Opinion Poll by Feedback for The National, 3–10 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 19.8% 17.8–22.0% 17.2–22.7% 16.8–23.2% 15.9–24.3%
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 19.6% 17.6–21.9% 17.1–22.5% 16.6–23.0% 15.7–24.1%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 19.3% 17.3–21.5% 16.8–22.1% 16.3–22.7% 15.4–23.8%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 9.7% 8.3–11.5% 7.9–12.0% 7.6–12.4% 7.0–13.3%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 7.5% 6.3–9.1% 5.9–9.5% 5.6–9.9% 5.1–10.7%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 7.2% 6.0–8.7% 5.6–9.2% 5.3–9.6% 4.8–10.3%
Vox 0.0% 5.5% 4.4–6.9% 4.1–7.3% 3.9–7.6% 3.4–8.3%
Partit Popular 4.2% 3.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.8–5.5% 2.6–5.8% 2.3–6.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya 34 33 30–37 29–37 28–38 26–40
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 31 28–34 26–36 26–37 24–38
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 27 24–31 24–32 23–33 22–34
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 13 12–17 10–17 10–18 8–19
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 11 8–14 8–14 8–15 7–16
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 8 7–11 5–11 5–12 5–14
Vox 0 7 5–9 5–10 3–10 3–12
Partit Popular 4 4 2–7 2–7 0–7 0–9

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 0.9% 99.6%  
27 1.1% 98.8%  
28 2% 98%  
29 4% 96%  
30 5% 92%  
31 20% 87%  
32 14% 67%  
33 13% 53% Median
34 6% 40% Last Result
35 8% 34%  
36 11% 26%  
37 10% 15%  
38 3% 5%  
39 0.9% 2%  
40 0.5% 0.9%  
41 0.2% 0.4%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.6% 99.8%  
25 1.3% 99.2%  
26 3% 98%  
27 4% 95%  
28 12% 91%  
29 13% 79%  
30 13% 66%  
31 15% 52% Median
32 13% 37% Last Result
33 8% 24%  
34 7% 17%  
35 3% 10%  
36 3% 6%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.6% 1.0%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.2% 99.7%  
22 0.8% 99.5%  
23 2% 98.7%  
24 9% 97%  
25 13% 88%  
26 23% 75%  
27 11% 52% Median
28 8% 40%  
29 7% 32%  
30 10% 25%  
31 8% 14%  
32 4% 7%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.7% 1.1%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.8% 100%  
9 2% 99.2%  
10 3% 98%  
11 4% 94%  
12 20% 91%  
13 29% 71% Median
14 22% 42%  
15 4% 20%  
16 5% 16%  
17 6% 11%  
18 4% 5%  
19 0.7% 0.8%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.1% 99.9%  
7 2% 99.8%  
8 16% 98%  
9 19% 82%  
10 10% 63%  
11 26% 53% Median
12 11% 27%  
13 6% 16%  
14 5% 10%  
15 4% 5%  
16 0.6% 0.9%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 6% 99.8%  
6 2% 94%  
7 12% 92%  
8 35% 80% Last Result, Median
9 18% 44%  
10 12% 26%  
11 11% 15%  
12 1.3% 4%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.6% 0.7%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 3% 99.9%  
4 2% 97%  
5 13% 96%  
6 15% 83%  
7 39% 67% Median
8 6% 28%  
9 16% 22%  
10 4% 6%  
11 1.3% 2%  
12 0.7% 0.8%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 6% 95%  
3 36% 89%  
4 8% 53% Last Result, Median
5 25% 46%  
6 9% 20%  
7 10% 12%  
8 0.5% 1.2%  
9 0.7% 0.7%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 75 98% 70–79 69–80 68–81 66–82
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 72 92% 68–76 67–78 66–79 64–81
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 66 38% 62–72 61–73 60–74 58–76
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 66 64 13% 60–68 58–69 57–70 55–72
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 54 0% 49–58 48–59 47–60 46–62
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular 57 52 0% 48–57 47–57 46–59 44–61
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 45 0% 41–49 40–50 39–51 38–53
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 39 0% 36–43 35–44 34–46 32–48

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.7%  
67 1.3% 99.3%  
68 3% 98% Majority
69 3% 95%  
70 7% 92% Last Result
71 8% 84%  
72 6% 77%  
73 10% 71%  
74 9% 61%  
75 12% 52% Median
76 9% 40%  
77 10% 31%  
78 6% 21%  
79 7% 15%  
80 4% 7%  
81 2% 4%  
82 1.0% 2%  
83 0.4% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.4% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.5%  
65 1.2% 99.1%  
66 1.2% 98%  
67 4% 97%  
68 5% 92% Majority
69 4% 87%  
70 9% 83%  
71 10% 74%  
72 15% 65% Median
73 10% 49%  
74 12% 39% Last Result
75 10% 27%  
76 7% 17%  
77 4% 10%  
78 3% 6%  
79 1.4% 3%  
80 1.2% 2%  
81 0.3% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
58 0.5% 99.8%  
59 0.5% 99.3%  
60 1.4% 98.8%  
61 4% 97%  
62 5% 94%  
63 7% 88%  
64 9% 81%  
65 10% 72%  
66 12% 62% Median
67 12% 50%  
68 9% 38% Majority
69 6% 28%  
70 6% 22%  
71 4% 16%  
72 6% 12%  
73 3% 6%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.7% 1.2%  
76 0.4% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.6% 99.5%  
57 2% 98.9%  
58 2% 97%  
59 5% 95%  
60 5% 90%  
61 8% 85%  
62 12% 77%  
63 12% 65%  
64 10% 53% Median
65 8% 43%  
66 12% 35% Last Result
67 10% 23%  
68 5% 13% Majority
69 4% 8%  
70 2% 4%  
71 1.4% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.9%  
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.7%  
47 2% 99.1%  
48 3% 97%  
49 5% 94%  
50 10% 89%  
51 12% 79%  
52 7% 67% Median
53 8% 60%  
54 12% 51%  
55 10% 39%  
56 8% 29%  
57 7% 20%  
58 6% 13%  
59 3% 7%  
60 2% 4%  
61 1.4% 2%  
62 0.3% 0.6%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.6% 99.7%  
45 1.2% 99.1%  
46 3% 98%  
47 3% 95%  
48 8% 92%  
49 8% 84%  
50 12% 77%  
51 10% 65% Median
52 11% 54%  
53 13% 43%  
54 10% 30%  
55 5% 21%  
56 5% 16%  
57 7% 11% Last Result
58 2% 5%  
59 1.3% 3%  
60 0.9% 1.4%  
61 0.3% 0.5%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 1.1% 99.6%  
39 2% 98.5%  
40 3% 96%  
41 5% 93%  
42 10% 88%  
43 16% 78%  
44 9% 62% Median
45 9% 53%  
46 14% 44%  
47 12% 30%  
48 7% 19%  
49 3% 12%  
50 4% 9%  
51 3% 5%  
52 0.9% 2%  
53 0.8% 1.2%  
54 0.1% 0.4%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.8%  
32 0.5% 99.6%  
33 1.5% 99.1%  
34 2% 98%  
35 5% 96%  
36 10% 91%  
37 10% 81%  
38 10% 71%  
39 13% 61% Median
40 13% 47% Last Result
41 10% 35%  
42 10% 24%  
43 5% 15%  
44 5% 9%  
45 2% 4%  
46 1.3% 3%  
47 0.8% 1.4%  
48 0.3% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations