Opinion Poll by Demoscopia y Servicios, 5–7 February 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 22.1% | 20.0–24.5% | 19.4–25.2% | 18.9–25.8% | 17.9–26.9% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 21.4% | 19.3–23.8% | 18.7–24.4% | 18.2–25.0% | 17.3–26.2% |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 20.7% | 18.6–23.0% | 18.1–23.7% | 17.6–24.3% | 16.6–25.4% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 8.2% | 6.9–9.9% | 6.5–10.4% | 6.2–10.8% | 5.6–11.6% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.9–8.7% | 5.6–9.2% | 5.3–9.6% | 4.8–10.4% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.6–7.2% | 4.3–7.6% | 4.1–8.0% | 3.6–8.7% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 5.7% | 4.6–7.2% | 4.3–7.6% | 4.1–8.0% | 3.6–8.7% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.3–6.8% | 4.0–7.2% | 3.8–7.6% | 3.3–8.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 30 | 27–34 | 26–35 | 25–36 | 24–37 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 35 | 31–38 | 30–39 | 29–40 | 27–42 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 31 | 28–35 | 27–36 | 26–37 | 24–39 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 10 | 8–13 | 8–13 | 7–14 | 6–16 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 6–10 | 5–11 | 5–11 | 4–13 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 8 | 5–9 | 4–10 | 4–11 | 3–11 |
| Vox | 0 | 7 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 3–10 | 3–12 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 7 | 5–9 | 3–9 | 3–10 | 3–11 |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 26 | 7% | 97% | |
| 27 | 10% | 90% | |
| 28 | 8% | 80% | |
| 29 | 10% | 72% | |
| 30 | 14% | 62% | Median |
| 31 | 18% | 48% | |
| 32 | 13% | 30% | |
| 33 | 6% | 17% | |
| 34 | 5% | 11% | |
| 35 | 3% | 6% | |
| 36 | 2% | 3% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 29 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 30 | 3% | 96% | |
| 31 | 13% | 93% | |
| 32 | 10% | 80% | |
| 33 | 8% | 70% | |
| 34 | 8% | 62% | Last Result |
| 35 | 17% | 54% | Median |
| 36 | 12% | 36% | |
| 37 | 14% | 24% | |
| 38 | 4% | 10% | |
| 39 | 2% | 6% | |
| 40 | 2% | 4% | |
| 41 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 26 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 27 | 4% | 96% | |
| 28 | 13% | 92% | |
| 29 | 11% | 79% | |
| 30 | 12% | 69% | |
| 31 | 15% | 57% | Median |
| 32 | 11% | 42% | Last Result |
| 33 | 13% | 30% | |
| 34 | 7% | 18% | |
| 35 | 6% | 11% | |
| 36 | 2% | 5% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 8 | 19% | 97% | |
| 9 | 17% | 77% | |
| 10 | 11% | 60% | Median |
| 11 | 8% | 50% | |
| 12 | 25% | 42% | |
| 13 | 12% | 17% | |
| 14 | 4% | 5% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 5 | 7% | 99.3% | |
| 6 | 8% | 92% | |
| 7 | 18% | 84% | |
| 8 | 35% | 66% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 13% | 32% | |
| 10 | 9% | 18% | |
| 11 | 7% | 9% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 5% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 5 | 6% | 94% | |
| 6 | 5% | 87% | |
| 7 | 22% | 83% | |
| 8 | 41% | 61% | Median |
| 9 | 14% | 20% | |
| 10 | 3% | 6% | |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 2% | 97% | |
| 5 | 16% | 96% | |
| 6 | 11% | 80% | |
| 7 | 40% | 69% | Median |
| 8 | 8% | 29% | |
| 9 | 14% | 21% | |
| 10 | 6% | 7% | |
| 11 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 6% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 3% | 93% | Last Result |
| 5 | 24% | 90% | |
| 6 | 12% | 66% | |
| 7 | 37% | 54% | Median |
| 8 | 6% | 17% | |
| 9 | 8% | 11% | |
| 10 | 2% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 73 | 96% | 69–77 | 68–78 | 67–80 | 64–82 |
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 73 | 96% | 69–78 | 68–79 | 67–80 | 65–82 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 69 | 67% | 65–74 | 64–75 | 63–76 | 61–78 |
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 66 | 66 | 28% | 61–69 | 60–71 | 59–72 | 57–74 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 55 | 0% | 51–59 | 50–61 | 49–61 | 47–64 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular | 57 | 54 | 0% | 50–58 | 49–59 | 48–60 | 45–62 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 47 | 0% | 43–51 | 42–52 | 41–53 | 39–55 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 39 | 0% | 35–43 | 35–44 | 33–45 | 31–47 |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 66 | 1.0% | 98.8% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 4% | 96% | Majority |
| 69 | 11% | 91% | |
| 70 | 6% | 80% | Last Result |
| 71 | 9% | 74% | |
| 72 | 8% | 65% | |
| 73 | 11% | 57% | |
| 74 | 11% | 47% | Median |
| 75 | 12% | 35% | |
| 76 | 13% | 24% | |
| 77 | 3% | 11% | |
| 78 | 4% | 8% | |
| 79 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 80 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 81 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 66 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 4% | 96% | Majority |
| 69 | 5% | 92% | |
| 70 | 8% | 87% | |
| 71 | 6% | 79% | |
| 72 | 12% | 73% | |
| 73 | 12% | 61% | |
| 74 | 12% | 50% | Last Result, Median |
| 75 | 9% | 37% | |
| 76 | 12% | 28% | |
| 77 | 7% | 17% | |
| 78 | 4% | 10% | |
| 79 | 3% | 6% | |
| 80 | 2% | 3% | |
| 81 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 62 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 63 | 2% | 98% | |
| 64 | 3% | 96% | |
| 65 | 4% | 92% | |
| 66 | 10% | 88% | |
| 67 | 11% | 78% | |
| 68 | 7% | 67% | Majority |
| 69 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 70 | 12% | 47% | |
| 71 | 9% | 35% | |
| 72 | 10% | 26% | |
| 73 | 6% | 16% | |
| 74 | 5% | 10% | |
| 75 | 2% | 6% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | |
| 77 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 59 | 2% | 98% | |
| 60 | 5% | 97% | |
| 61 | 6% | 92% | |
| 62 | 7% | 86% | |
| 63 | 7% | 79% | |
| 64 | 11% | 72% | |
| 65 | 11% | 61% | |
| 66 | 9% | 50% | Last Result, Median |
| 67 | 13% | 41% | |
| 68 | 14% | 28% | Majority |
| 69 | 5% | 14% | |
| 70 | 3% | 9% | |
| 71 | 2% | 6% | |
| 72 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 73 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 48 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 49 | 2% | 98% | |
| 50 | 4% | 95% | |
| 51 | 3% | 91% | |
| 52 | 11% | 88% | |
| 53 | 11% | 77% | |
| 54 | 12% | 67% | |
| 55 | 11% | 54% | Median |
| 56 | 11% | 43% | |
| 57 | 8% | 32% | |
| 58 | 6% | 24% | |
| 59 | 9% | 18% | |
| 60 | 4% | 9% | |
| 61 | 3% | 5% | |
| 62 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 47 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 48 | 2% | 98% | |
| 49 | 4% | 96% | |
| 50 | 7% | 92% | |
| 51 | 8% | 85% | |
| 52 | 10% | 77% | |
| 53 | 11% | 67% | |
| 54 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 55 | 10% | 44% | |
| 56 | 10% | 34% | |
| 57 | 8% | 24% | Last Result |
| 58 | 7% | 16% | |
| 59 | 5% | 10% | |
| 60 | 2% | 4% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 40 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 41 | 3% | 98% | |
| 42 | 4% | 95% | |
| 43 | 7% | 92% | |
| 44 | 6% | 84% | |
| 45 | 10% | 78% | |
| 46 | 14% | 69% | |
| 47 | 11% | 54% | Median |
| 48 | 11% | 43% | |
| 49 | 8% | 33% | |
| 50 | 8% | 24% | |
| 51 | 8% | 16% | |
| 52 | 4% | 8% | |
| 53 | 2% | 4% | |
| 54 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 33 | 1.5% | 98.9% | |
| 34 | 2% | 97% | |
| 35 | 5% | 95% | |
| 36 | 12% | 90% | |
| 37 | 12% | 78% | |
| 38 | 9% | 65% | |
| 39 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 40 | 11% | 44% | Last Result |
| 41 | 11% | 33% | |
| 42 | 10% | 22% | |
| 43 | 5% | 12% | |
| 44 | 3% | 7% | |
| 45 | 2% | 4% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Demoscopia y Servicios
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 5–7 February 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 560
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.19%