Opinion Poll by GESOP for El Periòdic, 8–10 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 23.1% 20.6–25.9% 19.9–26.7% 19.3–27.4% 18.2–28.7%
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 20.8% 18.4–23.5% 17.7–24.2% 17.2–24.9% 16.1–26.2%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 18.9% 16.6–21.5% 16.0–22.2% 15.4–22.9% 14.4–24.2%
Vox 0.0% 7.5% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0% 5.4–10.5% 4.8–11.4%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 6.8% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.2% 4.8–9.7% 4.2–10.6%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 6.6% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–8.9% 4.6–9.4% 4.1–10.3%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 6.4% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.7% 4.4–9.1% 3.9–10.0%
Partit Popular 4.2% 4.5% 3.4–6.1% 3.1–6.5% 2.9–6.9% 2.5–7.7%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0.0% 3.1% 2.2–4.4% 2.0–4.8% 1.8–5.2% 1.5–5.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 31 28–36 27–37 26–38 25–40
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 32 27–36 26–36 25–37 24–40
Junts per Catalunya 34 30 26–34 25–36 24–37 23–38
Vox 0 11 7–14 7–14 6–14 6–15
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 8 5–11 5–11 4–12 4–13
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 8 6–12 5–12 5–12 4–13
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 8 7–11 6–11 4–12 4–15
Partit Popular 4 5 3–7 2–8 0–9 0–10
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0 1 0–6 0–6 0–7 0–8

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.6%  
26 3% 98%  
27 5% 95%  
28 4% 90%  
29 16% 86%  
30 8% 70%  
31 14% 62% Median
32 13% 48%  
33 9% 35%  
34 8% 26%  
35 6% 18%  
36 5% 11%  
37 3% 6%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.5% 1.2%  
40 0.4% 0.7%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.8%  
24 1.2% 99.6%  
25 2% 98%  
26 3% 96%  
27 5% 93%  
28 8% 88%  
29 8% 81%  
30 10% 73%  
31 6% 63%  
32 15% 57% Last Result, Median
33 13% 42%  
34 8% 30%  
35 12% 22%  
36 6% 10%  
37 2% 4%  
38 1.0% 2%  
39 0.8% 1.3%  
40 0.2% 0.5%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.8%  
24 2% 98%  
25 3% 96%  
26 6% 93%  
27 12% 87%  
28 8% 75%  
29 13% 68%  
30 12% 55% Median
31 15% 42%  
32 8% 27%  
33 6% 19%  
34 3% 13% Last Result
35 5% 10%  
36 2% 5%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.7% 1.2%  
39 0.3% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.2% 99.9%  
6 4% 99.7%  
7 16% 96%  
8 5% 79%  
9 19% 74%  
10 4% 56%  
11 15% 51% Median
12 25% 37%  
13 1.1% 12%  
14 10% 11%  
15 0.4% 0.8%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 4% 99.8%  
5 15% 96%  
6 5% 82%  
7 23% 77%  
8 24% 54% Last Result, Median
9 13% 30%  
10 5% 16%  
11 7% 11%  
12 2% 4%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.4% 100%  
4 0.6% 99.6%  
5 9% 99.1%  
6 14% 90%  
7 11% 77%  
8 33% 66% Median
9 12% 33%  
10 5% 21%  
11 5% 16%  
12 9% 11%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 99.9%  
4 2% 99.5% Last Result
5 2% 97%  
6 2% 96%  
7 17% 93%  
8 33% 76% Median
9 23% 43%  
10 7% 20%  
11 10% 13%  
12 2% 4%  
13 0.8% 2%  
14 0.5% 1.0%  
15 0.5% 0.5%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 2% 96%  
3 26% 94%  
4 6% 69% Last Result
5 24% 62% Median
6 9% 38%  
7 21% 29%  
8 4% 7%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.3% 0.7%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100% Last Result
1 32% 77% Median
2 4% 45%  
3 3% 41%  
4 10% 38%  
5 16% 28%  
6 8% 12%  
7 2% 4%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 70 73 90% 68–77 66–79 65–80 62–82
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 71 80% 66–76 64–77 63–79 61–81
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 70 74% 65–75 63–77 62–77 60–80
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 69 69% 64–74 63–76 61–77 59–79
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 66 64 20% 59–69 58–71 56–72 54–74
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 61 7% 56–67 55–68 54–69 52–72
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Vox – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 55 0.1% 50–59 48–61 47–63 45–65
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 65 52 0% 47–57 46–59 44–60 43–63
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 44 0% 40–49 39–51 37–52 36–54
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 40 0% 34–44 33–45 32–46 30–49

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.7%  
63 0.6% 99.5%  
64 0.8% 98.9%  
65 2% 98%  
66 2% 96%  
67 4% 94%  
68 5% 90% Majority
69 7% 85%  
70 9% 78% Last Result
71 10% 70% Median
72 9% 60%  
73 13% 51%  
74 9% 38%  
75 8% 29%  
76 6% 21%  
77 7% 16%  
78 2% 9%  
79 2% 7%  
80 2% 4%  
81 1.2% 2%  
82 0.6% 1.0%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.7%  
61 0.5% 99.6%  
62 0.7% 99.0%  
63 2% 98%  
64 2% 97%  
65 4% 95%  
66 8% 91%  
67 4% 83%  
68 7% 80% Majority
69 8% 73%  
70 7% 65%  
71 11% 57% Median
72 12% 46%  
73 13% 34%  
74 5% 22%  
75 6% 17%  
76 4% 10%  
77 2% 7%  
78 2% 5%  
79 1.0% 3%  
80 0.7% 2%  
81 0.4% 0.8%  
82 0.1% 0.4%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.6%  
61 0.8% 99.2%  
62 1.0% 98%  
63 3% 97%  
64 3% 95%  
65 4% 91%  
66 6% 88%  
67 8% 82%  
68 9% 74% Majority
69 12% 65%  
70 8% 53% Last Result, Median
71 11% 45%  
72 8% 34%  
73 7% 26%  
74 4% 19%  
75 5% 15%  
76 4% 9%  
77 3% 5%  
78 1.0% 2%  
79 0.4% 1.2%  
80 0.4% 0.8%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.7%  
60 0.4% 99.3%  
61 2% 98.9%  
62 1.4% 97%  
63 3% 96%  
64 4% 93%  
65 7% 89%  
66 4% 83%  
67 9% 78%  
68 10% 69% Majority
69 13% 59%  
70 12% 46% Median
71 8% 34%  
72 5% 27%  
73 8% 22%  
74 6% 14% Last Result
75 3% 8%  
76 2% 5%  
77 1.4% 4%  
78 0.9% 2%  
79 0.9% 1.3%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.3% 99.6%  
55 0.8% 99.3%  
56 1.4% 98.5%  
57 2% 97%  
58 4% 95%  
59 4% 91%  
60 5% 87%  
61 11% 83%  
62 5% 72%  
63 9% 67% Median
64 10% 58%  
65 15% 47%  
66 9% 32% Last Result
67 3% 23%  
68 9% 20% Majority
69 2% 11%  
70 2% 9%  
71 3% 6%  
72 2% 3%  
73 1.0% 2%  
74 0.3% 0.7%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.8%  
52 0.4% 99.6%  
53 1.1% 99.2%  
54 2% 98%  
55 3% 97%  
56 4% 94%  
57 3% 89%  
58 7% 87%  
59 6% 80%  
60 14% 73%  
61 11% 60%  
62 8% 49% Median
63 12% 41%  
64 8% 29%  
65 7% 21%  
66 3% 14% Last Result
67 4% 11%  
68 3% 7% Majority
69 2% 4%  
70 1.0% 2%  
71 0.4% 0.9%  
72 0.2% 0.5%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Vox – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.2% 99.8%  
45 0.4% 99.6%  
46 1.0% 99.2%  
47 1.0% 98%  
48 3% 97%  
49 2% 94%  
50 5% 92%  
51 7% 88%  
52 8% 80%  
53 10% 72%  
54 8% 62%  
55 12% 54% Median
56 10% 43%  
57 8% 33% Last Result
58 9% 26%  
59 6% 16%  
60 3% 10%  
61 3% 6%  
62 1.0% 4%  
63 1.3% 3%  
64 0.7% 1.3%  
65 0.2% 0.6%  
66 0.3% 0.3%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1% Majority
69 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 1.2% 99.6%  
44 1.0% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 3% 96%  
47 4% 92%  
48 4% 88%  
49 6% 84%  
50 9% 78%  
51 12% 69%  
52 8% 56% Median
53 8% 49%  
54 10% 41%  
55 11% 31%  
56 7% 20%  
57 4% 13%  
58 3% 9%  
59 3% 6%  
60 2% 4%  
61 1.0% 2%  
62 0.4% 1.0%  
63 0.3% 0.6%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
66 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 1.0% 99.5%  
37 1.2% 98.6%  
38 2% 97%  
39 3% 95%  
40 6% 92%  
41 6% 86%  
42 4% 80%  
43 11% 76%  
44 15% 65% Median
45 8% 49%  
46 12% 41%  
47 10% 29%  
48 6% 19%  
49 4% 14%  
50 4% 10%  
51 3% 6%  
52 1.4% 3%  
53 0.7% 2%  
54 0.4% 0.9%  
55 0.2% 0.5%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.3% 99.7%  
31 1.0% 99.4%  
32 3% 98%  
33 2% 96%  
34 4% 94%  
35 5% 90%  
36 8% 85%  
37 7% 77%  
38 10% 70%  
39 8% 60%  
40 12% 52% Last Result, Median
41 12% 40%  
42 9% 28%  
43 6% 19%  
44 8% 13%  
45 2% 6%  
46 2% 4%  
47 0.7% 2%  
48 0.4% 1.0%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations