57 43–58 41–60
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 40 0% 34–44 34–45 33–47 31–49

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.4% 99.7%  
62 0.6% 99.3%  
63 0.7% 98.7%  
64 2% 98%  
65 2% 96%  
66 4% 94%  
67 8% 90%  
68 5% 82% Majority
69 9% 78%  
70 9% 69%  
71 6% 60% Median
72 13% 53%  
73 10% 40%  
74 7% 31% Last Result
75 7% 24%  
76 6% 17%  
77 4% 11%  
78 3% 7%  
79 2% 4%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.7% 1.1%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 0.9% 99.4%  
62 2% 98%  
63 1.2% 97%  
64 2% 96%  
65 2% 94%  
66 4% 91%  
67 9% 87%  
68 7% 78% Majority
69 11% 70%  
70 12% 59% Last Result
71 5% 47% Median
72 12% 42%  
73 8% 31%  
74 7% 23%  
75 5% 16%  
76 4% 11%  
77 2% 7%  
78 3% 5%  
79 1.2% 2%  
80 0.5% 0.9%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 0.9% 99.4%  
62 2% 98%  
63 1.0% 97%  
64 2% 96%  
65 2% 94%  
66 4% 91%  
67 9% 87%  
68 7% 78% Majority
69 11% 71%  
70 13% 60% Last Result
71 5% 48% Median
72 12% 43%  
73 8% 31%  
74 6% 23%  
75 5% 17%  
76 5% 12%  
77 2% 7%  
78 3% 5%  
79 1.1% 2%  
80 0.6% 1.1%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100% Last Result
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.7%  
60 0.8% 99.5%  
61 2% 98.7%  
62 1.4% 97%  
63 3% 96%  
64 4% 93%  
65 6% 89%  
66 7% 83%  
67 11% 76%  
68 6% 65% Majority
69 11% 58% Median
70 11% 47%  
71 8% 36%  
72 6% 28%  
73 8% 22%  
74 4% 14%  
75 5% 11%  
76 2% 6%  
77 2% 4%  
78 0.7% 2%  
79 0.7% 1.1%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.6%  
55 0.4% 99.2%  
56 2% 98.8%  
57 2% 97%  
58 2% 95%  
59 5% 93%  
60 6% 88%  
61 4% 82%  
62 14% 78%  
63 6% 64%  
64 10% 58% Median
65 13% 48%  
66 7% 36% Last Result
67 7% 28%  
68 8% 22% Majority
69 3% 13%  
70 3% 10%  
71 3% 6%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.7% 1.4%  
74 0.4% 0.7%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.6%  
55 0.4% 99.2%  
56 2% 98.8%  
57 2% 97%  
58 2% 95%  
59 5% 93%  
60 6% 88%  
61 4% 82%  
62 14% 79%  
63 6% 65%  
64 10% 59% Median
65 13% 49%  
66 7% 36% Last Result
67 6% 29%  
68 9% 23% Majority
69 3% 13%  
70 4% 10%  
71 3% 7%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.7% 1.5%  
74 0.4% 0.8%  
75 0.1% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.7%  
49 1.4% 99.4%  
50 2% 98%  
51 2% 96%  
52 3% 94%  
53 6% 91%  
54 9% 85%  
55 7% 76%  
56 5% 69%  
57 14% 64% Median
58 12% 51%  
59 8% 39%  
60 10% 30%  
61 5% 20%  
62 5% 15%  
63 3% 10%  
64 2% 7%  
65 1.3% 4% Last Result
66 2% 3%  
67 0.7% 1.1%  
68 0.2% 0.4% Majority
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.8%  
47 0.4% 99.7%  
48 0.4% 99.4%  
49 0.9% 99.0%  
50 3% 98%  
51 3% 95%  
52 6% 92%  
53 7% 86%  
54 5% 79%  
55 7% 73%  
56 7% 67%  
57 11% 59% Last Result, Median
58 12% 49%  
59 12% 37%  
60 6% 24%  
61 7% 19%  
62 3% 12%  
63 3% 8%  
64 2% 5%  
65 1.3% 4%  
66 1.2% 2%  
67 0.7% 1.2%  
68 0.3% 0.5% Majority
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.6%  
42 1.4% 99.4%  
43 2% 98%  
44 2% 96%  
45 4% 93%  
46 9% 89%  
47 5% 80%  
48 5% 75%  
49 9% 70%  
50 10% 61% Median
51 16% 51%  
52 9% 35%  
53 9% 26%  
54 5% 17%  
55 4% 12%  
56 3% 8%  
57 2% 5% Last Result
58 1.4% 4%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.4% 0.6%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.2% 99.7%  
31 0.4% 99.6%  
32 1.1% 99.1%  
33 3% 98%  
34 6% 95%  
35 7% 90%  
36 12% 83%  
37 5% 71%  
38 8% 66%  
39 6% 58% Median
40 12% 52% Last Result
41 9% 39%  
42 12% 30%  
43 8% 19%  
44 4% 11%  
45 3% 7%  
46 2% 4%  
47 1.4% 3%  
48 0.3% 1.2%  
49 0.6% 0.9%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations