Opinion Poll by Sigma Dos for El Mundo, 6 February 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 22.9% | 21.3–24.7% | 20.8–25.2% | 20.4–25.6% | 19.6–26.5% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 21.4% | 19.8–23.1% | 19.4–23.6% | 19.0–24.1% | 18.2–24.9% |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 20.8% | 19.2–22.5% | 18.8–23.0% | 18.4–23.4% | 17.7–24.3% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 9.2% | 8.1–10.5% | 7.8–10.8% | 7.6–11.2% | 7.1–11.8% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.6–7.1% | 4.4–7.3% | 4.1–7.9% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.5–7.0% | 4.3–7.2% | 4.0–7.7% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 5.4% | 4.6–6.4% | 4.3–6.7% | 4.2–7.0% | 3.8–7.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 31 | 28–34 | 27–34 | 27–35 | 26–36 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 34 | 31–37 | 31–37 | 30–38 | 28–39 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 30 | 28–34 | 28–34 | 27–35 | 26–36 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 12 | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 8–16 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 5–11 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 8 | 6–8 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 4–10 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 3–10 |
| Vox | 0 | 7 | 5–7 | 5–9 | 3–9 | 3–9 |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 4% | 98% | |
| 28 | 5% | 94% | |
| 29 | 7% | 89% | |
| 30 | 21% | 82% | |
| 31 | 28% | 60% | Median |
| 32 | 16% | 33% | |
| 33 | 5% | 17% | |
| 34 | 8% | 12% | |
| 35 | 3% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 31 | 12% | 96% | |
| 32 | 14% | 84% | |
| 33 | 14% | 70% | |
| 34 | 21% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 35 | 17% | 34% | |
| 36 | 5% | 17% | |
| 37 | 8% | 12% | |
| 38 | 2% | 4% | |
| 39 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 28 | 9% | 96% | |
| 29 | 30% | 88% | |
| 30 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 31 | 14% | 46% | |
| 32 | 8% | 32% | Last Result |
| 33 | 12% | 24% | |
| 34 | 8% | 12% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 8% | 98% | |
| 10 | 7% | 90% | |
| 11 | 7% | 83% | |
| 12 | 40% | 76% | Median |
| 13 | 30% | 36% | |
| 14 | 5% | 6% | |
| 15 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 11% | 94% | |
| 7 | 26% | 83% | |
| 8 | 41% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 8% | 16% | |
| 10 | 6% | 8% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 4% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 5 | 4% | 96% | |
| 6 | 6% | 92% | |
| 7 | 29% | 85% | |
| 8 | 48% | 56% | Median |
| 9 | 7% | 8% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 1.5% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 5 | 18% | 97% | |
| 6 | 17% | 80% | |
| 7 | 48% | 63% | Median |
| 8 | 6% | 15% | |
| 9 | 8% | 9% | |
| 10 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 97% | |
| 5 | 27% | 96% | |
| 6 | 18% | 69% | |
| 7 | 42% | 51% | Median |
| 8 | 3% | 9% | |
| 9 | 6% | 6% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 71 | 96% | 68–75 | 68–76 | 67–77 | 66–78 |
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 72 | 96% | 69–75 | 68–76 | 67–77 | 66–79 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 69 | 70% | 66–73 | 65–73 | 64–74 | 63–76 |
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 66 | 64 | 10% | 61–67 | 60–68 | 60–69 | 59–71 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 57 | 0% | 54–60 | 53–61 | 52–61 | 50–63 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 56 | 0% | 53–59 | 51–60 | 51–60 | 49–62 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 50 | 0% | 46–52 | 45–53 | 44–54 | 43–55 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 38 | 0% | 36–41 | 35–42 | 35–43 | 33–44 |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 67 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 68 | 7% | 96% | Majority |
| 69 | 7% | 89% | |
| 70 | 11% | 81% | Last Result |
| 71 | 20% | 70% | |
| 72 | 13% | 49% | Median |
| 73 | 12% | 37% | |
| 74 | 11% | 25% | |
| 75 | 8% | 14% | |
| 76 | 3% | 6% | |
| 77 | 2% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 67 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 68 | 5% | 96% | Majority |
| 69 | 9% | 91% | |
| 70 | 10% | 82% | |
| 71 | 15% | 72% | |
| 72 | 18% | 57% | Median |
| 73 | 13% | 39% | |
| 74 | 12% | 26% | Last Result |
| 75 | 6% | 14% | |
| 76 | 4% | 8% | |
| 77 | 2% | 4% | |
| 78 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 64 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 65 | 3% | 97% | |
| 66 | 5% | 94% | |
| 67 | 19% | 89% | |
| 68 | 15% | 70% | Majority |
| 69 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 70 | 14% | 40% | |
| 71 | 10% | 26% | |
| 72 | 7% | 17% | |
| 73 | 5% | 10% | |
| 74 | 3% | 5% | |
| 75 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 3% | 98% | |
| 61 | 9% | 94% | |
| 62 | 9% | 85% | |
| 63 | 15% | 76% | |
| 64 | 17% | 61% | Median |
| 65 | 9% | 44% | |
| 66 | 16% | 35% | Last Result |
| 67 | 9% | 19% | |
| 68 | 5% | 10% | Majority |
| 69 | 3% | 5% | |
| 70 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 52 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 53 | 4% | 96% | |
| 54 | 8% | 93% | |
| 55 | 12% | 85% | |
| 56 | 10% | 72% | |
| 57 | 16% | 63% | |
| 58 | 21% | 46% | Median |
| 59 | 11% | 25% | |
| 60 | 7% | 15% | |
| 61 | 5% | 7% | |
| 62 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 51 | 3% | 98% | |
| 52 | 4% | 94% | |
| 53 | 8% | 91% | |
| 54 | 13% | 83% | |
| 55 | 15% | 69% | |
| 56 | 20% | 55% | |
| 57 | 12% | 35% | Last Result, Median |
| 58 | 9% | 23% | |
| 59 | 6% | 14% | |
| 60 | 5% | 7% | |
| 61 | 2% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 44 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 45 | 3% | 97% | |
| 46 | 6% | 94% | |
| 47 | 9% | 88% | |
| 48 | 11% | 80% | |
| 49 | 16% | 69% | |
| 50 | 19% | 52% | Median |
| 51 | 16% | 33% | |
| 52 | 7% | 17% | |
| 53 | 6% | 10% | |
| 54 | 3% | 4% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 34 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 35 | 5% | 98% | |
| 36 | 18% | 92% | |
| 37 | 22% | 75% | |
| 38 | 11% | 53% | Median |
| 39 | 14% | 42% | |
| 40 | 10% | 28% | Last Result |
| 41 | 8% | 17% | |
| 42 | 5% | 9% | |
| 43 | 3% | 4% | |
| 44 | 1.1% | 1.5% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Sigma Dos
- Commissioner(s): El Mundo
- Fieldwork period: 6 February 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.84%