Opinion Poll by GESOP, 5–7 February 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 22.6% | 20.7–24.7% | 20.2–25.3% | 19.7–25.8% | 18.9–26.8% |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 20.2% | 18.4–22.2% | 17.8–22.7% | 17.4–23.2% | 16.6–24.2% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 19.4% | 17.6–21.3% | 17.1–21.9% | 16.7–22.4% | 15.9–23.3% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 7.3% | 6.2–8.7% | 5.9–9.1% | 5.6–9.4% | 5.2–10.1% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 7.2% | 6.1–8.5% | 5.8–8.9% | 5.5–9.3% | 5.0–10.0% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.1–8.5% | 5.8–8.9% | 5.5–9.3% | 5.0–10.0% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 6.8% | 5.7–8.1% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.2–8.8% | 4.7–9.5% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.5–5.5% | 3.3–5.8% | 3.1–6.1% | 2.7–6.6% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.3–2.6% | 1.1–2.8% | 1.0–3.0% | 0.8–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 32 | 28–35 | 27–36 | 27–37 | 26–38 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 31 | 28–34 | 27–35 | 26–36 | 25–38 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 31 | 29–35 | 27–36 | 26–37 | 25–38 |
| Vox | 0 | 10 | 8–12 | 7–12 | 7–13 | 6–14 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 9 | 7–12 | 7–12 | 6–12 | 5–13 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 7–10 | 5–11 | 5–11 | 5–13 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 9 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–14 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 5 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 2–7 | 0–9 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–4 |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 6% | 98% | |
| 28 | 3% | 92% | |
| 29 | 10% | 89% | |
| 30 | 6% | 78% | |
| 31 | 22% | 72% | |
| 32 | 16% | 51% | Median |
| 33 | 12% | 35% | |
| 34 | 9% | 23% | |
| 35 | 9% | 14% | |
| 36 | 3% | 5% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 27 | 4% | 97% | |
| 28 | 14% | 93% | |
| 29 | 13% | 79% | |
| 30 | 12% | 66% | |
| 31 | 8% | 54% | Median |
| 32 | 19% | 46% | Last Result |
| 33 | 9% | 26% | |
| 34 | 8% | 17% | |
| 35 | 4% | 9% | |
| 36 | 4% | 5% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 27 | 4% | 97% | |
| 28 | 2% | 93% | |
| 29 | 13% | 91% | |
| 30 | 8% | 78% | |
| 31 | 20% | 70% | Median |
| 32 | 14% | 50% | |
| 33 | 18% | 36% | |
| 34 | 5% | 18% | Last Result |
| 35 | 6% | 13% | |
| 36 | 5% | 8% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 9% | 99.3% | |
| 8 | 13% | 90% | |
| 9 | 22% | 77% | |
| 10 | 30% | 55% | Median |
| 11 | 9% | 26% | |
| 12 | 13% | 16% | |
| 13 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 7 | 10% | 95% | |
| 8 | 32% | 86% | |
| 9 | 12% | 53% | Median |
| 10 | 15% | 41% | |
| 11 | 12% | 26% | |
| 12 | 13% | 15% | |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 3% | 95% | |
| 7 | 17% | 92% | |
| 8 | 38% | 75% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 22% | 37% | |
| 10 | 9% | 16% | |
| 11 | 5% | 7% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 13 | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 6% | 99.4% | |
| 8 | 30% | 94% | |
| 9 | 40% | 64% | Median |
| 10 | 6% | 24% | |
| 11 | 15% | 17% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 13 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 2 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 3 | 21% | 96% | |
| 4 | 21% | 75% | Last Result |
| 5 | 24% | 54% | Median |
| 6 | 17% | 31% | |
| 7 | 13% | 14% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 71 | 89% | 67–75 | 67–77 | 66–78 | 64–79 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 70 | 71 | 90% | 67–75 | 67–77 | 66–78 | 64–79 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 71 | 84% | 67–74 | 66–76 | 65–77 | 63–78 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 71 | 86% | 67–75 | 66–76 | 65–77 | 63–79 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 63 | 5% | 58–66 | 57–68 | 57–69 | 55–70 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 66 | 63 | 6% | 59–66 | 57–68 | 57–69 | 55–70 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Vox – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 55 | 0% | 51–59 | 50–60 | 49–61 | 47–63 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 65 | 54 | 0% | 49–57 | 49–59 | 48–60 | 46–61 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 46 | 0% | 41–49 | 40–50 | 40–51 | 38–53 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 39 | 0% | 36–43 | 35–43 | 34–44 | 33–46 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 66 | 3% | 98% | |
| 67 | 6% | 95% | |
| 68 | 5% | 89% | Majority |
| 69 | 10% | 84% | |
| 70 | 10% | 74% | Last Result |
| 71 | 17% | 64% | Median |
| 72 | 10% | 47% | |
| 73 | 10% | 37% | |
| 74 | 12% | 27% | |
| 75 | 7% | 15% | |
| 76 | 2% | 8% | |
| 77 | 3% | 6% | |
| 78 | 2% | 3% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 66 | 3% | 98% | |
| 67 | 6% | 96% | |
| 68 | 5% | 90% | Majority |
| 69 | 9% | 85% | |
| 70 | 10% | 75% | Last Result |
| 71 | 18% | 66% | Median |
| 72 | 10% | 48% | |
| 73 | 10% | 38% | |
| 74 | 12% | 28% | |
| 75 | 7% | 16% | |
| 76 | 3% | 9% | |
| 77 | 3% | 6% | |
| 78 | 2% | 3% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 65 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 66 | 3% | 95% | |
| 67 | 8% | 92% | |
| 68 | 5% | 84% | Majority |
| 69 | 12% | 79% | |
| 70 | 15% | 67% | Median |
| 71 | 12% | 52% | |
| 72 | 9% | 39% | |
| 73 | 14% | 30% | |
| 74 | 8% | 16% | Last Result |
| 75 | 2% | 8% | |
| 76 | 2% | 6% | |
| 77 | 3% | 4% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 64 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 6% | 96% | |
| 67 | 4% | 90% | |
| 68 | 14% | 86% | Majority |
| 69 | 8% | 72% | |
| 70 | 12% | 64% | |
| 71 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 72 | 15% | 44% | |
| 73 | 8% | 29% | |
| 74 | 7% | 20% | |
| 75 | 5% | 13% | |
| 76 | 3% | 8% | |
| 77 | 3% | 5% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 79 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 57 | 4% | 98% | |
| 58 | 5% | 94% | |
| 59 | 8% | 90% | |
| 60 | 7% | 82% | |
| 61 | 10% | 75% | |
| 62 | 14% | 65% | Median |
| 63 | 14% | 50% | |
| 64 | 9% | 36% | |
| 65 | 15% | 28% | |
| 66 | 4% | 13% | Last Result |
| 67 | 3% | 8% | |
| 68 | 3% | 5% | Majority |
| 69 | 2% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 57 | 4% | 98% | |
| 58 | 4% | 94% | |
| 59 | 8% | 90% | |
| 60 | 6% | 82% | |
| 61 | 11% | 76% | |
| 62 | 14% | 65% | Median |
| 63 | 15% | 52% | |
| 64 | 9% | 37% | |
| 65 | 15% | 29% | |
| 66 | 4% | 13% | Last Result |
| 67 | 4% | 9% | |
| 68 | 3% | 6% | Majority |
| 69 | 2% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Vox – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 49 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 50 | 3% | 96% | |
| 51 | 4% | 94% | |
| 52 | 5% | 89% | |
| 53 | 13% | 84% | |
| 54 | 11% | 71% | |
| 55 | 10% | 60% | |
| 56 | 18% | 49% | Median |
| 57 | 11% | 32% | Last Result |
| 58 | 8% | 21% | |
| 59 | 5% | 12% | |
| 60 | 5% | 7% | |
| 61 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 47 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 48 | 3% | 98% | |
| 49 | 6% | 96% | |
| 50 | 4% | 90% | |
| 51 | 7% | 86% | |
| 52 | 11% | 79% | |
| 53 | 13% | 68% | |
| 54 | 17% | 54% | Median |
| 55 | 9% | 38% | |
| 56 | 14% | 29% | |
| 57 | 6% | 15% | |
| 58 | 3% | 9% | |
| 59 | 3% | 6% | |
| 60 | 3% | 4% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 40 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 41 | 5% | 94% | |
| 42 | 5% | 89% | |
| 43 | 8% | 84% | |
| 44 | 12% | 77% | |
| 45 | 10% | 65% | |
| 46 | 22% | 55% | Median |
| 47 | 10% | 33% | |
| 48 | 9% | 23% | |
| 49 | 7% | 15% | |
| 50 | 5% | 8% | |
| 51 | 2% | 3% | |
| 52 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 34 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 35 | 5% | 96% | |
| 36 | 7% | 91% | |
| 37 | 18% | 84% | |
| 38 | 10% | 67% | |
| 39 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 40 | 11% | 46% | Last Result |
| 41 | 14% | 36% | |
| 42 | 9% | 21% | |
| 43 | 8% | 12% | |
| 44 | 2% | 4% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GESOP
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 5–7 February 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 739
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.18%