Opinion Poll by Metroscopia, 1–12 February 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 23.2% | 22.1–24.3% | 21.8–24.6% | 21.6–24.9% | 21.0–25.5% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 21.1% | 20.1–22.2% | 19.8–22.5% | 19.5–22.8% | 19.0–23.3% |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 20.3% | 19.3–21.4% | 19.0–21.7% | 18.7–22.0% | 18.3–22.5% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 9.0% | 8.3–9.8% | 8.1–10.0% | 7.9–10.2% | 7.6–10.6% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.8–7.1% | 5.6–7.3% | 5.5–7.5% | 5.2–7.8% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.3–6.5% | 5.1–6.7% | 5.0–6.9% | 4.7–7.2% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 5.4% | 4.8–6.0% | 4.7–6.2% | 4.6–6.4% | 4.3–6.7% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.8–5.9% | 4.6–6.1% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.2–6.6% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.9–2.7% | 1.8–2.8% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 32 | 30–33 | 30–34 | 30–34 | 29–35 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 34 | 32–35 | 31–36 | 31–37 | 31–37 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 30 | 28–32 | 28–33 | 28–33 | 27–34 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 12 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–10 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 8 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 5–9 |
| Vox | 0 | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–9 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 1.5% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 9% | 98% | |
| 31 | 26% | 89% | |
| 32 | 35% | 64% | Median |
| 33 | 22% | 29% | |
| 34 | 6% | 8% | |
| 35 | 2% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 31 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 14% | 94% | |
| 33 | 20% | 80% | |
| 34 | 21% | 59% | Last Result, Median |
| 35 | 30% | 38% | |
| 36 | 5% | 9% | |
| 37 | 3% | 4% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 28 | 13% | 99.5% | |
| 29 | 29% | 87% | |
| 30 | 18% | 58% | Median |
| 31 | 29% | 40% | |
| 32 | 5% | 11% | Last Result |
| 33 | 4% | 7% | |
| 34 | 2% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 5% | 96% | |
| 11 | 3% | 90% | |
| 12 | 66% | 87% | Median |
| 13 | 20% | 21% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 15% | 100% | |
| 6 | 29% | 85% | |
| 7 | 32% | 56% | Median |
| 8 | 23% | 25% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 7 | 23% | 98% | |
| 8 | 67% | 74% | Median |
| 9 | 7% | 7% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 21% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 19% | 79% | |
| 7 | 58% | 60% | Median |
| 8 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 9 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 5 | 31% | 99.3% | |
| 6 | 14% | 68% | |
| 7 | 53% | 54% | Median |
| 8 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 85% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 15% | 15% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 70 | 72 | 99.8% | 70–74 | 69–74 | 69–75 | 68–76 |
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 72 | 99.7% | 69–74 | 69–74 | 68–75 | 68–76 |
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 71 | 98.8% | 68–73 | 68–73 | 68–74 | 67–75 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 68 | 81% | 66–71 | 66–72 | 66–72 | 65–74 |
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 66 | 64 | 1.0% | 61–66 | 61–67 | 61–67 | 60–68 |
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 66 | 64 | 1.3% | 62–66 | 61–67 | 61–67 | 60–68 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 57 | 0% | 55–59 | 54–59 | 54–60 | 53–61 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular | 57 | 56 | 0% | 55–58 | 54–59 | 53–59 | 52–60 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 50 | 0% | 48–52 | 48–52 | 47–53 | 46–54 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 37 | 0% | 35–39 | 34–40 | 34–40 | 34–42 |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 68 | 2% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 69 | 6% | 98% | |
| 70 | 14% | 92% | Last Result |
| 71 | 22% | 77% | |
| 72 | 20% | 56% | Median |
| 73 | 18% | 36% | |
| 74 | 16% | 19% | |
| 75 | 2% | 3% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 68 | 3% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 69 | 8% | 97% | |
| 70 | 13% | 89% | Last Result |
| 71 | 25% | 76% | |
| 72 | 16% | 50% | Median |
| 73 | 18% | 35% | |
| 74 | 14% | 17% | |
| 75 | 2% | 3% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 9% | 98.8% | Majority |
| 69 | 18% | 90% | |
| 70 | 22% | 72% | |
| 71 | 21% | 51% | Median |
| 72 | 19% | 30% | |
| 73 | 7% | 10% | |
| 74 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 75 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 1.5% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 9% | 98% | |
| 67 | 8% | 89% | |
| 68 | 35% | 81% | Majority |
| 69 | 19% | 47% | Median |
| 70 | 17% | 28% | |
| 71 | 6% | 11% | |
| 72 | 4% | 5% | |
| 73 | 1.0% | 1.5% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 60 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 8% | 98% | |
| 62 | 11% | 90% | |
| 63 | 22% | 79% | |
| 64 | 21% | 57% | Median |
| 65 | 15% | 36% | |
| 66 | 17% | 22% | Last Result |
| 67 | 4% | 5% | |
| 68 | 0.8% | 1.0% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 6% | 98.8% | |
| 62 | 12% | 93% | |
| 63 | 18% | 81% | |
| 64 | 25% | 63% | Median |
| 65 | 14% | 38% | |
| 66 | 18% | 24% | Last Result |
| 67 | 4% | 5% | |
| 68 | 1.0% | 1.3% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 54 | 7% | 98% | |
| 55 | 11% | 92% | |
| 56 | 28% | 80% | |
| 57 | 19% | 53% | |
| 58 | 19% | 34% | Median |
| 59 | 11% | 15% | |
| 60 | 3% | 4% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 54 | 5% | 97% | |
| 55 | 13% | 92% | |
| 56 | 31% | 79% | |
| 57 | 21% | 47% | Last Result |
| 58 | 17% | 26% | Median |
| 59 | 8% | 9% | |
| 60 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 48 | 9% | 96% | |
| 49 | 18% | 87% | |
| 50 | 29% | 68% | |
| 51 | 24% | 39% | Median |
| 52 | 11% | 15% | |
| 53 | 3% | 4% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 34 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 35 | 15% | 95% | |
| 36 | 25% | 80% | |
| 37 | 33% | 55% | Median |
| 38 | 8% | 22% | |
| 39 | 8% | 14% | |
| 40 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 41 | 2% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Metroscopia
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 1–12 February 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 2432
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.10%