Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 8 July–6 August 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0.0% 21.6% 20.4–22.9% 20.1–23.2% 19.8–23.6% 19.2–24.2%
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0.0% 20.4% 19.2–21.7% 18.9–22.0% 18.6–22.3% 18.1–22.9%
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0.0% 15.9% 14.9–17.1% 14.6–17.4% 14.3–17.7% 13.8–18.2%
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0.0% 11.9% 11.0–13.0% 10.7–13.2% 10.5–13.5% 10.1–14.0%
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.9% 10.0–11.9% 9.8–12.2% 9.5–12.4% 9.1–12.9%
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 8.9% 8.1–9.8% 7.9–10.1% 7.7–10.3% 7.3–10.8%
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0.0% 3.7% 3.2–4.4% 3.1–4.5% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–5.0%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0.0% 3.6% 3.1–4.2% 3.0–4.4% 2.9–4.6% 2.6–4.9%
Liike Nyt (NI) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 9% 100%  
4 90% 91% Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 54% 100% Median
4 46% 46%  
5 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 22% 100%  
3 78% 78% Median
4 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.2% 100%  
2 98.8% 98.8% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 17% 100%  
2 83% 83% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 97% 100% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 4 0% 4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 1–2
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1–2 1–2
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 9% 100%  
4 90% 91% Median
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 54% 100% Median
4 46% 46%  
5 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.2% 100%  
2 98.6% 98.8% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 17% 100%  
2 83% 83% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 97% 100% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations