Opinion Poll by Feedback for The National, 4–11 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 20.3% 18.2–22.6% 17.7–23.2% 17.2–23.8% 16.3–24.9%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 20.3% 18.2–22.6% 17.7–23.2% 17.2–23.8% 16.3–24.9%
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 17.9% 15.9–20.0% 15.4–20.7% 14.9–21.2% 14.1–22.3%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 10.2% 8.8–12.0% 8.4–12.5% 8.0–13.0% 7.4–13.9%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 8.7% 7.3–10.3% 7.0–10.8% 6.6–11.2% 6.0–12.1%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 7.1% 5.9–8.7% 5.6–9.1% 5.3–9.5% 4.8–10.3%
Vox 0.0% 5.0% 4.0–6.4% 3.7–6.8% 3.5–7.1% 3.1–7.8%
Partit Popular 4.2% 4.2% 3.3–5.4% 3.0–5.8% 2.8–6.1% 2.4–6.8%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0.0% 2.3% 1.6–3.3% 1.5–3.6% 1.3–3.8% 1.1–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 28 25–32 25–33 24–34 23–35
Junts per Catalunya 34 35 30–38 28–39 27–39 26–41
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 27 24–31 23–32 22–33 21–35
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 14 12–17 12–18 11–18 9–19
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 11 8–13 8–14 8–14 7–16
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 9 8–11 8–13 7–14 6–15
Vox 0 7 4–9 3–9 3–10 2–11
Partit Popular 4 4 2–7 2–7 0–8 0–9
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0 0 0–1 0–4 0–5 0–6

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 0.8% 99.7%  
24 3% 99.0%  
25 8% 96%  
26 17% 88%  
27 10% 71%  
28 16% 61% Median
29 17% 45%  
30 7% 29%  
31 11% 21%  
32 4% 11%  
33 3% 7%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.7% 1.1%  
36 0.3% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.6% 99.7%  
27 3% 99.1%  
28 2% 97%  
29 4% 95%  
30 7% 91%  
31 12% 83%  
32 6% 72%  
33 7% 65%  
34 5% 58% Last Result
35 16% 53% Median
36 15% 37%  
37 10% 22%  
38 6% 13%  
39 4% 6%  
40 1.2% 2%  
41 0.6% 0.8%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 1.0% 99.8%  
22 4% 98.8%  
23 3% 95%  
24 7% 92%  
25 11% 85%  
26 12% 74%  
27 18% 62% Median
28 15% 44%  
29 8% 29%  
30 10% 21%  
31 5% 11%  
32 3% 6% Last Result
33 1.5% 3%  
34 1.0% 2%  
35 0.4% 0.6%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 0.9% 99.8%  
10 1.2% 98.9%  
11 2% 98%  
12 16% 95%  
13 26% 79%  
14 29% 53% Median
15 5% 25%  
16 8% 20%  
17 5% 11%  
18 4% 6%  
19 1.1% 1.3%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.3% 99.9%  
7 2% 99.6%  
8 13% 98% Last Result
9 18% 85%  
10 8% 66%  
11 29% 58% Median
12 6% 29%  
13 15% 24%  
14 7% 9%  
15 0.9% 2%  
16 1.0% 1.2%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100% Last Result
5 0.2% 99.9%  
6 0.3% 99.7%  
7 4% 99.4%  
8 27% 96%  
9 27% 69% Median
10 8% 42%  
11 25% 34%  
12 2% 9%  
13 3% 6%  
14 2% 3%  
15 1.3% 1.4%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0.4% 99.8%  
3 6% 99.4%  
4 5% 93%  
5 18% 89%  
6 20% 70%  
7 35% 50% Median
8 4% 15%  
9 7% 10%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.7% 0.9%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 7% 95%  
3 27% 89%  
4 14% 62% Last Result, Median
5 20% 47%  
6 11% 28%  
7 14% 17%  
8 1.4% 3%  
9 1.4% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Last Result, Median
1 26% 36%  
2 0.6% 10%  
3 3% 9%  
4 2% 6%  
5 3% 4%  
6 0.6% 0.7%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 70 72 87% 67–75 66–77 65–78 63–80
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 72 90% 68–76 66–77 65–78 63–81
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 71 84% 66–75 65–76 64–77 62–79
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 66 36% 62–71 61–72 60–73 57–75
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 66 62 4% 57–66 56–67 55–68 53–71
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 66 61 2% 57–65 56–67 55–67 52–70
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 57 0.1% 53–62 52–63 51–64 49–66
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular 57 53 0% 49–57 48–58 47–59 45–62
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 46 0% 43–51 42–52 41–53 39–55
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 38 0% 34–42 33–43 32–44 30–46

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.6%  
64 0.9% 99.3%  
65 2% 98%  
66 5% 96%  
67 4% 91%  
68 11% 87% Majority
69 12% 76%  
70 6% 64% Last Result
71 5% 59% Median
72 10% 53%  
73 11% 44%  
74 12% 33%  
75 10% 20%  
76 5% 10%  
77 3% 5%  
78 1.2% 3%  
79 1.0% 2%  
80 0.3% 0.6%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 0.6% 99.6%  
64 0.9% 98.9%  
65 2% 98%  
66 2% 96%  
67 4% 94%  
68 7% 90% Majority
69 9% 84%  
70 8% 74%  
71 14% 66%  
72 10% 52%  
73 6% 43% Median
74 12% 36% Last Result
75 10% 25%  
76 6% 15%  
77 4% 9%  
78 3% 5%  
79 1.0% 2%  
80 0.5% 1.0%  
81 0.4% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.7%  
63 0.6% 99.3%  
64 1.4% 98.8%  
65 4% 97%  
66 6% 94%  
67 4% 88%  
68 15% 84% Majority
69 10% 69%  
70 5% 59% Last Result
71 8% 54% Median
72 13% 46%  
73 10% 33%  
74 7% 23%  
75 8% 16%  
76 4% 8%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.0% 2%  
79 0.6% 0.9%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
58 0.3% 99.4%  
59 1.2% 99.1%  
60 2% 98%  
61 3% 96%  
62 7% 93%  
63 10% 86%  
64 9% 77%  
65 9% 68%  
66 10% 59% Median
67 13% 49%  
68 12% 36% Majority
69 8% 25%  
70 6% 16%  
71 4% 11%  
72 3% 7%  
73 2% 4%  
74 1.0% 2%  
75 0.4% 0.9%  
76 0.2% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.6%  
54 1.0% 99.3%  
55 1.2% 98%  
56 3% 97%  
57 6% 94%  
58 9% 88%  
59 6% 79%  
60 12% 74%  
61 8% 62%  
62 8% 53% Median
63 9% 45%  
64 13% 37%  
65 5% 23%  
66 11% 18% Last Result
67 3% 7%  
68 2% 4% Majority
69 0.6% 2%  
70 0.7% 1.2%  
71 0.3% 0.5%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.7% 99.5%  
54 1.1% 98.8%  
55 2% 98%  
56 5% 96%  
57 8% 91%  
58 9% 84%  
59 6% 75%  
60 12% 68%  
61 10% 56%  
62 7% 47% Median
63 12% 40%  
64 10% 28%  
65 9% 18%  
66 4% 9% Last Result
67 3% 6%  
68 1.3% 2% Majority
69 0.4% 1.1%  
70 0.4% 0.7%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.7% 99.8%  
50 0.6% 99.1%  
51 2% 98%  
52 3% 97%  
53 7% 94%  
54 12% 87%  
55 10% 75%  
56 8% 65%  
57 13% 57% Median
58 6% 44%  
59 9% 38%  
60 11% 29%  
61 4% 18%  
62 7% 14%  
63 3% 7%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.7% 2% Last Result
66 0.6% 0.9%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1% Majority
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.8%  
45 0.4% 99.7%  
46 0.8% 99.2%  
47 2% 98%  
48 4% 96%  
49 11% 92%  
50 9% 81%  
51 9% 73%  
52 11% 64%  
53 11% 52% Median
54 8% 42%  
55 8% 34%  
56 12% 26%  
57 5% 14% Last Result
58 5% 9%  
59 2% 4%  
60 1.2% 2%  
61 0.6% 1.2%  
62 0.4% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 1.1% 99.4%  
41 2% 98%  
42 4% 96%  
43 8% 92%  
44 14% 84%  
45 11% 70%  
46 13% 59% Median
47 6% 46%  
48 8% 40%  
49 13% 31%  
50 8% 19%  
51 5% 11%  
52 2% 6%  
53 2% 4%  
54 1.4% 2%  
55 0.5% 0.8%  
56 0.2% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.6% 99.8%  
31 0.9% 99.2%  
32 3% 98%  
33 2% 95%  
34 7% 93%  
35 9% 86%  
36 11% 78%  
37 12% 67%  
38 11% 55% Median
39 12% 44%  
40 9% 32% Last Result
41 10% 23%  
42 5% 12%  
43 4% 7%  
44 1.1% 3%  
45 0.8% 2%  
46 0.5% 1.0%  
47 0.3% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations