Opinion Poll by NC Report for La Razón, 3–6 February 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 21.5% | 19.4–23.8% | 18.8–24.4% | 18.3–25.0% | 17.4–26.1% |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 20.3% | 18.3–22.5% | 17.7–23.2% | 17.2–23.7% | 16.3–24.9% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 19.9% | 17.9–22.2% | 17.4–22.8% | 16.9–23.4% | 16.0–24.5% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 10.8% | 9.3–12.7% | 8.9–13.2% | 8.6–13.6% | 7.9–14.5% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.0–8.8% | 5.7–9.2% | 5.4–9.6% | 4.8–10.4% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.2–7.8% | 4.9–8.3% | 4.6–8.6% | 4.2–9.4% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 5.8% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.5–7.7% | 4.2–8.1% | 3.7–8.8% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.5–6.9% | 4.2–7.3% | 3.9–7.7% | 3.5–8.4% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.5% | 0.7–2.7% | 0.5–3.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 29 | 26–32 | 25–33 | 25–34 | 24–35 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 29 | 27–34 | 26–34 | 25–35 | 24–37 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 31 | 29–35 | 27–36 | 26–37 | 25–38 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 14 | 12–17 | 12–18 | 11–18 | 9–19 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 6–10 | 5–11 | 5–11 | 4–13 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 7 | 6–10 | 5–10 | 5–11 | 4–12 |
| Vox | 0 | 7 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 3–10 | 3–11 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 7 | 4–8 | 4–9 | 4–10 | 3–11 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 25 | 5% | 98% | |
| 26 | 13% | 93% | |
| 27 | 11% | 80% | |
| 28 | 6% | 69% | |
| 29 | 14% | 63% | Median |
| 30 | 13% | 49% | |
| 31 | 23% | 36% | |
| 32 | 8% | 14% | |
| 33 | 2% | 5% | |
| 34 | 2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 26 | 3% | 97% | |
| 27 | 6% | 94% | |
| 28 | 15% | 88% | |
| 29 | 25% | 73% | Median |
| 30 | 12% | 48% | |
| 31 | 10% | 36% | |
| 32 | 7% | 26% | Last Result |
| 33 | 5% | 19% | |
| 34 | 9% | 14% | |
| 35 | 3% | 5% | |
| 36 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 26 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 27 | 2% | 97% | |
| 28 | 2% | 94% | |
| 29 | 7% | 92% | |
| 30 | 9% | 85% | |
| 31 | 31% | 76% | Median |
| 32 | 17% | 44% | |
| 33 | 9% | 28% | |
| 34 | 5% | 19% | Last Result |
| 35 | 6% | 14% | |
| 36 | 4% | 8% | |
| 37 | 3% | 4% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 12 | 13% | 97% | |
| 13 | 25% | 84% | |
| 14 | 20% | 59% | Median |
| 15 | 15% | 39% | |
| 16 | 14% | 24% | |
| 17 | 4% | 11% | |
| 18 | 5% | 7% | |
| 19 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 5 | 6% | 99.5% | |
| 6 | 9% | 93% | |
| 7 | 15% | 84% | |
| 8 | 41% | 70% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 9% | 29% | |
| 10 | 10% | 20% | |
| 11 | 8% | 10% | |
| 12 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 5 | 5% | 99.3% | |
| 6 | 7% | 94% | |
| 7 | 42% | 87% | Median |
| 8 | 7% | 45% | |
| 9 | 23% | 38% | |
| 10 | 11% | 15% | |
| 11 | 2% | 4% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 5 | 11% | 96% | |
| 6 | 9% | 85% | |
| 7 | 48% | 76% | Median |
| 8 | 5% | 27% | |
| 9 | 15% | 22% | |
| 10 | 5% | 6% | |
| 11 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 10% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 5 | 5% | 89% | |
| 6 | 9% | 84% | |
| 7 | 45% | 76% | Median |
| 8 | 22% | 31% | |
| 9 | 5% | 9% | |
| 10 | 2% | 4% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 70 | 80% | 66–74 | 65–75 | 64–76 | 62–78 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 68 | 59% | 65–73 | 64–74 | 63–74 | 61–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 70 | 68 | 60% | 65–73 | 64–74 | 63–74 | 61–77 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 68 | 52% | 63–71 | 62–72 | 61–73 | 59–75 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 66 | 62 | 2% | 58–66 | 57–67 | 56–67 | 54–69 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 62 | 2% | 58–66 | 57–67 | 55–67 | 54–69 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 60 | 0.3% | 55–63 | 54–64 | 53–65 | 51–67 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 59 | 0.2% | 54–62 | 53–63 | 52–64 | 50–66 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 51 | 0% | 47–55 | 46–56 | 45–57 | 43–60 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 38 | 0% | 35–42 | 34–43 | 33–44 | 31–46 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 63 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 4% | 95% | |
| 66 | 6% | 92% | |
| 67 | 6% | 86% | |
| 68 | 20% | 80% | Median, Majority |
| 69 | 8% | 59% | |
| 70 | 15% | 51% | |
| 71 | 9% | 36% | |
| 72 | 8% | 27% | |
| 73 | 6% | 20% | |
| 74 | 5% | 14% | Last Result |
| 75 | 5% | 9% | |
| 76 | 3% | 4% | |
| 77 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 62 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 63 | 2% | 98% | |
| 64 | 5% | 96% | |
| 65 | 5% | 91% | |
| 66 | 10% | 86% | |
| 67 | 16% | 76% | Median |
| 68 | 12% | 59% | Majority |
| 69 | 11% | 47% | |
| 70 | 10% | 37% | Last Result |
| 71 | 9% | 27% | |
| 72 | 6% | 18% | |
| 73 | 5% | 12% | |
| 74 | 5% | 7% | |
| 75 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 62 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 63 | 2% | 98% | |
| 64 | 5% | 96% | |
| 65 | 5% | 91% | |
| 66 | 10% | 86% | |
| 67 | 16% | 76% | Median |
| 68 | 12% | 60% | Majority |
| 69 | 11% | 48% | |
| 70 | 10% | 37% | Last Result |
| 71 | 9% | 27% | |
| 72 | 6% | 19% | |
| 73 | 5% | 12% | |
| 74 | 5% | 8% | |
| 75 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 61 | 1.5% | 98.6% | |
| 62 | 4% | 97% | |
| 63 | 5% | 94% | |
| 64 | 7% | 89% | |
| 65 | 9% | 82% | |
| 66 | 6% | 73% | Median |
| 67 | 15% | 67% | |
| 68 | 24% | 52% | Majority |
| 69 | 7% | 27% | |
| 70 | 7% | 20% | |
| 71 | 7% | 13% | |
| 72 | 4% | 7% | |
| 73 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 1.5% | 99.0% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98% | |
| 57 | 5% | 96% | |
| 58 | 6% | 90% | |
| 59 | 6% | 85% | |
| 60 | 19% | 79% | Median |
| 61 | 7% | 60% | |
| 62 | 19% | 53% | |
| 63 | 8% | 34% | |
| 64 | 6% | 26% | |
| 65 | 4% | 20% | |
| 66 | 6% | 15% | Last Result |
| 67 | 7% | 9% | |
| 68 | 1.4% | 2% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 56 | 2% | 97% | |
| 57 | 6% | 96% | |
| 58 | 6% | 90% | |
| 59 | 6% | 85% | |
| 60 | 19% | 78% | Median |
| 61 | 7% | 59% | |
| 62 | 19% | 52% | |
| 63 | 8% | 33% | |
| 64 | 6% | 26% | |
| 65 | 5% | 19% | |
| 66 | 6% | 15% | Last Result |
| 67 | 7% | 9% | |
| 68 | 1.5% | 2% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 98.5% | |
| 54 | 4% | 97% | |
| 55 | 5% | 93% | |
| 56 | 7% | 89% | |
| 57 | 11% | 81% | |
| 58 | 9% | 70% | Median |
| 59 | 11% | 61% | |
| 60 | 11% | 50% | |
| 61 | 17% | 39% | |
| 62 | 9% | 22% | |
| 63 | 4% | 13% | |
| 64 | 5% | 8% | |
| 65 | 1.1% | 3% | Last Result |
| 66 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 52 | 2% | 98% | |
| 53 | 3% | 96% | |
| 54 | 4% | 93% | |
| 55 | 8% | 89% | |
| 56 | 9% | 80% | |
| 57 | 10% | 71% | Last Result, Median |
| 58 | 9% | 61% | |
| 59 | 10% | 52% | |
| 60 | 22% | 42% | |
| 61 | 7% | 21% | |
| 62 | 7% | 14% | |
| 63 | 3% | 6% | |
| 64 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 65 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 66 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 45 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 46 | 3% | 97% | |
| 47 | 7% | 94% | |
| 48 | 7% | 87% | |
| 49 | 9% | 80% | |
| 50 | 10% | 71% | Median |
| 51 | 13% | 62% | |
| 52 | 10% | 49% | |
| 53 | 19% | 39% | |
| 54 | 8% | 20% | |
| 55 | 7% | 12% | |
| 56 | 2% | 5% | |
| 57 | 1.3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 58 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 33 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 34 | 4% | 96% | |
| 35 | 5% | 93% | |
| 36 | 18% | 88% | |
| 37 | 20% | 70% | Median |
| 38 | 13% | 50% | |
| 39 | 9% | 37% | |
| 40 | 7% | 29% | Last Result |
| 41 | 7% | 21% | |
| 42 | 6% | 14% | |
| 43 | 4% | 8% | |
| 44 | 3% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: NC Report
- Commissioner(s): La Razón
- Fieldwork period: 3–6 February 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 582
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.15%