Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 11 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 21.0% 18.6–23.8% 17.9–24.6% 17.3–25.3% 16.2–26.6%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 20.8% 18.3–23.5% 17.6–24.3% 17.1–25.0% 16.0–26.4%
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 20.2% 17.8–23.0% 17.2–23.8% 16.6–24.5% 15.5–25.8%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 8.8% 7.2–10.8% 6.7–11.4% 6.4–11.9% 5.7–13.0%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 7.0% 5.6–8.9% 5.2–9.4% 4.9–9.9% 4.3–10.9%
Vox 0.0% 7.0% 5.6–8.9% 5.2–9.4% 4.9–9.9% 4.3–10.9%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 5.8% 4.5–7.5% 4.1–8.0% 3.9–8.5% 3.3–9.4%
Partit Popular 4.2% 5.0% 3.9–6.7% 3.5–7.2% 3.3–7.6% 2.8–8.5%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0.0% 1.5% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9% 0.7–3.2% 0.5–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya 34 33 30–38 29–39 28–40 25–43
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 28 25–32 24–33 23–34 21–37
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 30 27–35 25–36 24–37 22–39
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 12 8–14 8–14 8–16 6–18
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 8 5–11 5–11 5–12 4–14
Vox 0 9 7–12 6–12 5–14 5–15
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 8 5–10 4–11 4–11 3–13
Partit Popular 4 6 3–8 3–9 3–10 0–12
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–5

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.8%  
26 0.8% 99.4%  
27 0.9% 98.6%  
28 2% 98%  
29 4% 96%  
30 5% 92%  
31 13% 87%  
32 8% 74%  
33 18% 66% Median
34 7% 48% Last Result
35 11% 42%  
36 11% 31%  
37 6% 20%  
38 4% 14%  
39 5% 10%  
40 3% 5%  
41 0.6% 2%  
42 0.5% 1.0%  
43 0.3% 0.6%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0.3% 99.7%  
22 0.6% 99.5%  
23 2% 98.9%  
24 5% 97%  
25 9% 92%  
26 12% 83%  
27 18% 72%  
28 7% 53% Median
29 14% 46%  
30 7% 33%  
31 14% 25%  
32 5% 12%  
33 3% 7%  
34 2% 4%  
35 0.8% 2%  
36 0.7% 1.3%  
37 0.4% 0.6%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.9%  
23 0.4% 99.5%  
24 2% 99.0%  
25 3% 97%  
26 4% 94%  
27 4% 90%  
28 11% 86%  
29 10% 75%  
30 18% 65% Median
31 13% 47%  
32 8% 34% Last Result
33 7% 25%  
34 7% 19%  
35 5% 12%  
36 2% 7%  
37 3% 5%  
38 1.0% 2%  
39 0.6% 0.8%  
40 0.1% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.9% 99.9%  
7 1.0% 98.9%  
8 10% 98%  
9 8% 88%  
10 7% 80%  
11 6% 74%  
12 31% 68% Median
13 23% 36%  
14 9% 13%  
15 1.5% 4%  
16 0.8% 3%  
17 1.3% 2%  
18 0.7% 0.9%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 2% 99.9%  
5 8% 98%  
6 12% 90%  
7 16% 78%  
8 32% 62% Last Result, Median
9 14% 30%  
10 5% 15%  
11 7% 10%  
12 2% 3%  
13 1.2% 2%  
14 0.5% 0.7%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 0.2% 99.8%  
5 4% 99.6%  
6 3% 96%  
7 21% 93%  
8 7% 72%  
9 28% 65% Median
10 15% 38%  
11 10% 23%  
12 8% 13%  
13 2% 5%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.7% 0.8%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0.3% 99.9%  
3 1.3% 99.5%  
4 7% 98% Last Result
5 5% 91%  
6 4% 86%  
7 19% 82%  
8 37% 63% Median
9 16% 26%  
10 3% 10%  
11 6% 7%  
12 0.6% 1.1%  
13 0.2% 0.5%  
14 0.1% 0.3%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100%  
1 0% 99.2%  
2 0.7% 99.2%  
3 12% 98.5%  
4 4% 87% Last Result
5 27% 82%  
6 10% 55% Median
7 31% 45%  
8 5% 13%  
9 5% 8%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.6% 1.2%  
12 0.5% 0.6%  
13 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 9%  
2 0% 1.3%  
3 0.2% 1.3%  
4 0.2% 1.1%  
5 0.7% 0.8%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 72 89% 67–77 66–79 65–80 62–82
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 71 90% 67–77 65–79 64–80 62–82
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 70 72 90% 68–77 66–79 64–80 62–82
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 67 40% 62–72 60–73 59–74 57–77
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 66 64 20% 59–70 58–71 57–72 55–75
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 66 64 22% 59–70 58–71 57–72 55–75
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular 57 55 0.1% 50–60 48–61 47–62 45–65
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 54 0% 49–58 48–60 47–61 44–64
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 46 0% 41–50 40–51 39–53 37–55
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 38 0% 34–43 33–44 32–46 30–48

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.7%  
63 0.4% 99.5%  
64 0.9% 99.1%  
65 2% 98%  
66 2% 96%  
67 5% 94%  
68 4% 89% Majority
69 7% 85%  
70 9% 77%  
71 13% 68% Median
72 11% 55%  
73 8% 45%  
74 9% 36% Last Result
75 6% 27%  
76 4% 21%  
77 7% 17%  
78 4% 10%  
79 2% 6%  
80 3% 4%  
81 0.7% 1.4%  
82 0.4% 0.7%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.4% 99.6%  
63 0.5% 99.2%  
64 2% 98.6%  
65 2% 97%  
66 2% 95%  
67 3% 92%  
68 5% 90% Majority
69 4% 84%  
70 9% 80% Last Result
71 22% 71% Median
72 7% 49%  
73 10% 42%  
74 10% 32%  
75 5% 23%  
76 4% 17%  
77 4% 13%  
78 3% 9%  
79 3% 6%  
80 1.3% 3%  
81 1.1% 2%  
82 0.3% 0.7%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.7%  
63 0.5% 99.3%  
64 1.3% 98.8%  
65 2% 97%  
66 2% 95%  
67 3% 93%  
68 5% 90% Majority
69 3% 85%  
70 9% 82% Last Result
71 23% 73% Median
72 7% 50%  
73 10% 44%  
74 9% 33%  
75 6% 24%  
76 5% 18%  
77 4% 14%  
78 3% 10%  
79 3% 6%  
80 1.3% 3%  
81 1.2% 2%  
82 0.3% 0.7%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
58 0.7% 99.4%  
59 3% 98.7%  
60 1.5% 96%  
61 2% 95%  
62 4% 92%  
63 6% 88%  
64 10% 82%  
65 10% 72%  
66 10% 61% Median
67 11% 51%  
68 11% 40% Majority
69 7% 29%  
70 4% 22%  
71 5% 18%  
72 7% 13%  
73 3% 7%  
74 2% 4%  
75 1.1% 2%  
76 0.4% 1.2%  
77 0.4% 0.7%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 0.5% 99.5%  
56 0.8% 99.0%  
57 2% 98%  
58 3% 96%  
59 5% 94%  
60 5% 89%  
61 4% 84%  
62 4% 81%  
63 24% 77% Median
64 9% 53%  
65 6% 44%  
66 12% 39% Last Result
67 6% 26%  
68 6% 20% Majority
69 4% 15%  
70 3% 10%  
71 3% 7%  
72 3% 4%  
73 0.5% 1.3%  
74 0.2% 0.8%  
75 0.4% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.4% 99.6%  
56 0.7% 99.2%  
57 2% 98%  
58 2% 97%  
59 4% 94%  
60 5% 90%  
61 3% 85%  
62 4% 82%  
63 24% 78% Median
64 8% 54%  
65 7% 46%  
66 12% 40% Last Result
67 6% 28%  
68 7% 22% Majority
69 4% 15%  
70 4% 11%  
71 3% 7%  
72 3% 5%  
73 0.5% 1.4%  
74 0.3% 0.9%  
75 0.4% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.8%  
46 1.0% 99.4%  
47 1.4% 98%  
48 2% 97%  
49 5% 95%  
50 4% 90%  
51 4% 86%  
52 7% 82%  
53 6% 75%  
54 10% 68%  
55 11% 58% Median
56 14% 47%  
57 11% 33% Last Result
58 7% 22%  
59 4% 15%  
60 4% 11%  
61 3% 7%  
62 2% 4%  
63 1.4% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.9%  
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1% Majority
69 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.4% 99.8%  
45 0.8% 99.4%  
46 0.9% 98.6%  
47 2% 98%  
48 3% 96%  
49 5% 93%  
50 8% 87%  
51 6% 79%  
52 7% 73%  
53 9% 66%  
54 12% 57% Median
55 18% 45%  
56 7% 27%  
57 6% 20%  
58 5% 14%  
59 4% 10%  
60 3% 6%  
61 0.9% 3%  
62 1.4% 2%  
63 0.4% 1.0%  
64 0.3% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0% Majority

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.7%  
38 1.1% 99.1%  
39 2% 98%  
40 2% 96%  
41 5% 94%  
42 5% 89%  
43 7% 83%  
44 12% 76%  
45 9% 65%  
46 9% 56% Median
47 18% 47%  
48 8% 29%  
49 6% 21%  
50 7% 15%  
51 3% 8%  
52 2% 5%  
53 1.2% 3%  
54 0.9% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.8%  
56 0.2% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 0.5% 99.6%  
31 0.7% 99.0%  
32 3% 98%  
33 2% 95%  
34 3% 93%  
35 6% 90%  
36 13% 83%  
37 12% 70%  
38 13% 58% Median
39 10% 45%  
40 9% 35% Last Result
41 5% 26%  
42 8% 22%  
43 6% 13%  
44 3% 7%  
45 2% 5%  
46 1.4% 3%  
47 0.5% 1.3%  
48 0.3% 0.8%  
49 0.3% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations