Opinion Poll by Celeste-Tel, 8 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 21.9% 20.0–23.9% 19.5–24.5% 19.1–25.0% 18.2–26.0%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 20.0% 18.2–22.0% 17.7–22.5% 17.3–23.0% 16.5–24.0%
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 19.7% 18.0–21.7% 17.5–22.3% 17.0–22.7% 16.2–23.7%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 10.1% 8.8–11.7% 8.5–12.1% 8.2–12.5% 7.6–13.3%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 7.5% 6.4–8.8% 6.1–9.2% 5.8–9.6% 5.3–10.3%
Vox 0.0% 6.0% 5.0–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.5–7.9% 4.1–8.6%
Partit Popular 4.2% 5.6% 4.6–6.8% 4.4–7.2% 4.2–7.5% 3.7–8.1%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 5.3% 4.4–6.5% 4.2–6.9% 3.9–7.2% 3.5–7.8%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0.0% 1.5% 1.0–2.2% 0.9–2.4% 0.8–2.6% 0.7–3.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 31 27–32 26–34 26–34 25–36
Junts per Catalunya 34 32 30–34 27–35 27–37 26–39
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 29 27–33 26–34 26–35 24–36
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 13 12–15 12–16 10–17 9–18
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 8 7–11 6–11 5–11 5–13
Vox 0 7 5–9 5–10 5–10 4–11
Partit Popular 4 7 6–9 5–9 4–9 3–11
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 7 5–8 4–8 4–9 3–10
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.1% 99.8%  
26 4% 98.7%  
27 9% 94%  
28 8% 86%  
29 12% 78%  
30 13% 66%  
31 20% 53% Median
32 24% 32%  
33 3% 8%  
34 3% 5%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.4% 0.6%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 1.0% 99.6%  
27 4% 98.6%  
28 1.1% 95%  
29 4% 94%  
30 7% 90%  
31 22% 83%  
32 15% 61% Median
33 20% 46%  
34 18% 26% Last Result
35 3% 8%  
36 2% 5%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.3% 0.9%  
39 0.4% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 0.6% 99.6%  
25 1.1% 99.0%  
26 4% 98%  
27 9% 94%  
28 27% 85%  
29 16% 58% Median
30 12% 42%  
31 10% 29%  
32 8% 19% Last Result
33 3% 11%  
34 5% 8%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.6% 0.7%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 1.1% 99.7%  
10 1.5% 98.6%  
11 2% 97%  
12 17% 95%  
13 47% 79% Median
14 19% 32%  
15 4% 13%  
16 5% 9%  
17 2% 4%  
18 1.3% 1.5%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100%  
6 3% 97%  
7 12% 93%  
8 37% 81% Last Result, Median
9 13% 44%  
10 18% 30%  
11 10% 12%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.5% 0.7%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 0.4% 99.6%  
5 10% 99.2%  
6 10% 89%  
7 43% 79% Median
8 8% 36%  
9 21% 29%  
10 5% 7%  
11 1.2% 2%  
12 0.5% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 1.5% 98% Last Result
5 6% 96%  
6 15% 90%  
7 51% 75% Median
8 3% 24%  
9 20% 22%  
10 1.0% 2%  
11 0.4% 0.7%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.9% 99.9%  
4 8% 99.0% Last Result
5 10% 91%  
6 9% 82%  
7 44% 73% Median
8 25% 29%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.9% 1.4%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 71 82% 66–74 66–75 65–76 63–78
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 68 64% 65–72 64–73 63–74 61–75
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 70 68 70% 65–72 64–73 64–73 62–76
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 68 70% 65–72 64–73 63–73 62–75
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 66 62 2% 58–65 57–66 56–67 54–69
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 66 62 2% 58–65 57–66 56–67 54–69
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 59 0.1% 56–63 55–64 54–64 52–66
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular 57 58 0% 55–61 54–62 52–63 51–65
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 51 0% 47–54 46–55 45–56 44–58
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 38 0% 35–42 35–43 34–43 32–45

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.5%  
64 1.4% 99.2%  
65 2% 98%  
66 6% 96%  
67 8% 90%  
68 10% 82% Majority
69 15% 71% Median
70 6% 57%  
71 17% 51%  
72 17% 34%  
73 6% 17%  
74 5% 11% Last Result
75 3% 6%  
76 1.3% 3%  
77 1.0% 2%  
78 0.2% 0.7%  
79 0.4% 0.4%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.7%  
62 0.8% 99.3%  
63 1.5% 98.6%  
64 3% 97%  
65 5% 95%  
66 9% 89%  
67 16% 80%  
68 21% 64% Median, Majority
69 16% 43%  
70 8% 26%  
71 7% 18%  
72 5% 11%  
73 4% 6%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.5% 0.7%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 0.5% 99.5%  
63 1.4% 99.0%  
64 4% 98%  
65 8% 94%  
66 9% 85%  
67 6% 76%  
68 27% 70% Median, Majority
69 15% 44%  
70 9% 29% Last Result
71 8% 20%  
72 6% 12%  
73 4% 6%  
74 1.2% 2%  
75 0.7% 1.2%  
76 0.3% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 0.5% 99.5%  
63 2% 99.0%  
64 4% 97%  
65 8% 94%  
66 9% 85%  
67 6% 76%  
68 26% 70% Median, Majority
69 15% 44%  
70 9% 29% Last Result
71 8% 20%  
72 6% 12%  
73 4% 6%  
74 1.2% 2%  
75 0.6% 1.1%  
76 0.3% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 0.9% 99.5%  
56 2% 98.6%  
57 4% 97%  
58 7% 92%  
59 7% 85%  
60 10% 78%  
61 15% 68% Median
62 16% 53%  
63 17% 37%  
64 8% 20%  
65 4% 12%  
66 4% 8% Last Result
67 2% 4%  
68 1.0% 2% Majority
69 0.5% 0.8%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 0.8% 99.5%  
56 2% 98.6%  
57 5% 97%  
58 7% 93%  
59 7% 85%  
60 9% 78%  
61 15% 68% Median
62 16% 53%  
63 17% 37%  
64 7% 20%  
65 5% 13%  
66 4% 8% Last Result
67 2% 4%  
68 1.0% 2% Majority
69 0.5% 0.8%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.6% 99.8%  
53 0.9% 99.2%  
54 2% 98%  
55 6% 96%  
56 6% 90%  
57 8% 84%  
58 11% 77%  
59 19% 66% Median
60 19% 46%  
61 10% 27%  
62 6% 17%  
63 6% 11%  
64 3% 5%  
65 0.7% 2% Last Result
66 0.8% 1.1%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0% 0.1% Majority
69 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 1.1% 99.7%  
52 1.3% 98.6%  
53 2% 97%  
54 4% 96%  
55 8% 92%  
56 12% 84%  
57 15% 72% Last Result
58 12% 57% Median
59 18% 45%  
60 10% 27%  
61 7% 16%  
62 5% 10%  
63 3% 5%  
64 1.0% 2%  
65 0.5% 0.9%  
66 0.3% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0% Majority

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 1.1% 99.6%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 97%  
47 6% 93%  
48 9% 87%  
49 8% 78%  
50 20% 71%  
51 10% 50% Median
52 19% 41%  
53 9% 21%  
54 7% 13%  
55 2% 6%  
56 2% 4%  
57 0.9% 1.4% Last Result
58 0.3% 0.5%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.4% 99.7%  
33 1.3% 99.3%  
34 3% 98%  
35 11% 95%  
36 16% 84%  
37 10% 68% Median
38 19% 58%  
39 11% 39%  
40 11% 28% Last Result
41 6% 17%  
42 6% 11%  
43 3% 5%  
44 1.1% 2%  
45 0.6% 1.0%  
46 0.2% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations