Opinion Poll by Feedback for The National, 2–9 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 20.5% 18.5–22.7% 17.9–23.4% 17.4–23.9% 16.5–25.0%
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 19.8% 17.8–22.0% 17.3–22.7% 16.8–23.2% 15.9–24.3%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 19.3% 17.3–21.5% 16.8–22.1% 16.3–22.7% 15.4–23.8%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 9.8% 8.4–11.6% 8.0–12.1% 7.7–12.5% 7.0–13.4%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 7.8% 6.5–9.4% 6.2–9.8% 5.9–10.2% 5.3–11.1%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 7.3% 6.1–8.8% 5.7–9.3% 5.4–9.7% 4.9–10.5%
Vox 0.0% 5.2% 4.2–6.6% 3.9–7.0% 3.7–7.4% 3.3–8.1%
Partit Popular 4.2% 3.6% 2.7–4.7% 2.5–5.1% 2.3–5.4% 2.0–6.0%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0.0% 1.9% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.1% 1.1–3.3% 0.8–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya 34 34 31–37 30–38 29–39 27–41
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 31 28–34 27–35 26–37 24–38
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 26 24–30 24–31 24–32 21–35
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 13 12–16 11–17 10–18 8–19
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 11 9–14 8–15 8–15 8–16
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 8 7–11 6–11 5–12 5–14
Vox 0 7 5–9 4–9 3–10 3–11
Partit Popular 4 3 0–5 0–6 0–7 0–7
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–5

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 0.5% 99.5%  
28 0.6% 99.0%  
29 2% 98%  
30 5% 96%  
31 9% 91%  
32 13% 82%  
33 14% 69%  
34 10% 55% Last Result, Median
35 14% 45%  
36 8% 31%  
37 16% 23%  
38 3% 8%  
39 2% 4%  
40 1.2% 2%  
41 0.7% 0.9%  
42 0.1% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.6% 99.9%  
25 1.4% 99.2%  
26 3% 98%  
27 4% 95%  
28 7% 92%  
29 16% 84%  
30 11% 69%  
31 12% 57% Median
32 18% 45% Last Result
33 13% 27%  
34 4% 13%  
35 5% 10%  
36 2% 5%  
37 1.5% 3%  
38 1.2% 2%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 0.4% 99.6%  
22 0.5% 99.2%  
23 0.8% 98.7%  
24 9% 98%  
25 9% 89%  
26 33% 80% Median
27 11% 47%  
28 13% 35%  
29 9% 22%  
30 6% 13%  
31 3% 7%  
32 2% 4%  
33 1.4% 2%  
34 0.5% 1.0%  
35 0.4% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.7% 100%  
9 1.2% 99.3%  
10 1.0% 98%  
11 5% 97%  
12 18% 92%  
13 29% 75% Median
14 31% 45%  
15 4% 15%  
16 3% 11%  
17 4% 8%  
18 3% 4%  
19 1.0% 1.1%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.4% 99.9%  
8 7% 99.5%  
9 23% 92%  
10 7% 70%  
11 34% 62% Median
12 13% 28%  
13 5% 15%  
14 5% 10%  
15 5% 6%  
16 0.6% 1.0%  
17 0.3% 0.4%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 3% 99.8%  
6 4% 97%  
7 16% 93%  
8 29% 77% Last Result, Median
9 17% 48%  
10 12% 31%  
11 15% 19%  
12 2% 4%  
13 1.1% 2%  
14 0.5% 0.6%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 4% 99.9%  
4 3% 96%  
5 14% 93%  
6 18% 79%  
7 40% 61% Median
8 8% 21%  
9 10% 13%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.7% 1.0%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100%  
1 0% 83%  
2 10% 83%  
3 43% 72% Median
4 5% 30% Last Result
5 15% 25%  
6 5% 10%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.1% 0.2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 15% 17%  
2 0.1% 2%  
3 0.7% 2%  
4 0.5% 1.3%  
5 0.6% 0.8%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 70 76 99.5% 72–79 70–81 70–82 68–84
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 76 99.4% 71–79 70–81 69–82 67–84
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 73 96% 70–78 68–79 67–80 65–82
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 67 35% 63–71 61–72 60–73 58–75
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 66 66 21% 61–69 60–70 59–71 57–73
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 66 65 20% 61–69 60–70 58–71 56–73
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 52 0% 49–56 48–58 47–59 45–61
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular 57 50 0% 47–54 45–56 45–56 43–59
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 44 0% 40–48 39–49 38–50 36–52
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 40 0% 36–44 35–45 34–46 32–48

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.8% 99.5% Majority
69 1.0% 98.7%  
70 3% 98% Last Result
71 4% 95%  
72 4% 91%  
73 6% 87%  
74 10% 81%  
75 11% 71%  
76 10% 60% Median
77 13% 50%  
78 16% 37%  
79 12% 21%  
80 3% 9%  
81 3% 6%  
82 2% 4%  
83 1.0% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.7%  
85 0.2% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.9% 99.4% Majority
69 1.4% 98%  
70 3% 97% Last Result
71 4% 94%  
72 5% 90%  
73 5% 85%  
74 13% 79%  
75 10% 66%  
76 12% 57% Median
77 10% 45%  
78 15% 35%  
79 11% 20%  
80 3% 9%  
81 2% 6%  
82 2% 3%  
83 1.0% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.7%  
85 0.2% 0.3%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 99.7%  
66 0.8% 99.2%  
67 2% 98%  
68 2% 96% Majority
69 4% 94%  
70 4% 90%  
71 7% 86%  
72 11% 79%  
73 20% 69% Median
74 10% 48% Last Result
75 6% 39%  
76 13% 33%  
77 9% 19%  
78 3% 10%  
79 4% 7%  
80 2% 3%  
81 1.0% 2%  
82 0.2% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
58 0.4% 99.8%  
59 0.5% 99.4%  
60 2% 98.9%  
61 2% 97%  
62 3% 95%  
63 6% 92%  
64 12% 86%  
65 11% 74% Median
66 13% 63%  
67 15% 50%  
68 7% 35% Majority
69 10% 28%  
70 5% 18%  
71 6% 14%  
72 3% 8%  
73 2% 4%  
74 1.0% 2%  
75 0.5% 0.9%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.7% 99.6%  
58 1.0% 98.9%  
59 2% 98%  
60 3% 96%  
61 5% 93%  
62 9% 88%  
63 9% 80%  
64 8% 71%  
65 11% 63% Median
66 16% 53% Last Result
67 15% 37%  
68 9% 21% Majority
69 4% 12%  
70 4% 8%  
71 1.2% 4%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0.4% 0.9%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 1.0% 99.5%  
58 1.1% 98.5%  
59 2% 97%  
60 3% 95%  
61 5% 92%  
62 10% 87%  
63 8% 77%  
64 9% 69%  
65 13% 60% Median
66 14% 48% Last Result
67 14% 33%  
68 9% 20% Majority
69 4% 11%  
70 4% 7%  
71 1.2% 3%  
72 1.4% 2%  
73 0.3% 0.7%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.8%  
45 0.6% 99.6%  
46 0.7% 99.0%  
47 2% 98%  
48 4% 96%  
49 11% 92%  
50 15% 81% Median
51 12% 66%  
52 11% 54%  
53 10% 43%  
54 9% 32%  
55 8% 23%  
56 7% 16%  
57 3% 9%  
58 3% 6%  
59 2% 4%  
60 1.2% 2%  
61 0.6% 0.8%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.7% 99.6%  
44 1.0% 98.9%  
45 3% 98%  
46 3% 95%  
47 12% 92%  
48 8% 79%  
49 14% 71% Median
50 12% 57%  
51 13% 45%  
52 11% 31%  
53 6% 20%  
54 5% 14%  
55 3% 9%  
56 3% 5%  
57 1.2% 2% Last Result
58 0.6% 1.2%  
59 0.3% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.8%  
37 0.5% 99.4%  
38 1.4% 98.9%  
39 3% 97%  
40 10% 94%  
41 12% 84%  
42 13% 72% Median
43 8% 59%  
44 18% 51%  
45 8% 33%  
46 10% 25%  
47 5% 15%  
48 3% 10%  
49 4% 7%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.9% 2%  
52 0.3% 0.6%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.6% 99.7%  
33 0.8% 99.1%  
34 2% 98%  
35 4% 97%  
36 10% 93%  
37 8% 83%  
38 9% 75%  
39 10% 65% Median
40 16% 55% Last Result
41 13% 39%  
42 8% 27%  
43 9% 19%  
44 4% 10%  
45 3% 6%  
46 1.2% 3%  
47 0.9% 1.4%  
48 0.3% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations