Opinion Poll by GESOP for El Periòdic, 7–9 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 23.0% 20.5–25.8% 19.8–26.6% 19.2–27.3% 18.1–28.6%
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 20.1% 17.8–22.8% 17.1–23.6% 16.6–24.2% 15.5–25.6%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 19.9% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.3% 16.4–24.0% 15.3–25.3%
Vox 0.0% 7.8% 6.4–9.8% 6.0–10.3% 5.6–10.8% 5.0–11.8%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 6.9% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.2% 4.8–9.7% 4.3–10.7%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 6.4% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.7% 4.4–9.2% 3.9–10.1%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 6.4% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.7% 4.4–9.2% 3.9–10.1%
Partit Popular 4.2% 4.5% 3.4–6.1% 3.2–6.5% 2.9–6.9% 2.5–7.8%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0.0% 2.1% 1.5–3.3% 1.3–3.7% 1.1–4.0% 0.9–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 32 28–36 27–38 26–38 25–40
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 30 27–34 26–35 25–37 23–39
Junts per Catalunya 34 32 29–37 27–38 26–39 24–41
Vox 0 10 8–13 7–14 7–14 6–15
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 8 5–10 5–11 5–11 4–13
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 8 5–11 5–12 5–12 3–13
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 8 7–11 6–11 5–12 4–14
Partit Popular 4 5 3–7 2–8 0–9 0–10
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0 0 0–1 0–4 0–5 0–6

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 1.0% 99.7%  
26 2% 98.7%  
27 5% 96%  
28 4% 92%  
29 9% 88%  
30 8% 78%  
31 16% 70%  
32 14% 53% Median
33 7% 40%  
34 8% 33%  
35 5% 25%  
36 10% 20%  
37 5% 10%  
38 3% 5%  
39 0.8% 2%  
40 0.5% 0.8%  
41 0.1% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 0.6% 99.6%  
24 1.2% 98.9%  
25 3% 98%  
26 5% 95%  
27 6% 90%  
28 13% 84%  
29 11% 71%  
30 16% 60% Median
31 12% 44%  
32 10% 32% Last Result
33 8% 23%  
34 5% 15%  
35 5% 10%  
36 2% 5%  
37 1.2% 3%  
38 0.5% 1.4%  
39 0.5% 0.8%  
40 0.1% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.7%  
25 1.3% 99.2%  
26 1.2% 98%  
27 3% 97%  
28 1.5% 94%  
29 11% 92%  
30 7% 81%  
31 14% 74%  
32 11% 60% Median
33 7% 49%  
34 9% 42% Last Result
35 12% 33%  
36 7% 21%  
37 8% 14%  
38 2% 5%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.5% 1.2%  
41 0.3% 0.7%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.3% 100%  
6 0.8% 99.6%  
7 9% 98.8%  
8 6% 90%  
9 17% 84%  
10 23% 68% Median
11 9% 45%  
12 21% 36%  
13 5% 15%  
14 8% 10%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0.2% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 2% 99.9%  
5 9% 98%  
6 4% 89%  
7 22% 85%  
8 34% 63% Last Result, Median
9 14% 30%  
10 7% 15%  
11 6% 8%  
12 0.6% 2%  
13 0.8% 1.2%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.9% 100%  
4 0.4% 99.1%  
5 10% 98.7%  
6 17% 89%  
7 17% 71%  
8 31% 55% Median
9 8% 24%  
10 5% 15%  
11 4% 11%  
12 5% 6%  
13 0.9% 1.1%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 99.9%  
4 2% 99.7% Last Result
5 1.4% 98%  
6 2% 97%  
7 15% 94%  
8 38% 79% Median
9 20% 41%  
10 9% 21%  
11 9% 12%  
12 1.4% 4%  
13 1.3% 2%  
14 0.6% 1.1%  
15 0.4% 0.5%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 3% 97%  
3 29% 94%  
4 9% 65% Last Result
5 20% 56% Median
6 14% 37%  
7 16% 22%  
8 2% 7%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.8% 1.2%  
11 0.2% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Last Result, Median
1 17% 27%  
2 1.3% 9%  
3 2% 8%  
4 2% 6%  
5 2% 4%  
6 1.2% 1.4%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 72 84% 66–76 65–78 64–79 62–81
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 70 72 87% 67–77 66–78 64–79 62–81
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 71 80% 66–76 64–77 63–78 61–81
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 70 78% 66–75 64–76 63–77 60–80
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 63 13% 58–68 57–69 56–71 53–72
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 66 63 16% 58–68 57–69 56–71 53–73
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Vox – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 55 0.1% 50–60 49–62 48–63 45–65
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 65 52 0% 48–57 46–59 46–60 44–62
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 44 0% 40–49 39–51 37–52 36–54
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 38 0% 34–42 33–44 32–46 30–49

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 0.8% 99.6%  
63 0.9% 98.8%  
64 1.4% 98%  
65 3% 96%  
66 4% 94%  
67 6% 90%  
68 5% 84% Majority
69 9% 78%  
70 10% 69% Last Result, Median
71 9% 59%  
72 11% 50%  
73 9% 40%  
74 9% 31%  
75 6% 22%  
76 8% 16%  
77 3% 8%  
78 1.2% 5%  
79 3% 4%  
80 0.4% 1.2%  
81 0.4% 0.7%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.6% 99.8%  
63 0.4% 99.2%  
64 1.4% 98.8%  
65 1.5% 97%  
66 4% 96%  
67 6% 92%  
68 5% 87% Majority
69 6% 82%  
70 11% 76% Last Result, Median
71 9% 65%  
72 12% 56%  
73 8% 44%  
74 10% 36%  
75 7% 26%  
76 9% 19%  
77 4% 10%  
78 1.5% 6%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.2% 2%  
81 0.5% 1.0%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 0.5% 99.5%  
62 0.8% 99.0%  
63 0.8% 98%  
64 3% 97%  
65 3% 94%  
66 6% 91%  
67 5% 85%  
68 7% 80% Majority
69 9% 73%  
70 8% 63% Median
71 9% 55%  
72 11% 46%  
73 9% 35%  
74 8% 26% Last Result
75 6% 18%  
76 6% 12%  
77 3% 6%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.9% 2%  
80 0.4% 1.0%  
81 0.4% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 0.3% 99.5%  
62 0.8% 99.2%  
63 2% 98%  
64 2% 97%  
65 2% 95%  
66 6% 92%  
67 8% 87%  
68 9% 78% Majority
69 13% 69%  
70 8% 56% Median
71 12% 48%  
72 8% 36%  
73 10% 28%  
74 4% 18%  
75 5% 14%  
76 5% 9%  
77 2% 4%  
78 0.9% 2%  
79 0.4% 1.2%  
80 0.4% 0.8%  
81 0.3% 0.4%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.6%  
54 1.0% 99.3%  
55 0.6% 98%  
56 2% 98%  
57 4% 95%  
58 5% 92%  
59 7% 87%  
60 7% 80%  
61 8% 73%  
62 9% 65% Median
63 11% 56%  
64 11% 45%  
65 6% 34%  
66 10% 28% Last Result
67 5% 18%  
68 8% 13% Majority
69 2% 5%  
70 0.8% 3%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.5% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.8%  
54 0.5% 99.5%  
55 0.7% 99.0%  
56 1.3% 98%  
57 3% 97%  
58 5% 94%  
59 4% 89%  
60 9% 85%  
61 6% 77%  
62 9% 71% Median
63 12% 62%  
64 11% 50%  
65 6% 39%  
66 12% 33% Last Result
67 5% 21%  
68 9% 16% Majority
69 3% 7%  
70 2% 5%  
71 1.3% 3%  
72 1.2% 2%  
73 0.2% 0.6%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Vox – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.8%  
46 0.6% 99.5%  
47 0.9% 98.9%  
48 2% 98%  
49 2% 96%  
50 5% 94%  
51 5% 89%  
52 10% 84%  
53 8% 74%  
54 12% 66%  
55 9% 54% Median
56 11% 45%  
57 7% 34% Last Result
58 9% 27%  
59 4% 18%  
60 5% 14%  
61 4% 9%  
62 2% 5%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.4% 1.1%  
65 0.3% 0.8%  
66 0.3% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1% Majority
69 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.2% 99.8%  
44 0.6% 99.6%  
45 0.9% 99.0%  
46 3% 98%  
47 2% 95%  
48 5% 92%  
49 5% 88%  
50 12% 82%  
51 13% 70%  
52 10% 57%  
53 8% 47% Median
54 9% 39%  
55 10% 31%  
56 7% 20%  
57 5% 13%  
58 2% 8%  
59 3% 6%  
60 1.1% 3%  
61 1.4% 2%  
62 0.5% 0.8%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1% Last Result
66 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 0.9% 99.6%  
37 1.2% 98.7%  
38 2% 97%  
39 4% 96%  
40 4% 92%  
41 4% 88%  
42 13% 85%  
43 15% 72%  
44 8% 57%  
45 11% 49% Median
46 8% 38%  
47 7% 30%  
48 8% 23%  
49 5% 15%  
50 4% 10%  
51 3% 6%  
52 1.4% 3%  
53 1.0% 2%  
54 0.2% 0.7%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 0.4% 99.6%  
31 1.2% 99.2%  
32 1.4% 98%  
33 2% 97%  
34 5% 94%  
35 7% 89%  
36 13% 82%  
37 13% 69%  
38 13% 56% Median
39 12% 43%  
40 9% 31% Last Result
41 6% 22%  
42 6% 16%  
43 3% 10%  
44 3% 7%  
45 1.3% 4%  
46 1.3% 3%  
47 0.4% 1.2%  
48 0.2% 0.8%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations