Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 8 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 22.0% 19.5–24.8% 18.8–25.6% 18.2–26.3% 17.1–27.7%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 20.8% 18.3–23.5% 17.6–24.3% 17.1–25.0% 16.0–26.4%
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 20.2% 17.8–23.0% 17.2–23.8% 16.6–24.5% 15.5–25.8%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 8.8% 7.2–10.8% 6.7–11.4% 6.4–11.9% 5.7–13.0%
Vox 0.0% 7.0% 5.6–8.9% 5.2–9.4% 4.9–9.9% 4.3–10.9%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 6.8% 5.4–8.6% 5.0–9.2% 4.7–9.6% 4.1–10.6%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 5.2% 4.1–7.0% 3.7–7.5% 3.5–7.9% 3.0–8.8%
Partit Popular 4.2% 5.0% 3.9–6.7% 3.5–7.2% 3.3–7.6% 2.8–8.5%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0.0% 1.5% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9% 0.7–3.2% 0.5–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 30 26–34 25–35 25–36 24–38
Junts per Catalunya 34 33 29–38 27–38 27–39 25–42
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 31 27–34 26–35 24–37 22–39
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 12 8–14 8–15 8–16 6–18
Vox 0 9 7–12 6–12 5–13 4–15
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 8 5–10 5–11 4–11 4–13
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 7 4–9 3–9 3–11 0–11
Partit Popular 4 6 3–8 3–9 3–10 0–11
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–5

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.3% 99.8%  
24 1.0% 99.5%  
25 4% 98.5%  
26 11% 95%  
27 9% 83%  
28 12% 75%  
29 8% 63%  
30 7% 56% Median
31 12% 49%  
32 16% 36%  
33 7% 20%  
34 6% 14%  
35 3% 8%  
36 2% 4%  
37 1.3% 2%  
38 0.5% 0.8%  
39 0.1% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.6% 99.8%  
26 0.9% 99.2%  
27 5% 98%  
28 2% 94%  
29 5% 91%  
30 5% 86%  
31 13% 81%  
32 17% 69%  
33 8% 52% Median
34 5% 44% Last Result
35 8% 39%  
36 9% 31%  
37 10% 21%  
38 7% 11%  
39 2% 5%  
40 1.3% 2%  
41 0.5% 1.2%  
42 0.3% 0.7%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.5% 99.8%  
23 0.5% 99.4%  
24 2% 98.9%  
25 2% 97%  
26 4% 96%  
27 4% 92%  
28 11% 88%  
29 10% 77%  
30 11% 67%  
31 14% 55% Median
32 13% 42% Last Result
33 9% 29%  
34 10% 20%  
35 5% 10%  
36 2% 4%  
37 1.4% 3%  
38 0.5% 1.1%  
39 0.3% 0.6%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.7% 99.9%  
7 0.9% 99.2%  
8 13% 98%  
9 9% 85%  
10 6% 76%  
11 6% 70%  
12 33% 64% Median
13 18% 31%  
14 8% 13%  
15 3% 5%  
16 1.1% 3%  
17 0.6% 1.4%  
18 0.7% 0.8%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 0.3% 99.8%  
5 2% 99.5%  
6 3% 97%  
7 20% 94%  
8 6% 74%  
9 26% 68% Median
10 19% 42%  
11 6% 23%  
12 13% 17%  
13 2% 4%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.5% 0.6%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 3% 99.7%  
5 12% 97%  
6 12% 85%  
7 18% 73%  
8 28% 54% Last Result, Median
9 12% 27%  
10 7% 15%  
11 6% 8%  
12 0.9% 2%  
13 1.1% 1.4%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 0% 99.3%  
2 1.1% 99.3%  
3 4% 98%  
4 14% 94% Last Result
5 6% 80%  
6 11% 74%  
7 22% 63% Median
8 26% 41%  
9 10% 14%  
10 2% 4%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 0% 99.1%  
2 1.2% 99.1%  
3 11% 98%  
4 7% 87% Last Result
5 28% 80%  
6 16% 52% Median
7 24% 36%  
8 4% 12%  
9 6% 8%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.6% 1.0%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 8%  
2 0% 1.5%  
3 0.4% 1.5%  
4 0.6% 1.1%  
5 0.4% 0.5%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 72 88% 67–76 65–78 64–79 61–81
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 70 84% 66–76 65–77 63–79 61–80
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 70 71 85% 67–76 65–77 63–79 61–80
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 69 57% 63–74 62–75 61–76 59–79
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 66 64 17% 60–69 58–70 57–71 54–74
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 66 64 16% 59–69 58–70 56–71 54–74
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular 57 57 0.2% 52–61 50–62 49–64 47–66
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 55 0.1% 50–60 49–61 48–63 46–65
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 47 0% 43–52 42–53 41–55 39–57
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 39 0% 34–43 33–43 31–44 29–47

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.7%  
62 0.4% 99.4%  
63 0.7% 99.0%  
64 0.9% 98%  
65 3% 97%  
66 3% 95%  
67 4% 91%  
68 6% 88% Majority
69 10% 81%  
70 6% 72%  
71 11% 66%  
72 15% 55% Median
73 7% 40%  
74 11% 33% Last Result
75 9% 21%  
76 4% 12%  
77 3% 8%  
78 2% 5%  
79 2% 4%  
80 1.1% 2%  
81 0.3% 0.6%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.3% 99.6%  
62 1.1% 99.3%  
63 1.4% 98%  
64 2% 97%  
65 2% 95%  
66 3% 93%  
67 5% 90%  
68 12% 84% Majority
69 12% 72%  
70 12% 61% Last Result
71 10% 49% Median
72 5% 39%  
73 10% 34%  
74 11% 25%  
75 3% 14%  
76 4% 11%  
77 2% 6%  
78 2% 5%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.7% 1.1%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.3% 99.7%  
62 1.0% 99.4%  
63 1.0% 98%  
64 2% 97%  
65 2% 96%  
66 3% 94%  
67 6% 91%  
68 12% 85% Majority
69 10% 73%  
70 13% 63% Last Result
71 10% 50% Median
72 5% 40%  
73 10% 35%  
74 11% 25%  
75 3% 15%  
76 5% 11%  
77 2% 7%  
78 2% 5%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.7% 1.1%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
58 0.2% 99.7%  
59 0.3% 99.5%  
60 1.2% 99.2%  
61 2% 98%  
62 2% 97%  
63 6% 94%  
64 6% 88%  
65 7% 82%  
66 9% 76%  
67 10% 67%  
68 6% 57% Majority
69 9% 51% Median
70 13% 42%  
71 5% 29%  
72 6% 24%  
73 5% 18%  
74 7% 13%  
75 3% 6%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.5% 1.3%  
78 0.3% 0.8%  
79 0.3% 0.6%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.7%  
55 0.7% 99.4%  
56 0.7% 98.7%  
57 2% 98%  
58 2% 96%  
59 4% 94%  
60 4% 90%  
61 8% 87%  
62 8% 79%  
63 11% 70%  
64 12% 59% Median
65 15% 48%  
66 10% 33% Last Result
67 6% 23%  
68 6% 17% Majority
69 3% 11%  
70 2% 7%  
71 3% 5%  
72 1.2% 2%  
73 0.3% 0.9%  
74 0.3% 0.6%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.7%  
55 0.7% 99.3%  
56 1.1% 98.5%  
57 2% 97%  
58 2% 95%  
59 4% 93%  
60 4% 90%  
61 8% 86%  
62 8% 77%  
63 12% 69%  
64 11% 58% Median
65 15% 47%  
66 10% 32% Last Result
67 6% 22%  
68 6% 16% Majority
69 3% 10%  
70 2% 7%  
71 3% 5%  
72 1.0% 2%  
73 0.3% 0.8%  
74 0.3% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.5% 99.7%  
48 0.6% 99.2%  
49 2% 98.6%  
50 3% 97%  
51 2% 94%  
52 5% 92%  
53 12% 87%  
54 7% 76%  
55 10% 69%  
56 6% 60%  
57 12% 53% Last Result, Median
58 10% 41%  
59 10% 32%  
60 11% 21%  
61 3% 11%  
62 3% 8%  
63 2% 5%  
64 1.3% 3%  
65 0.6% 2%  
66 0.7% 1.1%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2% Majority
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 0.3% 99.6%  
47 0.9% 99.3%  
48 1.2% 98%  
49 5% 97%  
50 5% 92%  
51 5% 87%  
52 7% 83%  
53 9% 75%  
54 11% 66%  
55 14% 55%  
56 8% 41% Median
57 9% 33%  
58 9% 24%  
59 4% 14%  
60 5% 10%  
61 2% 5%  
62 1.0% 4%  
63 0.9% 3%  
64 0.9% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.8% Last Result
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1% Majority
69 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.8%  
39 0.6% 99.5%  
40 0.9% 98.9%  
41 2% 98%  
42 3% 96%  
43 8% 94%  
44 10% 85%  
45 8% 75%  
46 11% 66%  
47 8% 55%  
48 10% 48% Median
49 9% 38%  
50 13% 29%  
51 6% 16%  
52 3% 10%  
53 3% 7%  
54 1.5% 4%  
55 1.1% 3%  
56 0.4% 1.4%  
57 0.5% 1.0% Last Result
58 0.2% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.7% 99.8%  
30 0.5% 99.2%  
31 1.3% 98.6%  
32 1.4% 97%  
33 3% 96%  
34 6% 93%  
35 6% 87%  
36 9% 81%  
37 14% 72%  
38 6% 57%  
39 12% 51% Median
40 12% 39% Last Result
41 6% 27%  
42 11% 22%  
43 6% 11%  
44 3% 5%  
45 0.7% 2%  
46 0.7% 1.4%  
47 0.3% 0.7%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations