Opinion Poll by Feedback for The National, 5–12 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 20.5% 18.5–22.8% 18.0–23.5% 17.5–24.0% 16.5–25.1%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 19.7% 17.7–21.9% 17.1–22.6% 16.7–23.1% 15.7–24.2%
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 18.8% 16.9–21.0% 16.3–21.7% 15.9–22.2% 15.0–23.3%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 9.6% 8.2–11.3% 7.8–11.8% 7.5–12.3% 6.8–13.1%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 7.9% 6.6–9.5% 6.2–10.0% 6.0–10.4% 5.4–11.2%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 6.3% 5.2–7.8% 4.9–8.2% 4.6–8.6% 4.1–9.4%
Vox 0.0% 5.7% 4.6–7.1% 4.3–7.5% 4.1–7.8% 3.6–8.6%
Partit Popular 4.2% 4.6% 3.7–5.9% 3.4–6.3% 3.2–6.6% 2.8–7.3%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0.0% 2.6% 1.9–3.6% 1.7–3.9% 1.6–4.2% 1.3–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya 34 34 31–37 30–38 29–39 27–41
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 27 25–31 24–32 24–33 22–34
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 28 25–32 24–33 24–35 23–36
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 13 11–16 11–16 10–17 8–18
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 9 8–12 7–12 7–13 5–14
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 8 7–11 7–11 6–11 4–13
Vox 0 7 5–9 5–10 3–11 3–12
Partit Popular 4 5 3–7 3–8 3–9 0–10
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0 1 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–6

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 0.6% 99.5%  
28 0.8% 98.9%  
29 3% 98%  
30 4% 95%  
31 16% 92%  
32 11% 76%  
33 11% 64%  
34 9% 53% Last Result, Median
35 12% 45%  
36 9% 33%  
37 15% 23%  
38 4% 8%  
39 2% 5%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.6%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0.2% 99.8%  
22 1.1% 99.6%  
23 0.9% 98.6%  
24 6% 98%  
25 12% 92%  
26 22% 79%  
27 16% 57% Median
28 9% 41%  
29 7% 31%  
30 8% 25%  
31 11% 17%  
32 3% 6%  
33 0.8% 3%  
34 2% 2%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.8%  
23 0.8% 99.6%  
24 5% 98.8%  
25 6% 94%  
26 4% 88%  
27 9% 84%  
28 32% 75% Median
29 5% 43%  
30 5% 37%  
31 14% 33%  
32 12% 18% Last Result
33 2% 7%  
34 0.9% 4%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.8% 1.0%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 1.0% 100%  
9 0.9% 99.0%  
10 3% 98%  
11 9% 95%  
12 20% 87%  
13 41% 67% Median
14 12% 26%  
15 3% 14%  
16 8% 11%  
17 1.3% 3%  
18 1.0% 1.4%  
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.8% 100%  
6 1.4% 99.2%  
7 5% 98%  
8 26% 93% Last Result
9 30% 66% Median
10 9% 36%  
11 15% 27%  
12 6% 11%  
13 3% 5%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 1.0% 99.9% Last Result
5 1.0% 98.9%  
6 1.4% 98%  
7 13% 96%  
8 34% 83% Median
9 29% 49%  
10 8% 20%  
11 10% 13%  
12 1.3% 2%  
13 0.9% 1.2%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 1.4% 97%  
5 10% 96%  
6 13% 86%  
7 44% 73% Median
8 13% 29%  
9 8% 16%  
10 5% 8%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.7% 0.8%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 0% 99.4%  
2 2% 99.4%  
3 16% 98%  
4 7% 82% Last Result
5 28% 75% Median
6 13% 46%  
7 26% 34%  
8 5% 7%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.5% 0.6%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 42% 100% Last Result
1 41% 58% Median
2 0.2% 17%  
3 3% 16%  
4 5% 13%  
5 6% 8%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.3% 0.4%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 70 73 94% 68–77 67–78 66–79 64–81
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 72 90% 68–76 66–77 66–79 64–80
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 71 87% 67–75 66–76 65–77 63–80
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 65 32% 61–70 60–72 59–72 57–74
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 66 64 13% 60–68 59–69 58–70 56–73
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 66 63 6% 59–67 57–68 57–69 54–71
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 55 0% 51–60 50–61 49–62 47–63
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular 57 53 0% 49–57 48–58 47–59 45–61
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 46 0% 42–50 41–51 40–52 38–54
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 38 0% 35–43 33–43 32–44 31–46

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.5% 99.7%  
65 0.8% 99.2%  
66 1.2% 98%  
67 3% 97%  
68 6% 94% Majority
69 8% 88%  
70 5% 80% Last Result
71 10% 75% Median
72 12% 65%  
73 12% 52%  
74 11% 40%  
75 12% 29%  
76 6% 17%  
77 5% 11%  
78 4% 7%  
79 1.1% 3%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.5% 0.8%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.6%  
65 1.4% 99.2%  
66 3% 98%  
67 4% 95%  
68 4% 90% Majority
69 6% 86%  
70 6% 80%  
71 12% 73% Median
72 12% 61%  
73 14% 49%  
74 12% 35% Last Result
75 9% 23%  
76 6% 14%  
77 3% 8%  
78 2% 5%  
79 1.3% 3%  
80 1.0% 1.3%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.5% 99.6%  
64 1.1% 99.2%  
65 1.1% 98%  
66 4% 97%  
67 6% 93%  
68 9% 87% Majority
69 6% 78%  
70 8% 72% Last Result, Median
71 15% 65%  
72 10% 50%  
73 9% 40%  
74 15% 31%  
75 6% 15%  
76 5% 9%  
77 2% 5%  
78 1.2% 2%  
79 0.5% 1.3%  
80 0.6% 0.8%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
58 0.6% 99.5%  
59 2% 98.8%  
60 3% 97%  
61 5% 95%  
62 4% 90%  
63 13% 86%  
64 12% 73% Median
65 13% 61%  
66 6% 48%  
67 9% 41%  
68 11% 32% Majority
69 7% 21%  
70 5% 14%  
71 3% 9%  
72 3% 6%  
73 0.8% 2%  
74 1.2% 2%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.7% 99.6%  
57 1.0% 98.9%  
58 3% 98%  
59 5% 95%  
60 7% 90%  
61 6% 84%  
62 8% 77%  
63 9% 69% Median
64 18% 60%  
65 10% 42%  
66 13% 32% Last Result
67 7% 20%  
68 4% 13% Majority
69 5% 8%  
70 2% 4%  
71 1.3% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.9%  
73 0.4% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.8%  
55 0.5% 99.4%  
56 1.1% 98.9%  
57 3% 98%  
58 4% 95%  
59 9% 91%  
60 7% 82%  
61 6% 75%  
62 9% 68% Median
63 17% 60%  
64 12% 43%  
65 14% 31%  
66 6% 17% Last Result
67 6% 11%  
68 2% 6% Majority
69 2% 3%  
70 0.9% 2%  
71 0.4% 0.7%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.5% 99.8%  
48 1.1% 99.3%  
49 1.4% 98%  
50 4% 97%  
51 4% 93%  
52 8% 89%  
53 13% 81%  
54 9% 68% Median
55 12% 60%  
56 11% 47%  
57 12% 36%  
58 4% 24%  
59 8% 19%  
60 5% 11%  
61 3% 6%  
62 1.4% 3%  
63 0.7% 1.2%  
64 0.2% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.7%  
46 1.2% 99.4%  
47 2% 98%  
48 3% 96%  
49 7% 94%  
50 8% 87%  
51 15% 79%  
52 11% 65% Median
53 10% 54%  
54 10% 43%  
55 11% 33%  
56 8% 23%  
57 4% 14% Last Result
58 6% 10%  
59 2% 4%  
60 1.4% 2%  
61 0.4% 0.9%  
62 0.3% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.4% 99.8%  
39 1.2% 99.4%  
40 1.1% 98%  
41 3% 97%  
42 9% 94%  
43 6% 86%  
44 14% 80%  
45 12% 66% Median
46 15% 54%  
47 9% 39%  
48 8% 30%  
49 9% 22%  
50 4% 13%  
51 5% 10%  
52 3% 4%  
53 0.3% 1.4%  
54 0.7% 1.1%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.9% 99.7%  
32 2% 98.9%  
33 3% 97%  
34 2% 94%  
35 8% 92%  
36 11% 84%  
37 22% 73% Median
38 8% 51%  
39 10% 43%  
40 11% 34% Last Result
41 7% 23%  
42 5% 15%  
43 7% 11%  
44 2% 4%  
45 1.0% 2%  
46 0.3% 0.7%  
47 0.2% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations