Opinion Poll by SyM Consulting, 2–14 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 22.1% 21.2–23.1% 20.9–23.4% 20.7–23.6% 20.2–24.1%
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 20.6% 19.7–21.6% 19.4–21.8% 19.2–22.1% 18.8–22.5%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 17.8% 16.9–18.7% 16.7–19.0% 16.5–19.2% 16.1–19.6%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 12.0% 11.3–12.8% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Vox 0.0% 9.4% 8.8–10.1% 8.6–10.3% 8.4–10.5% 8.1–10.8%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 7.0% 6.4–7.6% 6.3–7.8% 6.2–8.0% 5.9–8.3%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.0% 4.6–6.2% 4.3–6.4%
Partit Popular 4.2% 3.8% 3.4–4.3% 3.3–4.4% 3.2–4.6% 3.0–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya 34 35 33–37 32–37 32–37 32–38
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 31 29–32 28–33 28–33 28–34
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 24 23–25 23–25 23–25 21–26
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 15 14–18 14–18 14–18 14–18
Vox 0 12 12–13 11–14 10–14 10–15
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 8 7–8 7–9 6–9 6–9
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 7 6–8 6–8 5–8 4–8
Partit Popular 4 3 3–4 3–5 2–5 2–5

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.4% 100%  
32 10% 99.6%  
33 10% 90%  
34 22% 80% Last Result
35 22% 58% Median
36 16% 36%  
37 19% 20%  
38 1.0% 1.1%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.4% 100%  
28 5% 99.5%  
29 30% 94%  
30 13% 64%  
31 38% 51% Median
32 8% 14% Last Result
33 6% 6%  
34 0.6% 0.7%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.8%  
22 2% 99.4%  
23 13% 98%  
24 49% 84% Median
25 33% 35%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.5% 100%  
14 26% 99.5%  
15 32% 74% Median
16 21% 42%  
17 10% 21%  
18 11% 11%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 3% 100%  
11 3% 97%  
12 61% 94% Median
13 24% 33%  
14 9% 9%  
15 0.7% 0.7%  
16 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 3% 99.7%  
7 32% 96%  
8 59% 65% Last Result, Median
9 5% 6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100% Last Result
5 2% 98%  
6 17% 96%  
7 57% 79% Median
8 22% 22%  
9 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 3% 99.9%  
3 83% 97% Median
4 5% 14% Last Result
5 9% 9%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 73 99.9% 71–75 70–75 69–76 68–77
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 72 99.8% 70–74 69–74 69–75 68–76
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 66 65 6% 63–67 62–68 62–68 61–69
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 62 0% 60–64 60–65 60–65 58–66
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular 57 55 0% 53–57 53–58 52–59 52–59
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 50 0% 49–53 48–53 48–54 47–55
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 43 0% 41–45 41–45 40–46 40–47
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 38 0% 36–40 36–40 36–41 35–42

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.6% 99.9% Majority
69 2% 99.4%  
70 6% 97%  
71 13% 92%  
72 16% 79%  
73 27% 63%  
74 24% 35% Last Result, Median
75 7% 11%  
76 3% 5%  
77 1.3% 1.4%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 1.1% 99.8% Majority
69 5% 98.8%  
70 12% 93% Last Result
71 13% 81%  
72 21% 68%  
73 30% 47% Median
74 13% 17%  
75 4% 5%  
76 0.7% 0.9%  
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 1.1% 99.8%  
62 5% 98.7%  
63 11% 94%  
64 13% 83%  
65 25% 70%  
66 27% 45% Last Result, Median
67 12% 18%  
68 4% 6% Majority
69 2% 2%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0.5% 99.9%  
59 1.3% 99.4%  
60 11% 98%  
61 24% 87%  
62 18% 63%  
63 29% 45% Median
64 10% 16%  
65 5% 6%  
66 0.8% 1.0%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0% Majority

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 3% 99.6%  
53 8% 97%  
54 27% 89% Median
55 23% 63%  
56 19% 40%  
57 12% 21% Last Result
58 7% 9%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.4% 0.4%  
61 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.7% 99.7%  
48 7% 99.0%  
49 19% 92%  
50 27% 73% Median
51 17% 46%  
52 17% 29%  
53 9% 12%  
54 3% 3%  
55 0.5% 0.5%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 3% 99.5%  
41 19% 97%  
42 19% 78% Median
43 23% 58%  
44 20% 35%  
45 10% 15%  
46 4% 5%  
47 0.8% 0.9%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 2% 99.8%  
36 15% 98%  
37 23% 83%  
38 22% 60%  
39 25% 38% Median
40 8% 13% Last Result
41 3% 4%  
42 1.0% 1.1%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations