Opinion Poll by GESOP for El Periódico, 4–6 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 23.0% 20.6–25.8% 19.9–26.6% 19.3–27.3% 18.1–28.7%
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 20.9% 18.5–23.6% 17.9–24.4% 17.3–25.1% 16.2–26.4%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 18.8% 16.5–21.4% 15.9–22.1% 15.3–22.8% 14.3–24.1%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 7.6% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1% 5.4–10.5% 4.8–11.5%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 7.6% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1% 5.4–10.5% 4.8–11.5%
Vox 0.0% 6.9% 5.5–8.7% 5.2–9.3% 4.8–9.7% 4.3–10.7%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 6.4% 5.1–8.2% 4.8–8.7% 4.5–9.2% 3.9–10.1%
Partit Popular 4.2% 3.8% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.7% 2.4–6.1% 2.0–6.9%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0.0% 1.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4% 1.0–3.7% 0.7–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 32 28–36 27–37 26–38 25–40
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 32 28–36 27–38 26–39 24–41
Junts per Catalunya 34 31 26–35 25–36 24–37 23–39
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 10 7–12 6–13 6–14 5–15
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 8 7–11 6–13 5–14 4–15
Vox 0 9 7–12 6–12 6–13 4–15
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 8 7–11 7–11 5–13 4–15
Partit Popular 4 3 0–6 0–7 0–7 0–9
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0 0 0–1 0–3 0–4 0–6

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 1.1% 99.7%  
26 3% 98.6%  
27 3% 96%  
28 5% 92%  
29 9% 87%  
30 6% 78%  
31 17% 72%  
32 12% 55% Median
33 8% 43%  
34 8% 34%  
35 9% 26%  
36 9% 17%  
37 4% 8%  
38 2% 4%  
39 1.1% 2%  
40 0.4% 0.6%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 0.3% 99.8%  
25 1.2% 99.4%  
26 2% 98%  
27 4% 96%  
28 8% 92%  
29 5% 84%  
30 8% 79%  
31 9% 71%  
32 15% 62% Last Result, Median
33 7% 47%  
34 21% 40%  
35 7% 19%  
36 3% 12%  
37 3% 8%  
38 2% 6%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.6% 2%  
41 0.8% 1.1%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 1.0% 99.8%  
24 2% 98.8%  
25 5% 96%  
26 4% 92%  
27 7% 88%  
28 5% 80%  
29 14% 75%  
30 11% 62%  
31 19% 50% Median
32 12% 31%  
33 4% 19%  
34 3% 14% Last Result
35 3% 11%  
36 3% 8%  
37 4% 5%  
38 0.8% 1.3%  
39 0.4% 0.6%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.1% 100%  
6 5% 98.8%  
7 6% 94%  
8 20% 88%  
9 14% 67%  
10 10% 53% Median
11 8% 43%  
12 26% 35%  
13 7% 10%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.2% 0.5%  
16 0.2% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.5% 100%  
5 3% 99.4%  
6 3% 96%  
7 20% 94%  
8 27% 74% Last Result, Median
9 16% 47%  
10 8% 31%  
11 15% 22%  
12 2% 8%  
13 3% 5%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.3% 0.6%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 0.3% 99.7%  
5 2% 99.5%  
6 4% 98%  
7 19% 94%  
8 17% 74%  
9 21% 57% Median
10 15% 36%  
11 8% 21%  
12 9% 13%  
13 2% 4%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.5% 0.6%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.3% 99.9%  
4 2% 99.6% Last Result
5 0.9% 98%  
6 2% 97%  
7 13% 95%  
8 35% 82% Median
9 26% 47%  
10 5% 21%  
11 11% 16%  
12 1.5% 5%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.5% 1.2%  
15 0.5% 0.6%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 0% 87%  
2 11% 87%  
3 31% 76% Median
4 12% 46% Last Result
5 16% 34%  
6 9% 18%  
7 8% 9%  
8 1.0% 2%  
9 0.8% 0.9%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 80% 100% Last Result, Median
1 14% 20%  
2 0.2% 6%  
3 1.5% 6%  
4 3% 4%  
5 1.1% 2%  
6 0.6% 0.7%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 73 91% 68–78 67–80 65–80 63–83
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 72 81% 66–77 65–79 63–80 61–81
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 70 72 85% 67–76 65–78 64–79 61–82
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 71 83% 66–76 64–78 63–79 61–82
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 63 11% 57–68 56–69 55–71 53–72
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 66 63 12% 58–68 56–69 55–71 53–73
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 65 54 0% 49–59 48–60 47–62 45–64
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular 57 54 0% 50–60 48–61 47–62 45–64
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 46 0% 40–50 40–52 38–53 36–55
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 41 0% 36–45 35–48 34–49 32–50

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.4% 99.6%  
64 0.6% 99.2%  
65 1.4% 98.6%  
66 2% 97%  
67 4% 95%  
68 3% 91% Majority
69 6% 88%  
70 7% 83%  
71 8% 76%  
72 12% 68% Median
73 12% 55%  
74 9% 43%  
75 6% 34%  
76 5% 27%  
77 8% 23%  
78 7% 15%  
79 2% 9%  
80 4% 6%  
81 0.8% 2%  
82 0.8% 1.4%  
83 0.3% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.4% 99.7%  
62 0.7% 99.4%  
63 1.3% 98.7%  
64 1.3% 97%  
65 3% 96%  
66 4% 93%  
67 8% 89%  
68 6% 81% Majority
69 8% 75%  
70 8% 67%  
71 7% 60% Median
72 16% 52%  
73 13% 36%  
74 3% 23% Last Result
75 5% 20%  
76 4% 15%  
77 4% 10%  
78 2% 7%  
79 2% 5%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.4% 0.7%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 0.4% 99.5%  
63 1.4% 99.1%  
64 2% 98%  
65 1.5% 96%  
66 4% 94%  
67 5% 91%  
68 9% 85% Majority
69 10% 77%  
70 6% 67% Last Result
71 11% 61% Median
72 9% 51%  
73 7% 42%  
74 16% 35%  
75 4% 19%  
76 6% 15%  
77 3% 10%  
78 4% 7%  
79 1.4% 3%  
80 0.9% 2%  
81 0.5% 1.1%  
82 0.4% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.7%  
62 0.7% 99.3%  
63 2% 98.6%  
64 2% 97%  
65 3% 95%  
66 4% 92%  
67 5% 88%  
68 8% 83% Majority
69 10% 74%  
70 6% 64% Last Result
71 11% 58% Median
72 8% 47%  
73 8% 39%  
74 13% 31%  
75 4% 17%  
76 5% 13%  
77 3% 9%  
78 3% 6%  
79 1.2% 3%  
80 0.4% 1.4%  
81 0.4% 0.9%  
82 0.4% 0.5%  
83 0% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.5% 99.5%  
54 0.8% 99.0%  
55 2% 98%  
56 3% 96%  
57 4% 93%  
58 4% 89%  
59 9% 85%  
60 7% 76%  
61 9% 69%  
62 9% 60%  
63 10% 51% Median
64 9% 41%  
65 10% 32%  
66 8% 22% Last Result
67 2% 14%  
68 4% 11% Majority
69 3% 7%  
70 1.2% 4%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.4% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.7%  
54 0.7% 99.3%  
55 1.4% 98.5%  
56 3% 97%  
57 3% 94%  
58 3% 91%  
59 8% 88%  
60 7% 79%  
61 9% 72%  
62 9% 63%  
63 11% 55% Median
64 7% 44%  
65 12% 37%  
66 8% 24% Last Result
67 3% 16%  
68 4% 12% Majority
69 4% 8%  
70 1.2% 5%  
71 2% 4%  
72 0.6% 1.3%  
73 0.4% 0.7%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.6%  
46 0.7% 99.2%  
47 1.0% 98%  
48 3% 97%  
49 7% 95%  
50 3% 88%  
51 5% 84%  
52 7% 79%  
53 15% 72% Median
54 8% 57%  
55 7% 49%  
56 10% 42%  
57 11% 32%  
58 6% 21%  
59 6% 15%  
60 4% 9%  
61 2% 5%  
62 1.4% 3%  
63 1.0% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.8%  
65 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0% Majority

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 0.5% 99.6%  
46 1.5% 99.1%  
47 2% 98%  
48 3% 96%  
49 3% 93%  
50 5% 91%  
51 5% 86%  
52 6% 80%  
53 9% 75%  
54 18% 66% Median
55 10% 47%  
56 8% 37%  
57 4% 29% Last Result
58 6% 26%  
59 9% 20%  
60 5% 11%  
61 2% 6%  
62 2% 4%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.6% 1.0%  
65 0.1% 0.4%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0% Majority

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.2% 99.7%  
37 0.8% 99.5%  
38 2% 98.7%  
39 2% 97%  
40 6% 95%  
41 3% 89%  
42 6% 85%  
43 8% 80%  
44 7% 72%  
45 9% 65% Median
46 15% 56%  
47 10% 41%  
48 7% 31%  
49 8% 24%  
50 7% 16%  
51 4% 9%  
52 3% 5%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.3% 1.1%  
55 0.5% 0.8%  
56 0.1% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.3% 99.8%  
33 1.0% 99.4%  
34 2% 98%  
35 3% 97%  
36 5% 93%  
37 6% 88%  
38 6% 82%  
39 5% 75%  
40 8% 70% Last Result, Median
41 17% 62%  
42 16% 45%  
43 10% 29%  
44 5% 18%  
45 4% 13%  
46 2% 10%  
47 2% 7%  
48 1.5% 5%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.5% 0.9%  
51 0.3% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations