Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 11 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 21.0% 18.6–23.8% 17.9–24.6% 17.3–25.3% 16.2–26.6%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 20.8% 18.3–23.5% 17.6–24.3% 17.1–25.0% 16.0–26.4%
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 20.2% 17.8–23.0% 17.2–23.8% 16.6–24.5% 15.5–25.8%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 8.8% 7.2–10.8% 6.7–11.4% 6.4–11.9% 5.7–13.0%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 7.0% 5.6–8.9% 5.2–9.4% 4.9–9.9% 4.3–10.9%
Vox 0.0% 7.0% 5.6–8.9% 5.2–9.4% 4.9–9.9% 4.3–10.9%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 5.8% 4.5–7.5% 4.1–8.0% 3.9–8.5% 3.3–9.4%
Partit Popular 4.2% 5.0% 3.9–6.7% 3.5–7.2% 3.3–7.6% 2.8–8.5%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0.0% 1.5% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9% 0.7–3.2% 0.5–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya 34 33 30–38 29–39 28–40 25–43
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 28 25–32 24–33 23–34 21–37
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 30 27–35 25–36 24–37 22–39
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 12 8–14 8–14 8–16 6–18
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 8 5–11 5–11 5–12 4–14
Vox 0 9 7–12 6–12 5–14 5–15
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 8 5–10 4–11 4–11 3–13
Partit Popular 4 6 3–8 3–9 3–10 0–12
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–5

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.8%  
26 0.8% 99.4%  
27 0.9% 98.6%  
28 2% 98%  
29 4% 96%  
30 5% 92%  
31 13% 87%  
32 8% 74%  
33 18% 66% Median
34 7% 48% Last Result
35 11% 42%  
36 11% 31%  
37 6% 20%  
38 4% 14%  
39 5% 10%  
40 3% 5%  
41 0.6% 2%  
42 0.5% 1.0%  
43 0.3% 0.6%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0.3% 99.7%  
22 0.6% 99.5%  
23 2% 98.9%  
24 5% 97%  
25 9% 92%  
26 12% 83%  
27 18% 72%  
28 7% 53% Median
29 14% 46%  
30 7% 33%  
31 14% 25%  
32 5% 12%  
33 3% 7%  
34 2% 4%  
35 0.8% 2%  
36 0.7% 1.3%  
37 0.4% 0.6%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.9%  
23 0.4% 99.5%  
24 2% 99.0%  
25 3% 97%  
26 4% 94%  
27 4% 90%  
28 11% 86%  
29 10% 75%  
30 18% 65% Median
31 13% 47%  
32 8% 34% Last Result
33 7% 25%  
34 7% 19%  
35 5% 12%  
36 2% 7%  
37 3% 5%  
38 1.0% 2%  
39 0.6% 0.8%  
40 0.1% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.9% 99.9%  
7 1.0% 98.9%  
8 10% 98%  
9 8% 88%  
10 7% 80%  
11 6% 74%  
12 31% 68% Median
13 23% 36%  
14 9% 13%  
15 1.5% 4%  
16 0.8% 3%  
17 1.3% 2%  
18 0.7% 0.9%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 2% 99.9%  
5 8% 98%  
6 12% 90%  
7 16% 78%  
8 32% 62% Last Result, Median
9 14% 30%  
10 5% 15%  
11 7% 10%  
12 2% 3%  
13 1.2% 2%  
14 0.5% 0.7%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 0.2% 99.8%  
5 4% 99.6%  
6 3% 96%  
7 21% 93%  
8 7% 72%  
9 28% 65% Median
10 15% 38%  
11 10% 23%  
12 8% 13%  
13 2% 5%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.7% 0.8%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0.3% 99.9%  
3 1.3% 99.5%  
4 7% 98% Last Result
5 5% 91%  
6 4% 86%  
7 19% 82%  
8 37% 63% Median
9 16% 26%  
10 3% 10%  
11 6% 7%  
12 0.6% 1.1%  
13 0.2% 0.5%  
14 0.1% 0.3%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100%  
1 0% 99.2%  
2 0.7% 99.2%  
3 12% 98.5%  
4 4% 87% Last Result
5 27% 82%  
6 10% 55% Median
7 31% 45%  
8 5% 13%  
9 5% 8%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.6% 1.2%  
12 0.5% 0.6%  
13 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 9%  
2 0% 1.3%  
3 0.2% 1.3%  
4 0.2% 1.1%  
5 0.7% 0.8%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 72 89% 67–77 66–79 65–80 62–82
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 71 90% 67–77 65–79 64–80 62–82
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 70 72 90% 68–77 66–79 64–80 62–82
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 67 40% 62–72 60–73 59–74 57–77
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 66 64 20% 59–70 58–71 57–72 55–75
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 66 64 22% 59–70 58–71 57–72 55–75
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular 57 55 0.1% 50–60 48–61 47–62 45–65
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 54 0% 49–58 48–60 47–61 44–64
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 46 0% 41–50 40–51 39–53 37–55
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 38 0% 34–43 33–44 32–46 30–48

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.7%  
63 0.4% 99.5%  
64 0.9% 99.1%  
65 2% 98%  
66 2% 96%  
67 5% 94%  
68 4% 89% Majority
69 7% 85%  
70 9% 77%  
71 13% 68% Median
72 11% 55%  
73 8% 45%  
74 9% 36% Last Result
75 6% 27%  
76 4% 21%  
77 7% 17%  
78 4% 10%  
79 2% 6%  
80 3% 4%  
81 0.7% 1.4%  
82 0.4% 0.7%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.4% 99.6%  
63 0.5% 99.2%  
64 2% 98.6%  
65 2% 97%  
66 2% 95%  
67 3% 92%  
68 5% 90% Majority
69 4% 84%  
70 9% 80% Last Result
71 22% 71% Median
72 7% 49%  
73 10% 42%  
74 10% 32%  
75 5% 23%  
76 4% 17%  
77 4% 13%  
78 3% 9%  
79 3% 6%  
80 1.3% 3%  
81 1.1% 2%  
82 0.3% 0.7%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.7%  
63 0.5% 99.3%  
64 1.3% 98.8%  
65 2% 97%  
66 2% 95%  
67 3% 93%  
68 5% 90% Majority
69 3% 85%  
70 9% 82% Last Result
71 23% 73% Median
72 7% 50%  
73 10% 44%  
74 9% 33%  
75 6% 24%  
76 5% 18%  
77 4% 14%  
78 3% 10%  
79 3% 6%  
80 1.3% 3%  
81 1.2% 2%  
82 0.3% 0.7%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
58 0.7% 99.4%  
59 3% 98.7%  
60 1.5% 96%  
61 2% 95%  
62 4% 92%  
63 6% 88%  
64 10% 82%  
65 10% 72%  
66 10% 61% Median
67 11% 51%  
68 11% 40% Majority
69 7% 29%  
70 4% 22%  
71 5% 18%  
72 7% 13%  
73 3% 7%  
74 2% 4%  
75 1.1% 2%  
76 0.4% 1.2%  
77 0.4% 0.7%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 0.5% 99.5%  
56 0.8% 99.0%  
57 2% 98%  
58 3% 96%  
59 5% 94%  
60 5% 89%  
61 4% 84%  
62 4% 81%  
63 24% 77% Median
64 9% 53%  
65 6% 44%  
66 12% 39% Last Result
67 6% 26%  
68 6% 20% Majority
69 4% 15%  
70 3% 10%  
71 3% 7%  
72 3% 4%  
73 0.5% 1.3%  
74 0.2% 0.8%  
75 0.4% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.4% 99.6%  
56 0.7% 99.2%  
57 2% 98%  
58 2% 97%  
59 4% 94%  
60 5% 90%  
61 3% 85%  
62 4% 82%  
63 24% 78% Median
64 8% 54%  
65 7% 46%  
66 12% 40% Last Result
67 6% 28%  
68 7% 22% Majority
69 4% 15%  
70 4% 11%  
71 3% 7%  
72 3% 5%  
73 0.5% 1.4%  
74 0.3% 0.9%  
75 0.4% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.8%  
46 1.0% 99.4%  
47 1.4% 98%  
48 2% 97%  
49 5% 95%  
50 4% 90%  
51 4% 86%  
52 7% 82%  
53 6% 75%  
54 10% 68%  
55 11% 58% Median
56 14% 47%  
57 11% 33% Last Result
58 7% 22%  
59 4% 15%  
60 4% 11%  
61 3% 7%  
62 2% 4%  
63 1.4% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.9%  
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1% Majority
69 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.4% 99.8%  
45 0.8% 99.4%  
46 0.9% 98.6%  
47 2% 98%  
48 3% 96%  
49 5% 93%  
50 8% 87%  
51 6% 79%  
52 7% 73%  
53 9% 66%  
54 12% 57% Median
55 18% 45%  
56 7% 27%  
57 6% 20%  
58 5% 14%  
59 4% 10%  
60 3% 6%  
61 0.9% 3%  
62 1.4% 2%  
63 0.4% 1.0%  
64 0.3% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0% Majority

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.7%  
38 1.1% 99.1%  
39 2% 98%  
40 2% 96%  
41 5% 94%  
42 5% 89%  
43 7% 83%  
44 12% 76%  
45 9% 65%  
46 9% 56% Median
47 18% 47%  
48 8% 29%  
49 6% 21%  
50 7% 15%  
51 3% 8%  
52 2% 5%  
53 1.2% 3%  
54 0.9% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.8%  
56 0.2% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 0.5% 99.6%  
31 0.7% 99.0%  
32 3% 98%  
33 2% 95%  
34 3% 93%  
35 6% 90%  
36 13% 83%  
37 12% 70%  
38 13% 58% Median
39 10% 45%  
40 9% 35% Last Result
41 5% 26%  
42 8% 22%  
43 6% 13%  
44 3% 7%  
45 2% 5%  
46 1.4% 3%  
47 0.5% 1.3%  
48 0.3% 0.8%  
49 0.3% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations