Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus, 7 June–2 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 22.6% 21.2% 20.0–22.5% 19.7–22.8% 19.4–23.1% 18.9–23.7%
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 12.3% 20.1% 19.0–21.3% 18.6–21.7% 18.4–22.0% 17.8–22.6%
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 12.9% 15.3% 14.3–16.4% 14.0–16.7% 13.7–17.0% 13.3–17.5%
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 19.7% 12.2% 11.3–13.2% 11.0–13.5% 10.8–13.7% 10.4–14.3%
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 9.3% 11.6% 10.7–12.6% 10.5–12.9% 10.3–13.1% 9.8–13.6%
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 9.3% 8.3% 7.6–9.2% 7.3–9.4% 7.2–9.7% 6.8–10.1%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 6.8% 3.9% 3.4–4.5% 3.2–4.7% 3.1–4.8% 2.9–5.2%
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 5.2% 3.7% 3.2–4.3% 3.1–4.5% 3.0–4.7% 2.7–5.0%
Liike Nyt (NI) 0.0% 1.9% 1.5–2.4% 1.4–2.5% 1.4–2.6% 1.2–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 3 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 2 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 2 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 3 2 2 2 2 2
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 1 2 2 2 2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 1 1 1 1 1 1–2
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 1 0 0 0 0 0–1
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 17% 100% Last Result
4 83% 83% Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 42% 100%  
4 58% 58% Median
5 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 43% 100% Last Result
3 57% 57% Median
4 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.4% 100%  
2 99.5% 99.6% Median
3 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.9% 100% Last Result
2 99.1% 99.1% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.6% 100% Median
1 1.4% 1.4% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 3 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 2 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 4 2 0% 2 2 2 2–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 1 2 0% 2 2 2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 1 1 0% 1 1 1 1–2
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 17% 100% Last Result
4 83% 83% Median
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 42% 100%  
4 58% 58% Median
5 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.4% 100%  
2 98% 99.6% Median
3 1.5% 1.5%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.9% 100% Last Result
2 99.1% 99.1% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations