Opinion Poll by SocioMétrica for El Español, 18 January–8 February 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 21.0% | 20.0–22.1% | 19.7–22.4% | 19.4–22.7% | 18.9–23.2% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 20.4% | 19.4–21.5% | 19.1–21.8% | 18.8–22.1% | 18.4–22.6% |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 19.1% | 18.1–20.2% | 17.8–20.5% | 17.6–20.7% | 17.1–21.3% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 7.7% | 7.0–8.5% | 6.8–8.7% | 6.7–8.9% | 6.4–9.2% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 7.7% | 7.0–8.5% | 6.8–8.7% | 6.7–8.9% | 6.4–9.2% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.8–8.2% | 6.6–8.4% | 6.4–8.5% | 6.1–8.9% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.0–7.3% | 5.8–7.5% | 5.7–7.7% | 5.4–8.0% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.5–5.6% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.2–6.0% | 3.9–6.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 29 | 27–31 | 27–32 | 26–32 | 26–33 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 33 | 31–36 | 31–36 | 31–37 | 30–37 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 29 | 28–31 | 27–32 | 27–32 | 26–33 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 10 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–12 |
| Vox | 0 | 10 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–12 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 7–11 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 3–7 |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 10% | 96% | |
| 28 | 18% | 87% | |
| 29 | 22% | 68% | Median |
| 30 | 21% | 46% | |
| 31 | 19% | 25% | |
| 32 | 4% | 5% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 18% | 99.2% | |
| 32 | 16% | 81% | |
| 33 | 30% | 65% | Median |
| 34 | 13% | 35% | Last Result |
| 35 | 11% | 22% | |
| 36 | 8% | 11% | |
| 37 | 3% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 5% | 98% | |
| 28 | 24% | 94% | |
| 29 | 26% | 70% | Median |
| 30 | 23% | 44% | |
| 31 | 14% | 21% | |
| 32 | 6% | 7% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 18% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 27% | 82% | |
| 10 | 29% | 56% | Median |
| 11 | 11% | 27% | |
| 12 | 15% | 16% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 9 | 24% | 99.0% | |
| 10 | 43% | 75% | Median |
| 11 | 18% | 32% | |
| 12 | 14% | 14% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 56% | 95% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 25% | 38% | |
| 10 | 11% | 13% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 8 | 44% | 99.2% | |
| 9 | 45% | 55% | Median |
| 10 | 7% | 10% | |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 5 | 24% | 98% | |
| 6 | 40% | 74% | Median |
| 7 | 33% | 33% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 71 | 98% | 68–74 | 68–74 | 68–75 | 67–76 |
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 71 | 97% | 69–74 | 68–74 | 67–75 | 67–76 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 67 | 43% | 65–69 | 64–70 | 63–70 | 62–72 |
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 66 | 63 | 0.5% | 60–65 | 59–65 | 59–66 | 58–68 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular | 57 | 55 | 0% | 53–58 | 52–59 | 52–59 | 51–60 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 54 | 0% | 51–56 | 50–57 | 50–57 | 48–58 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 45 | 0% | 43–48 | 42–48 | 42–49 | 40–50 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 37 | 0% | 36–40 | 36–41 | 35–42 | 34–42 |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 67 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 68 | 9% | 98% | Majority |
| 69 | 14% | 89% | |
| 70 | 18% | 75% | Median |
| 71 | 16% | 57% | |
| 72 | 17% | 41% | |
| 73 | 12% | 24% | |
| 74 | 9% | 12% | Last Result |
| 75 | 2% | 3% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 6% | 97% | Majority |
| 69 | 9% | 91% | |
| 70 | 18% | 82% | Last Result |
| 71 | 20% | 64% | Median |
| 72 | 18% | 43% | |
| 73 | 12% | 25% | |
| 74 | 9% | 13% | |
| 75 | 2% | 3% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 64 | 5% | 97% | |
| 65 | 15% | 92% | |
| 66 | 12% | 78% | Median |
| 67 | 22% | 66% | |
| 68 | 21% | 43% | Majority |
| 69 | 13% | 22% | |
| 70 | 7% | 9% | |
| 71 | 2% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 5% | 99.3% | |
| 60 | 10% | 94% | |
| 61 | 15% | 84% | |
| 62 | 19% | 69% | Median |
| 63 | 20% | 50% | |
| 64 | 16% | 31% | |
| 65 | 10% | 15% | |
| 66 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 67 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 51 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 52 | 6% | 98% | |
| 53 | 13% | 92% | |
| 54 | 14% | 79% | |
| 55 | 18% | 65% | Median |
| 56 | 17% | 47% | |
| 57 | 16% | 31% | Last Result |
| 58 | 8% | 14% | |
| 59 | 5% | 6% | |
| 60 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 49 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 50 | 4% | 98% | |
| 51 | 6% | 95% | |
| 52 | 14% | 89% | |
| 53 | 24% | 75% | Median |
| 54 | 21% | 50% | |
| 55 | 13% | 29% | |
| 56 | 8% | 16% | |
| 57 | 6% | 8% | |
| 58 | 2% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 42 | 4% | 98% | |
| 43 | 15% | 94% | |
| 44 | 16% | 78% | |
| 45 | 20% | 62% | Median |
| 46 | 18% | 42% | |
| 47 | 12% | 24% | |
| 48 | 7% | 12% | |
| 49 | 4% | 5% | |
| 50 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 36 | 16% | 96% | |
| 37 | 31% | 80% | Median |
| 38 | 18% | 49% | |
| 39 | 12% | 31% | |
| 40 | 12% | 19% | Last Result |
| 41 | 4% | 6% | |
| 42 | 2% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SocioMétrica
- Commissioner(s): El Español
- Fieldwork period: 18 January–8 February 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 2376
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.59%