Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 29 May–4 June 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2024-06-04-Taloustutkimus.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) |
22.6% |
20.6% |
19.3–22.0% |
18.9–22.4% |
18.6–22.7% |
18.0–23.4% |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
12.3% |
19.4% |
18.1–20.7% |
17.8–21.1% |
17.5–21.5% |
16.9–22.1% |
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) |
12.9% |
16.5% |
15.3–17.8% |
15.0–18.2% |
14.7–18.5% |
14.2–19.1% |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) |
19.7% |
11.9% |
10.9–13.1% |
10.6–13.4% |
10.4–13.7% |
9.9–14.2% |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
9.3% |
10.8% |
9.8–11.9% |
9.6–12.2% |
9.3–12.5% |
8.9–13.0% |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
9.3% |
9.3% |
8.4–10.4% |
8.2–10.7% |
8.0–10.9% |
7.5–11.4% |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
6.8% |
4.2% |
3.6–4.9% |
3.4–5.2% |
3.3–5.3% |
3.0–5.7% |
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
5.2% |
4.0% |
3.4–4.7% |
3.2–4.9% |
3.1–5.1% |
2.9–5.5% |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0.0% |
1.1% |
0.9–1.6% |
0.8–1.7% |
0.7–1.8% |
0.6–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2024-06-04-Taloustutkimus-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2024-06-04-Taloustutkimus-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-kansallinenkokoomusepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
32% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
68% |
68% |
Median |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-suomensosialidemokraattinenpuoluesd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
72% |
100% |
Median |
4 |
28% |
28% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Perussuomalaiset (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-perussuomalaisetecr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
6% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
94% |
94% |
Median |
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-suomenkeskustare.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
98.8% |
98.9% |
Median |
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-vasemmistoliittoguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
17% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
83% |
83% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-vihreäliittogreensefa.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
82% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
18% |
18% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-svenskafolkpartietifinlandre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
93% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
7% |
7% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-kristillisdemokraatitepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
97% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
3% |
3% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-04-Taloustutkimus-seats-pmf-liikenytni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2024-06-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
3 |
4 |
0% |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–5 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
2 |
3 |
0% |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
4 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
1–3 |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
1 |
2 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
1 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-kok–kd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
30% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
69% |
70% |
Median |
5 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-sdp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
72% |
100% |
Median |
4 |
28% |
28% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-kesk–sfp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
2 |
92% |
99.1% |
Median |
3 |
7% |
7% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-vas.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
17% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
83% |
83% |
Median |
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-vihr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
82% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
18% |
18% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-06-04-Taloustutkimus-coalitions-seats-pmf-liik.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Taloustutkimus
- Commissioner(s): Yle
- Fieldwork period: 29 May–4 June 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1501
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.90%