Opinion Poll by Åbo Akademi for MTV, 29 May–3 June 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2024-06-03-ÅboAkademi.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) |
22.6% |
21.5% |
20.3–22.8% |
19.9–23.2% |
19.6–23.6% |
19.0–24.2% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
12.3% |
17.0% |
15.9–18.2% |
15.5–18.6% |
15.3–18.9% |
14.8–19.5% |
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) |
12.9% |
13.3% |
12.3–14.4% |
12.0–14.8% |
11.8–15.0% |
11.3–15.6% |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
9.3% |
12.8% |
11.8–13.9% |
11.5–14.2% |
11.3–14.5% |
10.8–15.0% |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) |
19.7% |
11.4% |
10.5–12.5% |
10.2–12.8% |
10.0–13.0% |
9.5–13.5% |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
9.3% |
11.2% |
10.2–12.2% |
10.0–12.5% |
9.8–12.8% |
9.3–13.3% |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
6.8% |
5.8% |
5.2–6.6% |
5.0–6.9% |
4.8–7.1% |
4.5–7.5% |
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
5.2% |
4.9% |
4.3–5.6% |
4.1–5.8% |
3.9–6.0% |
3.7–6.4% |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–1.1% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.4–1.2% |
0.3–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2024-06-03-ÅboAkademi-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2024-06-03-ÅboAkademi-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-03-ÅboAkademi-seats-pmf-kansallinenkokoomusepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
47% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
53% |
53% |
Median |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-03-ÅboAkademi-seats-pmf-suomensosialidemokraattinenpuoluesd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
15% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
85% |
85% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Perussuomalaiset (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-03-ÅboAkademi-seats-pmf-perussuomalaisetecr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
99.6% |
99.9% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-03-ÅboAkademi-seats-pmf-vihreäliittogreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.5% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
99.5% |
99.5% |
Median |
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-03-ÅboAkademi-seats-pmf-suomenkeskustare.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
13% |
100% |
|
2 |
87% |
87% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-03-ÅboAkademi-seats-pmf-vasemmistoliittoguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
23% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
77% |
77% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-03-ÅboAkademi-seats-pmf-svenskafolkpartietifinlandre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
20% |
100% |
|
1 |
80% |
80% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-03-ÅboAkademi-seats-pmf-kristillisdemokraatitepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
81% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
19% |
19% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-03-ÅboAkademi-seats-pmf-liikenytni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2024-06-03-ÅboAkademi-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
3 |
4 |
0% |
3–4 |
3–5 |
3–5 |
3–5 |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
4 |
3 |
0% |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
1–3 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
2 |
3 |
0% |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
1 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
1 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-03-ÅboAkademi-coalitions-seats-pmf-kok–kd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
35% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
59% |
65% |
Median |
5 |
6% |
6% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-03-ÅboAkademi-coalitions-seats-pmf-kesk–sfp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
1.5% |
100% |
|
2 |
30% |
98.5% |
|
3 |
68% |
68% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-03-ÅboAkademi-coalitions-seats-pmf-sdp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
15% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
85% |
85% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-03-ÅboAkademi-coalitions-seats-pmf-vihr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.5% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
99.5% |
99.5% |
Median |
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-03-ÅboAkademi-coalitions-seats-pmf-vas.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
23% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
77% |
77% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-03-ÅboAkademi-coalitions-seats-pmf-liik.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Åbo Akademi
- Commissioner(s): MTV
- Fieldwork period: 29 May–3 June 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1682
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.94%