Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for Helsingin Sanomat, 19 June–15 July 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2023-07-15-KantarTNS.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) |
22.6% |
22.0% |
20.8–23.3% |
20.4–23.6% |
20.1–24.0% |
19.6–24.6% |
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) |
12.9% |
19.8% |
18.6–21.0% |
18.3–21.4% |
18.0–21.7% |
17.5–22.3% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
12.3% |
19.4% |
18.2–20.6% |
17.9–21.0% |
17.6–21.3% |
17.1–21.9% |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) |
19.7% |
9.8% |
9.0–10.8% |
8.7–11.0% |
8.5–11.3% |
8.1–11.7% |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
9.3% |
8.1% |
7.3–9.0% |
7.1–9.2% |
6.9–9.4% |
6.6–9.9% |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
9.3% |
8.0% |
7.2–8.9% |
7.0–9.1% |
6.8–9.3% |
6.5–9.8% |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
6.8% |
4.5% |
3.9–5.2% |
3.8–5.4% |
3.6–5.6% |
3.4–5.9% |
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
5.2% |
3.9% |
3.4–4.6% |
3.2–4.8% |
3.1–4.9% |
2.9–5.2% |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0.0% |
2.1% |
1.7–2.6% |
1.6–2.7% |
1.5–2.9% |
1.4–3.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2023-07-15-KantarTNS-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2023-07-15-KantarTNS-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-15-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-kansallinenkokoomusepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
5% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
95% |
95% |
Median |
5 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Perussuomalaiset (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-15-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-perussuomalaisetecr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
65% |
100% |
Median |
4 |
35% |
35% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-15-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-suomensosialidemokraattinenpuoluesd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
71% |
100% |
Median |
4 |
29% |
29% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-15-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-suomenkeskustare.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
77% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
23% |
23% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-15-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-vasemmistoliittoguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.6% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-15-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-vihreäliittogreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.7% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-15-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-svenskafolkpartietifinlandre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
84% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
16% |
16% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-15-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-kristillisdemokraatitepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.1% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-15-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-liikenytni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2023-07-15-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
3 |
4 |
0% |
4 |
4 |
3–4 |
3–5 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
2 |
3 |
0% |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
4 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–3 |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-15-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-kok–kd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
4% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
95% |
96% |
Median |
5 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-15-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-sdp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
71% |
100% |
Median |
4 |
29% |
29% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-15-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-kesk–sfp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
62% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
37% |
38% |
|
3 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-15-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-vas.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.6% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-15-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-vihr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.7% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-07-15-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-liik.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar TNS
- Commissioner(s): Helsingin Sanomat
- Fieldwork period: 19 June–15 July 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1815
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.83%