Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 9 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 21.8% 19.3–24.6% 18.6–25.4% 18.0–26.1% 16.9–27.5%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 20.8% 18.3–23.5% 17.6–24.3% 17.1–25.0% 16.0–26.4%
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 20.0% 17.6–22.8% 16.9–23.5% 16.4–24.2% 15.3–25.6%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 8.8% 7.2–10.8% 6.7–11.4% 6.4–11.9% 5.7–13.0%
Vox 0.0% 7.0% 5.6–8.9% 5.2–9.4% 4.9–9.9% 4.3–10.9%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 6.8% 5.4–8.6% 5.0–9.2% 4.7–9.6% 4.1–10.6%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 5.5% 4.3–7.3% 3.9–7.7% 3.7–8.2% 3.2–9.1%
Partit Popular 4.2% 5.0% 3.9–6.7% 3.5–7.2% 3.3–7.6% 2.8–8.5%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0.0% 1.5% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9% 0.7–3.2% 0.5–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 30 26–34 25–35 24–36 23–38
Junts per Catalunya 34 33 30–37 28–39 27–40 25–43
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 30 26–35 25–36 24–37 22–39
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 12 8–14 8–15 8–16 6–18
Vox 0 9 7–12 6–12 5–13 4–15
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 8 5–10 5–11 4–11 4–13
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 7 4–9 4–10 3–11 2–12
Partit Popular 4 6 3–9 3–9 3–10 0–11
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–5

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 0.4% 99.6%  
24 2% 99.2%  
25 5% 97%  
26 9% 92%  
27 9% 83%  
28 10% 74%  
29 9% 64%  
30 15% 56% Median
31 14% 41%  
32 8% 26%  
33 7% 18%  
34 4% 11%  
35 3% 7%  
36 2% 4%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.7%  
39 0.3% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.5% 99.7%  
26 1.4% 99.2%  
27 1.5% 98%  
28 2% 96%  
29 3% 94%  
30 6% 91%  
31 18% 85%  
32 15% 66%  
33 12% 52% Median
34 6% 40% Last Result
35 11% 34%  
36 6% 23%  
37 8% 17%  
38 3% 9%  
39 3% 6%  
40 1.4% 3%  
41 0.9% 2%  
42 0.2% 0.9%  
43 0.5% 0.7%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.5% 99.8%  
23 0.6% 99.3%  
24 2% 98.7%  
25 3% 96%  
26 5% 93%  
27 5% 88%  
28 17% 82%  
29 11% 66%  
30 13% 55% Median
31 8% 42%  
32 7% 34% Last Result
33 9% 27%  
34 6% 18%  
35 5% 12%  
36 3% 7%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.6% 1.3%  
39 0.4% 0.7%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.8% 99.9%  
7 1.3% 99.0%  
8 10% 98%  
9 10% 87%  
10 6% 78%  
11 5% 71%  
12 28% 66% Median
13 24% 38%  
14 8% 14%  
15 2% 6%  
16 2% 4%  
17 1.2% 2%  
18 1.0% 1.1%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 0.3% 99.7%  
5 2% 99.4%  
6 3% 97%  
7 20% 94%  
8 10% 75%  
9 24% 65% Median
10 16% 41%  
11 7% 25%  
12 15% 18%  
13 2% 4%  
14 1.4% 2%  
15 0.9% 1.0%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 4% 99.8%  
5 12% 96%  
6 9% 84%  
7 21% 75%  
8 27% 54% Last Result, Median
9 10% 27%  
10 11% 17%  
11 4% 7%  
12 1.0% 2%  
13 1.1% 1.5%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0.8% 99.7%  
3 2% 99.0%  
4 11% 97% Last Result
5 3% 86%  
6 6% 83%  
7 27% 77% Median
8 30% 50%  
9 12% 20%  
10 4% 8%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.5% 0.9%  
13 0.2% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 0% 99.3%  
2 1.2% 99.3%  
3 14% 98%  
4 6% 84% Last Result
5 21% 78%  
6 12% 57% Median
7 26% 45%  
8 8% 18%  
9 7% 10%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.9% 1.3%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 8%  
2 0.1% 2%  
3 0.4% 2%  
4 0.5% 1.2%  
5 0.6% 0.7%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 71 76% 66–76 65–77 63–79 61–81
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 70 76% 66–76 65–77 64–78 61–80
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 70 70 77% 66–76 65–78 64–78 61–80
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 67 48% 63–73 62–74 60–75 57–78
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 66 63 16% 59–69 58–70 56–72 54–74
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 66 63 15% 59–69 57–70 56–71 54–73
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular 57 57 0.2% 51–61 50–62 49–64 47–66
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 55 0.1% 50–60 49–62 48–62 44–64
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 47 0% 43–52 41–53 40–55 38–57
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 37 0% 34–43 33–43 32–44 29–47

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.7%  
62 0.7% 99.4%  
63 1.2% 98.7%  
64 1.1% 97%  
65 5% 96%  
66 4% 92%  
67 12% 88%  
68 5% 76% Majority
69 7% 70%  
70 9% 63%  
71 7% 54% Median
72 10% 47%  
73 8% 37%  
74 6% 29% Last Result
75 9% 23%  
76 8% 15%  
77 2% 7%  
78 2% 5%  
79 1.3% 3%  
80 0.9% 2%  
81 0.5% 0.9%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.5% 99.6%  
62 0.6% 99.1%  
63 0.9% 98.5%  
64 2% 98%  
65 4% 96%  
66 5% 92%  
67 12% 88%  
68 11% 76% Majority
69 9% 65%  
70 8% 56% Last Result, Median
71 9% 49%  
72 6% 40%  
73 6% 34%  
74 8% 28%  
75 7% 20%  
76 5% 13%  
77 3% 7%  
78 2% 5%  
79 1.5% 2%  
80 0.4% 0.7%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.4% 99.6%  
62 0.6% 99.2%  
63 0.8% 98.6%  
64 1.4% 98%  
65 3% 96%  
66 5% 94%  
67 11% 88%  
68 11% 77% Majority
69 9% 67%  
70 8% 57% Last Result, Median
71 9% 50%  
72 7% 41%  
73 6% 34%  
74 8% 28%  
75 6% 20%  
76 5% 14%  
77 3% 8%  
78 3% 5%  
79 1.5% 2%  
80 0.4% 0.9%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
58 0.6% 99.4%  
59 0.7% 98.8%  
60 1.0% 98%  
61 1.4% 97%  
62 4% 96%  
63 5% 92%  
64 11% 86%  
65 7% 75%  
66 14% 68%  
67 5% 54%  
68 3% 48% Median, Majority
69 11% 45%  
70 8% 34%  
71 6% 26%  
72 7% 20%  
73 8% 13%  
74 3% 5%  
75 0.9% 3%  
76 0.5% 2%  
77 0.5% 1.4%  
78 0.5% 0.8%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.8%  
54 0.5% 99.6%  
55 0.5% 99.1%  
56 1.5% 98.6%  
57 1.3% 97%  
58 4% 96%  
59 7% 92%  
60 10% 85%  
61 8% 74%  
62 7% 67%  
63 11% 60% Median
64 9% 49%  
65 8% 40%  
66 10% 32% Last Result
67 6% 22%  
68 4% 16% Majority
69 5% 12%  
70 3% 7%  
71 1.3% 4%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.5% 1.0%  
74 0.3% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.5% 99.6%  
55 0.6% 99.1%  
56 2% 98%  
57 2% 97%  
58 3% 95%  
59 7% 91%  
60 11% 84%  
61 7% 73%  
62 7% 66%  
63 12% 59% Median
64 10% 48%  
65 8% 38%  
66 9% 30% Last Result
67 6% 21%  
68 5% 15% Majority
69 4% 11%  
70 3% 6%  
71 1.3% 4%  
72 1.4% 2%  
73 0.5% 0.9%  
74 0.3% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.8%  
47 0.3% 99.6%  
48 1.0% 99.3%  
49 2% 98%  
50 2% 97%  
51 8% 95%  
52 6% 87%  
53 6% 81%  
54 7% 75%  
55 8% 68%  
56 10% 61%  
57 6% 51% Last Result, Median
58 9% 44%  
59 8% 36%  
60 8% 28%  
61 13% 20%  
62 4% 8%  
63 1.2% 4%  
64 0.8% 3%  
65 0.9% 2%  
66 0.7% 1.1%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2% Majority
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.5%  
46 0.6% 99.1%  
47 0.9% 98.5%  
48 2% 98%  
49 4% 96%  
50 6% 92%  
51 5% 86%  
52 8% 81%  
53 8% 73%  
54 12% 66%  
55 11% 54%  
56 9% 43% Median
57 7% 34%  
58 5% 28%  
59 12% 23%  
60 4% 11%  
61 2% 7%  
62 3% 5%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.8% 1.3%  
65 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1% Majority
69 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.5%  
39 0.8% 99.2%  
40 1.3% 98%  
41 3% 97%  
42 4% 94%  
43 5% 90%  
44 13% 85%  
45 6% 72%  
46 9% 66%  
47 10% 57%  
48 8% 47% Median
49 8% 39%  
50 8% 31%  
51 5% 23%  
52 10% 17%  
53 3% 8%  
54 2% 5%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.7% 1.4%  
57 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.3% 99.7%  
30 0.8% 99.4%  
31 0.9% 98.6%  
32 3% 98%  
33 5% 95%  
34 9% 90%  
35 12% 81%  
36 12% 70%  
37 9% 58%  
38 7% 48% Median
39 8% 41%  
40 5% 33% Last Result
41 8% 28%  
42 5% 20%  
43 10% 15%  
44 2% 5%  
45 1.2% 2%  
46 0.4% 1.2%  
47 0.3% 0.8%  
48 0.2% 0.5%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations