Opinion Poll by GAD3 for RTVE–CCMA, 14 February 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 24.5% | 23.7–25.4% | 23.4–25.6% | 23.2–25.8% | 22.8–26.2% |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 24.3% | 23.5–25.2% | 23.2–25.4% | 23.0–25.6% | 22.6–26.0% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 20.5% | 19.7–21.3% | 19.5–21.5% | 19.3–21.7% | 18.9–22.1% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.5–6.5% | 5.4–6.6% | 5.3–6.8% | 5.1–7.0% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.5–6.4% | 5.3–6.5% | 5.2–6.7% | 5.0–6.9% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.0–5.9% | 4.9–6.0% | 4.8–6.1% | 4.6–6.4% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 5.3% | 4.9–5.8% | 4.8–5.9% | 4.6–6.0% | 4.5–6.2% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.2–5.1% | 4.1–5.2% | 4.0–5.3% | 3.8–5.5% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.2–2.8% | 2.1–2.9% | 2.1–3.0% | 1.9–3.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 34 | 32–35 | 32–35 | 32–36 | 31–37 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 37 | 36–39 | 36–40 | 35–40 | 35–41 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 32 | 31–35 | 31–35 | 31–35 | 31–36 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| Vox | 0 | 7 | 7–8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 5 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 25% | 98% | |
| 33 | 22% | 73% | |
| 34 | 27% | 51% | Median |
| 35 | 21% | 25% | |
| 36 | 3% | 4% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 11% | 95% | |
| 37 | 43% | 84% | Median |
| 38 | 20% | 42% | |
| 39 | 16% | 22% | |
| 40 | 4% | 6% | |
| 41 | 2% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 16% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 38% | 84% | Median |
| 33 | 16% | 46% | |
| 34 | 13% | 30% | Last Result |
| 35 | 16% | 17% | |
| 36 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 28% | 100% | |
| 6 | 39% | 72% | Median |
| 7 | 29% | 34% | |
| 8 | 5% | 5% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 83% | 97% | Median |
| 8 | 7% | 14% | |
| 9 | 7% | 7% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 6 | 14% | 98% | |
| 7 | 62% | 84% | Median |
| 8 | 22% | 22% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 35% | 100% | |
| 6 | 49% | 65% | Median |
| 7 | 15% | 16% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 7% | 100% | |
| 4 | 12% | 93% | Last Result |
| 5 | 70% | 81% | Median |
| 6 | 10% | 12% | |
| 7 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 83% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 17% | 17% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 77 | 100% | 75–79 | 75–79 | 75–80 | 74–80 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 78 | 100% | 75–79 | 75–80 | 74–80 | 74–81 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 70 | 78 | 100% | 76–79 | 75–80 | 74–80 | 74–81 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 77 | 100% | 75–78 | 74–79 | 73–79 | 73–80 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 66 | 71 | 98% | 69–72 | 68–73 | 68–73 | 67–73 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 70 | 97% | 68–72 | 68–73 | 67–73 | 67–73 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Vox – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 51 | 0% | 50–53 | 49–54 | 49–54 | 48–55 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 65 | 50 | 0% | 49–52 | 48–53 | 48–53 | 47–54 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 44 | 0% | 43–46 | 42–46 | 42–47 | 41–48 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 43 | 0% | 42–45 | 42–46 | 42–46 | 41–47 |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 74 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 75 | 17% | 98.5% | |
| 76 | 14% | 82% | |
| 77 | 23% | 67% | Median |
| 78 | 26% | 44% | |
| 79 | 14% | 18% | |
| 80 | 3% | 4% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 74 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 75 | 9% | 96% | |
| 76 | 23% | 88% | Median |
| 77 | 14% | 64% | |
| 78 | 22% | 50% | |
| 79 | 21% | 28% | |
| 80 | 6% | 7% | |
| 81 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 74 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 75 | 6% | 97% | |
| 76 | 18% | 91% | Median |
| 77 | 19% | 73% | |
| 78 | 25% | 53% | |
| 79 | 20% | 29% | |
| 80 | 7% | 8% | |
| 81 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 73 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 74 | 6% | 97% | Last Result |
| 75 | 17% | 90% | Median |
| 76 | 23% | 73% | |
| 77 | 25% | 50% | |
| 78 | 19% | 25% | |
| 79 | 5% | 6% | |
| 80 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 67 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 7% | 98% | Majority |
| 69 | 16% | 91% | Median |
| 70 | 21% | 75% | |
| 71 | 31% | 54% | |
| 72 | 17% | 23% | |
| 73 | 6% | 6% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 67 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 68 | 9% | 97% | Majority |
| 69 | 19% | 88% | Median |
| 70 | 20% | 69% | |
| 71 | 27% | 49% | |
| 72 | 16% | 22% | |
| 73 | 5% | 5% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Vox – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 6% | 98.9% | |
| 50 | 23% | 93% | |
| 51 | 22% | 69% | |
| 52 | 25% | 47% | Median |
| 53 | 17% | 22% | |
| 54 | 4% | 5% | |
| 55 | 2% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 8% | 98.7% | |
| 49 | 21% | 91% | |
| 50 | 30% | 70% | |
| 51 | 18% | 40% | Median |
| 52 | 16% | 23% | |
| 53 | 5% | 7% | |
| 54 | 2% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 7% | 99.0% | |
| 43 | 24% | 92% | |
| 44 | 27% | 67% | |
| 45 | 24% | 41% | Median |
| 46 | 13% | 17% | |
| 47 | 3% | 4% | |
| 48 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 42 | 15% | 98.6% | |
| 43 | 34% | 83% | Median |
| 44 | 27% | 49% | |
| 45 | 15% | 22% | |
| 46 | 6% | 8% | |
| 47 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GAD3
- Commissioner(s): RTVE–CCMA
- Fieldwork period: 14 February 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 4250
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.82%