Opinion Poll by Verian for Helsingin Sanomat, 17 June–12 July 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0.0% 20.8% 19.8–21.9% 19.5–22.2% 19.2–22.5% 18.7–23.0%
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0.0% 20.8% 19.8–21.9% 19.5–22.2% 19.2–22.5% 18.7–23.0%
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0.0% 15.6% 14.7–16.6% 14.4–16.9% 14.2–17.1% 13.8–17.6%
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0.0% 11.8% 11.0–12.7% 10.8–13.0% 10.6–13.2% 10.2–13.6%
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.0% 9.3–10.8% 9.0–11.1% 8.9–11.3% 8.5–11.7%
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 8.2% 7.5–9.0% 7.3–9.2% 7.2–9.4% 6.9–9.8%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0.0% 4.6% 4.1–5.2% 3.9–5.4% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.8%
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0.0% 3.8% 3.4–4.4% 3.2–4.5% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–4.9%
Liike Nyt (NI) 0.0% 2.2% 1.9–2.7% 1.8–2.8% 1.7–2.9% 1.5–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 31% 100%  
4 69% 69% Median
5 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 17% 100%  
4 83% 83% Median
5 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 17% 100%  
3 83% 83% Median
4 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 99.5% 99.5% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 49% 100%  
2 51% 51% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.8% 100% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 86% 100% Last Result, Median
1 14% 14%  
2 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 17% 100%  
4 83% 83% Median
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 31% 100%  
4 69% 69% Median
5 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 86% 99.7% Median
3 14% 14%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 49% 100%  
2 51% 51% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.8% 100% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations