Opinion Poll by Feedback for El Nacional, 1–8 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 21.3% 19.7–23.0% 19.3–23.5% 18.9–24.0% 18.1–24.8%
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 20.1% 18.5–21.8% 18.1–22.3% 17.7–22.7% 17.0–23.5%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 19.7% 18.2–21.4% 17.7–21.9% 17.3–22.3% 16.6–23.1%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 8.7% 7.7–10.0% 7.3–10.3% 7.1–10.6% 6.6–11.2%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.2–9.4%
Vox 0.0% 5.7% 4.9–6.8% 4.6–7.1% 4.4–7.3% 4.1–7.9%
Partit Popular 4.2% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 30 27–32 26–33 26–34 25–35
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 31 29–34 28–35 28–36 26–37
Junts per Catalunya 34 33 30–36 29–37 29–37 27–38
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 12 11–13 9–13 9–14 8–15
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 10 9–11 8–12 8–13 8–15
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 8 7–10 7–11 6–11 5–12
Vox 0 7 6–9 5–9 5–9 4–11
Partit Popular 4 3 2–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.9%  
26 4% 99.4%  
27 6% 95%  
28 10% 89%  
29 14% 79%  
30 19% 65% Median
31 26% 46%  
32 10% 19%  
33 5% 9%  
34 4% 5%  
35 0.7% 1.1%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 1.3% 99.5%  
28 7% 98%  
29 15% 91%  
30 14% 76%  
31 14% 62% Median
32 17% 48% Last Result
33 18% 31%  
34 5% 13%  
35 5% 8%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.7% 0.9%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 0.6% 99.7%  
28 1.0% 99.0%  
29 5% 98%  
30 6% 93%  
31 22% 87%  
32 14% 65%  
33 19% 51% Median
34 4% 32% Last Result
35 12% 28%  
36 10% 16%  
37 5% 6%  
38 1.1% 1.3%  
39 0.1% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 2% 100%  
9 3% 98%  
10 5% 95%  
11 14% 90%  
12 45% 76% Median
13 26% 31%  
14 4% 5%  
15 0.4% 0.9%  
16 0.4% 0.5%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 7% 99.9%  
9 28% 93%  
10 19% 65% Median
11 36% 46%  
12 5% 9%  
13 3% 5%  
14 1.1% 2%  
15 0.6% 0.6%  
16 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 3% 98%  
7 14% 95%  
8 37% 81% Last Result, Median
9 25% 44%  
10 12% 19%  
11 6% 7%  
12 0.5% 0.8%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 0.6% 99.8%  
5 7% 99.2%  
6 12% 92%  
7 59% 80% Median
8 6% 21%  
9 12% 14%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.5% 0.6%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 0% 92%  
2 10% 92%  
3 55% 82% Median
4 9% 28% Last Result
5 16% 19%  
6 2% 3%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 74 99.7% 71–77 70–79 69–80 68–81
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 70 74 99.7% 71–77 70–79 69–80 68–81
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 73 98% 69–75 68–76 68–77 66–79
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 70 81% 66–73 66–74 65–75 63–77
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 64 8% 61–67 60–68 59–69 58–71
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 66 64 8% 61–67 60–68 59–69 58–71
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 54 0% 50–57 49–58 49–59 47–60
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular 57 53 0% 49–55 48–56 47–57 46–59
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 45 0% 42–49 41–49 41–50 39–51
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 40 0% 37–43 36–43 36–44 35–45

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 1.1% 99.7% Majority
69 2% 98.6%  
70 3% 97% Last Result
71 4% 94%  
72 13% 90%  
73 15% 77%  
74 17% 62% Median
75 18% 44%  
76 8% 26%  
77 9% 18%  
78 4% 9%  
79 3% 6%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.4% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 1.1% 99.7% Majority
69 2% 98.6%  
70 3% 97% Last Result
71 4% 94%  
72 13% 90%  
73 15% 77%  
74 17% 62% Median
75 18% 44%  
76 8% 26%  
77 9% 18%  
78 4% 9%  
79 3% 6%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.4% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.7%  
67 1.5% 99.1%  
68 3% 98% Majority
69 7% 95%  
70 9% 88%  
71 11% 79%  
72 15% 68% Median
73 16% 54%  
74 20% 38% Last Result
75 9% 17%  
76 4% 8%  
77 3% 5%  
78 1.0% 2%  
79 0.3% 0.6%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.5% 99.9%  
64 1.4% 99.4%  
65 2% 98%  
66 6% 96%  
67 9% 90%  
68 14% 81% Majority
69 13% 67% Median
70 14% 54%  
71 13% 40%  
72 8% 27%  
73 13% 19%  
74 3% 6%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.7% 1.3%  
77 0.5% 0.6%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 0.8% 99.6%  
59 3% 98.7%  
60 4% 96%  
61 7% 92%  
62 10% 86%  
63 17% 76%  
64 15% 59% Median
65 17% 44%  
66 13% 27% Last Result
67 5% 13%  
68 4% 8% Majority
69 3% 4%  
70 0.5% 1.0%  
71 0.4% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 0.8% 99.6%  
59 3% 98.7%  
60 4% 96%  
61 7% 92%  
62 10% 86%  
63 17% 76%  
64 15% 59% Median
65 17% 44%  
66 13% 27% Last Result
67 5% 13%  
68 4% 8% Majority
69 3% 4%  
70 0.5% 1.0%  
71 0.4% 0.6%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.8%  
48 1.2% 99.4%  
49 4% 98%  
50 5% 94%  
51 7% 89%  
52 11% 82%  
53 18% 71% Median
54 19% 53%  
55 11% 34%  
56 12% 23%  
57 5% 11%  
58 4% 6%  
59 1.5% 3%  
60 0.9% 1.2%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.6%  
47 3% 99.2%  
48 3% 96%  
49 4% 93%  
50 12% 89%  
51 14% 77%  
52 12% 62% Median
53 22% 50%  
54 12% 29%  
55 8% 17%  
56 5% 9%  
57 2% 4% Last Result
58 1.2% 2%  
59 0.6% 0.7%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.5% 99.7%  
40 2% 99.2%  
41 4% 98%  
42 5% 93%  
43 12% 88%  
44 14% 76%  
45 16% 62% Median
46 21% 46%  
47 9% 25%  
48 5% 16%  
49 8% 11%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.7% 1.1%  
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.8%  
35 1.1% 99.5%  
36 5% 98%  
37 13% 94%  
38 10% 81%  
39 16% 71% Median
40 17% 55% Last Result
41 15% 38%  
42 12% 23%  
43 8% 12%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.7% 1.1%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations