Opinion Poll by Verian for Helsingin Sanomat, 11 December 2023–12 January 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2024-01-12-Verian.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) |
22.6% |
21.7% |
20.7–22.8% |
20.4–23.1% |
20.1–23.4% |
19.6–23.9% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
12.3% |
20.5% |
19.5–21.6% |
19.2–21.9% |
19.0–22.1% |
18.5–22.6% |
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) |
12.9% |
18.0% |
17.0–19.0% |
16.8–19.3% |
16.5–19.5% |
16.1–20.0% |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) |
19.7% |
10.1% |
9.4–10.9% |
9.2–11.2% |
9.0–11.4% |
8.7–11.8% |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
9.3% |
8.9% |
8.2–9.7% |
8.0–9.9% |
7.8–10.1% |
7.5–10.5% |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
9.3% |
8.4% |
7.7–9.1% |
7.5–9.3% |
7.4–9.5% |
7.1–9.9% |
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
5.2% |
4.3% |
3.8–4.9% |
3.7–5.0% |
3.6–5.2% |
3.4–5.4% |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
6.8% |
3.8% |
3.4–4.4% |
3.2–4.5% |
3.1–4.6% |
2.9–4.9% |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0.0% |
2.0% |
1.7–2.4% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.5–2.6% |
1.4–2.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2024-01-12-Verian-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2024-01-12-Verian-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-01-12-Verian-seats-pmf-kansallinenkokoomusepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.7% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
98% |
99.3% |
Median |
5 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-01-12-Verian-seats-pmf-suomensosialidemokraattinenpuoluesd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
9% |
100% |
|
4 |
91% |
91% |
Median |
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Perussuomalaiset (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-01-12-Verian-seats-pmf-perussuomalaisetecr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
95% |
100% |
Median |
4 |
5% |
5% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-01-12-Verian-seats-pmf-suomenkeskustare.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
16% |
100% |
|
2 |
84% |
84% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-01-12-Verian-seats-pmf-vihreäliittogreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
92% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
8% |
8% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-01-12-Verian-seats-pmf-vasemmistoliittoguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
98% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-01-12-Verian-seats-pmf-kristillisdemokraatitepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
91% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
9% |
9% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-01-12-Verian-seats-pmf-svenskafolkpartietifinlandre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.5% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-01-12-Verian-seats-pmf-liikenytni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2024-01-12-Verian-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
3 |
4 |
0% |
4 |
4–5 |
4–5 |
4–5 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
2 |
4 |
0% |
4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
4 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1–2 |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-01-12-Verian-coalitions-seats-pmf-kok–kd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
91% |
99.7% |
Median |
5 |
9% |
9% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-01-12-Verian-coalitions-seats-pmf-sdp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
9% |
100% |
|
4 |
91% |
91% |
Median |
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-01-12-Verian-coalitions-seats-pmf-kesk–sfp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
15% |
100% |
|
2 |
84% |
85% |
Median |
3 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-01-12-Verian-coalitions-seats-pmf-vihr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
92% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
8% |
8% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-01-12-Verian-coalitions-seats-pmf-vas.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
98% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-01-12-Verian-coalitions-seats-pmf-liik.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Verian
- Commissioner(s): Helsingin Sanomat
- Fieldwork period: 11 December 2023–12 January 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 2540
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.60%