Opinion Poll by GESOP for El Periòdic, 6–8 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 22.6% 20.1–25.3% 19.4–26.1% 18.8–26.8% 17.7–28.2%
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 20.7% 18.3–23.4% 17.6–24.1% 17.1–24.8% 16.0–26.1%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 20.7% 18.3–23.4% 17.6–24.1% 17.1–24.8% 16.0–26.1%
Vox 0.0% 7.1% 5.7–9.0% 5.4–9.5% 5.0–10.0% 4.5–11.0%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 6.9% 5.5–8.7% 5.2–9.3% 4.8–9.7% 4.3–10.7%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 6.7% 5.3–8.5% 5.0–9.0% 4.6–9.4% 4.1–10.4%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 6.4% 5.1–8.2% 4.8–8.7% 4.5–9.2% 3.9–10.1%
Partit Popular 4.2% 4.5% 3.5–6.1% 3.2–6.5% 2.9–7.0% 2.5–7.8%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0.0% 1.2% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.5% 0.5–2.7% 0.4–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 32 27–35 26–36 26–37 24–39
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 32 28–36 26–38 26–38 23–40
Junts per Catalunya 34 33 29–37 28–38 27–39 26–41
Vox 0 9 7–12 7–13 6–14 5–15
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 8 5–11 5–11 5–11 4–13
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 9 7–11 7–12 6–13 4–15
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 8 5–11 5–12 5–12 4–13
Partit Popular 4 5 3–7 2–8 2–9 0–10
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.6% 99.9%  
25 0.9% 99.3%  
26 5% 98%  
27 5% 93%  
28 4% 88%  
29 12% 84%  
30 7% 72%  
31 12% 65%  
32 20% 53% Median
33 10% 33%  
34 9% 23%  
35 5% 13%  
36 4% 8%  
37 2% 4%  
38 1.0% 2%  
39 0.5% 0.7%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.7%  
24 0.7% 99.4%  
25 1.0% 98.7%  
26 3% 98%  
27 3% 95%  
28 9% 92%  
29 9% 83%  
30 9% 74%  
31 12% 65%  
32 18% 54% Last Result, Median
33 14% 36%  
34 5% 22%  
35 7% 17%  
36 2% 10%  
37 3% 8%  
38 4% 5%  
39 0.6% 1.3%  
40 0.4% 0.7%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.8%  
26 1.4% 99.5%  
27 1.3% 98%  
28 2% 97%  
29 5% 95%  
30 5% 90%  
31 20% 85%  
32 12% 65%  
33 14% 54% Median
34 5% 40% Last Result
35 9% 35%  
36 5% 26%  
37 14% 21%  
38 3% 6%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.8% 2%  
41 0.4% 0.9%  
42 0.2% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.1% 99.9%  
5 1.3% 99.8%  
6 3% 98%  
7 20% 95%  
8 5% 76%  
9 27% 70% Median
10 14% 43%  
11 13% 30%  
12 11% 16%  
13 2% 5%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0.7% 0.8%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 2% 99.9%  
5 14% 98%  
6 5% 84%  
7 21% 79%  
8 31% 59% Last Result, Median
9 11% 27%  
10 7% 17%  
11 8% 10%  
12 1.1% 2%  
13 0.7% 1.1%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.9% 99.9% Last Result
5 1.2% 98.9%  
6 3% 98%  
7 7% 95%  
8 34% 88%  
9 25% 53% Median
10 7% 28%  
11 15% 21%  
12 2% 6%  
13 2% 4%  
14 0.6% 1.5%  
15 0.8% 0.9%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.4% 100%  
4 0.3% 99.6%  
5 11% 99.3%  
6 19% 88%  
7 11% 69%  
8 32% 59% Median
9 9% 27%  
10 5% 18%  
11 5% 13%  
12 6% 8%  
13 1.2% 1.3%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 4% 98%  
3 27% 94%  
4 8% 67% Last Result
5 17% 59% Median
6 18% 42%  
7 18% 24%  
8 2% 6%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.3% 0.6%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0.1% 0.3%  
4 0.1% 0.2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 74 94% 68–79 67–80 66–81 64–83
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 70 74 94% 68–79 67–80 66–81 64–83
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 73 89% 67–77 67–78 65–79 63–81
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 71 79% 65–76 64–77 63–78 61–80
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 66 65 24% 59–69 58–71 58–72 56–74
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 65 24% 59–69 58–71 57–71 56–74
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Vox – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 53 0% 49–59 48–60 46–61 44–63
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 65 52 0% 47–57 45–58 44–59 43–62
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 44 0% 40–49 38–50 37–51 35–53
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 40 0% 35–44 34–45 33–46 30–49

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 0.3% 99.7%  
65 1.2% 99.4%  
66 1.2% 98%  
67 3% 97%  
68 4% 94% Majority
69 4% 90%  
70 5% 86% Last Result
71 11% 81%  
72 10% 71%  
73 9% 61%  
74 12% 52% Median
75 7% 40%  
76 7% 33%  
77 10% 26%  
78 4% 16%  
79 4% 11%  
80 4% 8%  
81 2% 4%  
82 1.1% 2%  
83 0.5% 0.8%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 0.3% 99.7%  
65 1.2% 99.4%  
66 1.2% 98%  
67 3% 97%  
68 4% 94% Majority
69 4% 90%  
70 5% 86% Last Result
71 10% 82%  
72 10% 71%  
73 8% 61%  
74 12% 53% Median
75 8% 41%  
76 7% 33%  
77 10% 26%  
78 4% 16%  
79 4% 12%  
80 4% 8%  
81 2% 4%  
82 1.1% 2%  
83 0.5% 0.9%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.8%  
64 0.6% 99.4%  
65 1.3% 98.8%  
66 2% 97%  
67 6% 95%  
68 7% 89% Majority
69 4% 83%  
70 7% 79%  
71 10% 72%  
72 9% 62%  
73 12% 53% Median
74 11% 41% Last Result
75 6% 30%  
76 6% 23%  
77 8% 17%  
78 5% 9%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.3% 0.7%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.6% 99.7%  
62 1.4% 99.1%  
63 2% 98%  
64 2% 95%  
65 4% 93%  
66 5% 89%  
67 5% 84%  
68 7% 79% Majority
69 8% 72%  
70 8% 64%  
71 8% 55%  
72 16% 47% Median
73 6% 31%  
74 7% 25%  
75 5% 18%  
76 8% 13%  
77 3% 6%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.6% 1.4%  
80 0.4% 0.8%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.7%  
56 0.6% 99.5%  
57 1.4% 99.0%  
58 3% 98%  
59 5% 95%  
60 3% 90%  
61 5% 87%  
62 8% 82%  
63 9% 73%  
64 10% 64%  
65 11% 54% Median
66 10% 43% Last Result
67 8% 33%  
68 5% 24% Majority
69 10% 19%  
70 4% 10%  
71 4% 6%  
72 1.1% 3%  
73 0.7% 1.5%  
74 0.5% 0.8%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.7%  
56 0.6% 99.5%  
57 1.5% 98.9%  
58 3% 97%  
59 5% 95%  
60 3% 90%  
61 5% 86%  
62 8% 82%  
63 9% 73%  
64 11% 64%  
65 11% 53% Median
66 10% 42% Last Result
67 8% 32%  
68 5% 24% Majority
69 9% 19%  
70 3% 10%  
71 4% 6%  
72 1.0% 2%  
73 0.7% 1.4%  
74 0.5% 0.8%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Vox – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.3% 99.8%  
45 0.8% 99.4%  
46 1.5% 98.7%  
47 2% 97%  
48 5% 95%  
49 4% 90%  
50 9% 86%  
51 9% 77%  
52 11% 68%  
53 8% 58%  
54 11% 50% Median
55 10% 39%  
56 8% 29%  
57 6% 21% Last Result
58 3% 15%  
59 6% 12%  
60 4% 6%  
61 1.0% 3%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 0.5% 0.8%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.9% 99.6%  
44 2% 98.7%  
45 2% 97%  
46 2% 94%  
47 3% 93%  
48 6% 90%  
49 13% 84%  
50 9% 71%  
51 9% 62%  
52 11% 52%  
53 7% 41% Median
54 8% 34%  
55 7% 26%  
56 8% 19%  
57 4% 12%  
58 3% 7%  
59 2% 4%  
60 0.6% 2%  
61 0.6% 1.1%  
62 0.4% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.6% 99.8%  
36 0.5% 99.1%  
37 2% 98.7%  
38 2% 97%  
39 4% 95%  
40 5% 91%  
41 10% 86%  
42 12% 76%  
43 8% 64%  
44 10% 56%  
45 12% 46% Median
46 9% 34%  
47 8% 26%  
48 6% 18%  
49 4% 11%  
50 4% 7%  
51 1.3% 3%  
52 1.0% 2%  
53 0.5% 0.8%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.8%  
31 0.7% 99.4%  
32 1.1% 98.6%  
33 2% 98%  
34 3% 95%  
35 4% 92%  
36 12% 88%  
37 7% 76%  
38 8% 69%  
39 7% 61%  
40 21% 54% Last Result, Median
41 6% 33%  
42 8% 27%  
43 8% 19%  
44 3% 11%  
45 3% 8%  
46 2% 5%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.3% 0.8%  
49 0.4% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations