Opinion Poll by GESOP for El Periódico, 4–14 February 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 22.7% | 21.6–23.9% | 21.3–24.2% | 21.0–24.5% | 20.5–25.0% |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 20.4% | 19.4–21.5% | 19.1–21.9% | 18.8–22.1% | 18.3–22.7% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 20.0% | 18.9–21.1% | 18.6–21.4% | 18.4–21.7% | 17.9–22.2% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 7.5% | 6.8–8.2% | 6.6–8.5% | 6.5–8.7% | 6.2–9.0% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.7–8.1% | 6.5–8.3% | 6.3–8.5% | 6.0–8.8% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 6.0% | 5.4–6.7% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.8–7.4% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.0–6.2% | 4.8–6.4% | 4.6–6.5% | 4.4–6.9% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.0–6.2% | 4.8–6.4% | 4.6–6.5% | 4.4–6.9% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.5–3.4% | 2.4–3.6% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.1–3.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 32 | 30–34 | 29–34 | 29–35 | 28–36 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 31 | 29–33 | 28–33 | 28–34 | 27–35 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 32 | 31–34 | 30–35 | 29–35 | 29–37 |
| Vox | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 7–12 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 8–9 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–11 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 7 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 29 | 6% | 98.8% | |
| 30 | 15% | 92% | |
| 31 | 20% | 77% | |
| 32 | 26% | 57% | Median |
| 33 | 17% | 31% | |
| 34 | 11% | 14% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 29 | 9% | 95% | |
| 30 | 28% | 85% | |
| 31 | 30% | 57% | Median |
| 32 | 16% | 28% | Last Result |
| 33 | 8% | 11% | |
| 34 | 2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 6% | 97% | |
| 31 | 17% | 91% | |
| 32 | 32% | 74% | Median |
| 33 | 22% | 42% | |
| 34 | 13% | 20% | Last Result |
| 35 | 5% | 7% | |
| 36 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 8% | 98.9% | |
| 9 | 39% | 91% | |
| 10 | 41% | 52% | Median |
| 11 | 7% | 11% | |
| 12 | 5% | 5% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 9% | 99.2% | |
| 8 | 53% | 90% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 33% | 37% | |
| 10 | 2% | 4% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 38% | 96% | |
| 7 | 24% | 59% | Median |
| 8 | 34% | 35% | |
| 9 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 7 | 47% | 96% | Median |
| 8 | 47% | 48% | |
| 9 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 18% | 97% | |
| 7 | 66% | 78% | Median |
| 8 | 11% | 12% | |
| 9 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 33% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 57% | 67% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 4 | 5% | 8% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 70 | 71 | 99.1% | 70–74 | 69–74 | 68–75 | 67–76 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 72 | 98.7% | 69–74 | 68–74 | 68–75 | 67–76 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 71 | 96% | 68–73 | 68–73 | 67–74 | 66–75 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 71 | 96% | 68–73 | 68–74 | 67–74 | 66–75 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 66 | 64 | 3% | 62–66 | 61–67 | 61–68 | 60–69 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 63 | 0.6% | 61–65 | 60–66 | 60–66 | 59–68 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Vox – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 55 | 0% | 53–57 | 52–58 | 52–59 | 51–60 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 65 | 54 | 0% | 52–56 | 51–57 | 50–57 | 50–58 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 46 | 0% | 44–48 | 43–49 | 42–49 | 41–50 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 39 | 0% | 37–41 | 37–42 | 36–42 | 35–43 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 3% | 99.1% | Majority |
| 69 | 6% | 96% | |
| 70 | 15% | 90% | Last Result |
| 71 | 27% | 75% | Median |
| 72 | 21% | 48% | |
| 73 | 13% | 27% | |
| 74 | 9% | 13% | |
| 75 | 3% | 4% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 67 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 68 | 5% | 98.7% | Majority |
| 69 | 8% | 94% | |
| 70 | 16% | 86% | |
| 71 | 15% | 70% | Median |
| 72 | 29% | 55% | |
| 73 | 16% | 26% | |
| 74 | 7% | 11% | Last Result |
| 75 | 3% | 4% | |
| 76 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 67 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 68 | 6% | 96% | Majority |
| 69 | 16% | 90% | |
| 70 | 22% | 73% | Last Result, Median |
| 71 | 19% | 52% | |
| 72 | 21% | 33% | |
| 73 | 8% | 12% | |
| 74 | 2% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 68 | 10% | 96% | Majority |
| 69 | 9% | 87% | |
| 70 | 18% | 78% | |
| 71 | 17% | 60% | Median |
| 72 | 24% | 43% | |
| 73 | 14% | 19% | |
| 74 | 4% | 5% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 60 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 61 | 6% | 98.6% | |
| 62 | 8% | 93% | |
| 63 | 20% | 85% | |
| 64 | 27% | 65% | Median |
| 65 | 18% | 38% | |
| 66 | 12% | 20% | Last Result |
| 67 | 5% | 8% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 1.5% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 6% | 98% | |
| 61 | 8% | 92% | |
| 62 | 19% | 84% | |
| 63 | 20% | 65% | Median |
| 64 | 25% | 45% | |
| 65 | 14% | 21% | |
| 66 | 5% | 7% | Last Result |
| 67 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 0.6% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Vox – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 4% | 98% | |
| 53 | 9% | 94% | |
| 54 | 19% | 86% | |
| 55 | 28% | 66% | |
| 56 | 17% | 38% | Median |
| 57 | 14% | 21% | Last Result |
| 58 | 5% | 7% | |
| 59 | 2% | 3% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 51 | 6% | 97% | |
| 52 | 13% | 91% | |
| 53 | 16% | 78% | |
| 54 | 28% | 62% | Median |
| 55 | 18% | 34% | |
| 56 | 8% | 16% | |
| 57 | 6% | 8% | |
| 58 | 2% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 43 | 6% | 96% | |
| 44 | 18% | 90% | |
| 45 | 22% | 73% | |
| 46 | 26% | 50% | Median |
| 47 | 9% | 25% | |
| 48 | 10% | 15% | |
| 49 | 5% | 5% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 37 | 7% | 96% | |
| 38 | 25% | 89% | |
| 39 | 28% | 64% | Median |
| 40 | 18% | 36% | Last Result |
| 41 | 10% | 18% | |
| 42 | 5% | 8% | |
| 43 | 2% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GESOP
- Commissioner(s): El Periódico
- Fieldwork period: 4–14 February 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 2282
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.96%