Opinion Poll by Verian for Helsingin Sanomat, 20 May–14 June 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 12.3% 21.2% 20.1–22.3% 19.8–22.6% 19.6–22.9% 19.1–23.4%
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 22.6% 20.0% 19.0–21.1% 18.7–21.4% 18.4–21.6% 18.0–22.2%
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 12.9% 14.9% 14.0–15.9% 13.7–16.1% 13.5–16.4% 13.1–16.8%
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 19.7% 12.2% 11.4–13.1% 11.1–13.3% 10.9–13.6% 10.6–14.0%
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 9.3% 9.9% 9.2–10.7% 8.9–11.0% 8.8–11.2% 8.4–11.6%
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 9.3% 8.4% 7.7–9.2% 7.5–9.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 6.8% 4.5% 4.0–5.1% 3.9–5.3% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.7%
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 5.2% 4.3% 3.8–4.9% 3.7–5.1% 3.6–5.2% 3.3–5.5%
Liike Nyt (NI) 0.0% 2.3% 1.9–2.7% 1.8–2.9% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 2 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 3 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 2 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 3 2 2 2 2 2
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 1 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 1 1 1 1 1 1–2
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 7% 100%  
4 93% 93% Median
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 37% 100% Last Result
4 63% 63% Median
5 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 44% 100% Last Result
3 56% 56% Median
4 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 99.9% 100% Median
3 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 48% 100% Last Result
2 52% 52% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 98% 100% Last Result, Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Median
1 27% 27% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 3 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 2 4 0% 4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 4 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 1 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 1 1 0% 1 1 1 1–2
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 32% 100% Last Result
4 65% 68% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 7% 100%  
4 93% 93% Median
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 72% 100% Median
3 28% 28%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 48% 100% Last Result
2 52% 52% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 98% 100% Last Result, Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations