Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Euronews, 23 February–5 March 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 22.6% 22.5% 20.9–24.3% 20.4–24.8% 20.0–25.2% 19.3–26.1%
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 12.3% 20.0% 18.4–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 12.9% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 19.7% 10.5% 9.3–11.8% 9.0–12.2% 8.7–12.6% 8.2–13.2%
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 9.3% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 9.3% 8.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.5–11.0%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 6.8% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 5.2% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 3 4 4 4–5 3–5 3–5
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 2 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 2 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 3 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 1 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 1 0 0 0 0 0–1
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 3% 100% Last Result
4 89% 97% Median
5 9% 9%  
6 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 40% 100%  
4 60% 60% Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 73% 100% Median
4 27% 27%  
5 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 21% 100%  
2 79% 79% Median
3 0% 0% Last Result

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 83% 100% Last Result, Median
2 17% 17%  
3 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 93% 100% Last Result, Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 2% 2% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 3 4 0% 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–5
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 2 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 4 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 1 1 0% 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 1 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 3% 100% Last Result
4 87% 97% Median
5 10% 10%  
6 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 40% 100%  
4 60% 60% Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 21% 100%  
2 78% 79% Median
3 0.9% 0.9%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 93% 100% Last Result, Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 83% 100% Last Result, Median
2 17% 17%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations