Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS for Helsingin Sanomat, 11 September–6 October 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2023-10-06-KantarTNS.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) |
22.6% |
21.0% |
19.8–22.3% |
19.4–22.6% |
19.2–23.0% |
18.6–23.6% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
12.3% |
20.7% |
19.5–22.0% |
19.2–22.4% |
18.9–22.7% |
18.3–23.3% |
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) |
12.9% |
18.0% |
16.9–19.2% |
16.6–19.6% |
16.3–19.9% |
15.7–20.5% |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) |
19.7% |
10.1% |
9.2–11.1% |
9.0–11.4% |
8.8–11.6% |
8.4–12.1% |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
9.3% |
9.1% |
8.3–10.0% |
8.0–10.3% |
7.8–10.5% |
7.5–11.0% |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
9.3% |
8.4% |
7.6–9.3% |
7.4–9.6% |
7.2–9.8% |
6.8–10.3% |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
6.8% |
4.2% |
3.6–4.9% |
3.5–5.0% |
3.3–5.2% |
3.1–5.6% |
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
5.2% |
4.0% |
3.5–4.7% |
3.3–4.9% |
3.2–5.0% |
2.9–5.4% |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0.0% |
1.8% |
1.4–2.3% |
1.4–2.4% |
1.3–2.5% |
1.1–2.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2023-10-06-KantarTNS-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2023-10-06-KantarTNS-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-06-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-kansallinenkokoomusepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
7% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
93% |
93% |
Median |
5 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-06-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-suomensosialidemokraattinenpuoluesd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
8% |
100% |
|
4 |
91% |
92% |
Median |
5 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Perussuomalaiset (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-06-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-perussuomalaisetecr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
93% |
100% |
Median |
4 |
7% |
7% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-06-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-suomenkeskustare.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
25% |
100% |
|
2 |
75% |
75% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-06-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-vasemmistoliittoguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
83% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
17% |
17% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-06-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-vihreäliittogreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
97% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
3% |
3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-06-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-svenskafolkpartietifinlandre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
91% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
9% |
9% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-06-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-kristillisdemokraatitepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
96% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
4% |
4% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-06-KantarTNS-seats-pmf-liikenytni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2023-10-06-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
3 |
4 |
0% |
4 |
3–4 |
3–5 |
3–5 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
2 |
4 |
0% |
4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
4 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–3 |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-06-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-kok–kd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
6% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
90% |
94% |
Median |
5 |
4% |
4% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-06-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-sdp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
8% |
100% |
|
4 |
91% |
92% |
Median |
5 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-06-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-kesk–sfp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
18% |
100% |
|
2 |
80% |
82% |
Median |
3 |
2% |
2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-06-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-vas.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
83% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
17% |
17% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-06-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-vihr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
97% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
3% |
3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-10-06-KantarTNS-coalitions-seats-pmf-liik.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar TNS
- Commissioner(s): Helsingin Sanomat
- Fieldwork period: 11 September–6 October 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 1772
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.28%