Opinion Poll by Verian for Helsingin Sanomat, 20 May–1 June 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2024-06-01-Verian.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) |
22.6% |
21.6% |
20.1–23.2% |
19.7–23.6% |
19.4–24.0% |
18.7–24.8% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
12.3% |
19.0% |
17.6–20.5% |
17.2–21.0% |
16.9–21.3% |
16.2–22.1% |
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) |
12.9% |
14.3% |
13.1–15.7% |
12.7–16.0% |
12.4–16.4% |
11.9–17.1% |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) |
19.7% |
12.1% |
11.0–13.4% |
10.7–13.8% |
10.4–14.1% |
9.9–14.7% |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
9.3% |
10.5% |
9.4–11.7% |
9.1–12.0% |
8.9–12.3% |
8.4–12.9% |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
9.3% |
9.7% |
8.7–10.9% |
8.4–11.2% |
8.2–11.5% |
7.7–12.1% |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
6.8% |
5.1% |
4.3–6.0% |
4.1–6.2% |
4.0–6.5% |
3.6–6.9% |
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
5.2% |
4.9% |
4.2–5.8% |
4.0–6.1% |
3.8–6.3% |
3.5–6.7% |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.6% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2024-06-01-Verian-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2024-06-01-Verian-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-01-Verian-seats-pmf-kansallinenkokoomusepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
17% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
82% |
83% |
Median |
5 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-01-Verian-seats-pmf-suomensosialidemokraattinenpuoluesd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
84% |
99.9% |
Median |
4 |
16% |
16% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Perussuomalaiset (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-01-Verian-seats-pmf-perussuomalaisetecr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
84% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
16% |
16% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-01-Verian-seats-pmf-suomenkeskustare.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
2% |
100% |
|
2 |
98% |
98% |
Median |
3 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-01-Verian-seats-pmf-vihreäliittogreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
31% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
69% |
69% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-01-Verian-seats-pmf-vasemmistoliittoguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
74% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
26% |
26% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-01-Verian-seats-pmf-svenskafolkpartietifinlandre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
48% |
100% |
|
1 |
52% |
52% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-01-Verian-seats-pmf-kristillisdemokraatitepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
60% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
40% |
40% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-01-Verian-seats-pmf-liikenytni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2024-06-01-Verian-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
3 |
4 |
0% |
4–5 |
3–5 |
3–5 |
3–5 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
2 |
3 |
0% |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
4 |
3 |
0% |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
1–3 |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
1 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-01-Verian-coalitions-seats-pmf-kok–kd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
6% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
65% |
94% |
Median |
5 |
29% |
29% |
|
6 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-01-Verian-coalitions-seats-pmf-sdp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
84% |
99.9% |
Median |
4 |
16% |
16% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-01-Verian-coalitions-seats-pmf-kesk–sfp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
2 |
49% |
99.5% |
|
3 |
51% |
51% |
Median |
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-01-Verian-coalitions-seats-pmf-vas.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
74% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
26% |
26% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-01-Verian-coalitions-seats-pmf-vihr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
31% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
69% |
69% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-01-Verian-coalitions-seats-pmf-liik.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Verian
- Commissioner(s): Helsingin Sanomat
- Fieldwork period: 20 May–1 June 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1204
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.16%