Opinion Poll by Verian for Helsingin Sanomat, 15 July–16 August 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0.0% 20.9% 19.9–22.0% 19.6–22.3% 19.3–22.5% 18.9–23.0%
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0.0% 20.2% 19.2–21.2% 18.9–21.5% 18.7–21.8% 18.2–22.3%
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0.0% 15.0% 14.1–15.9% 13.9–16.2% 13.6–16.4% 13.2–16.9%
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0.0% 12.9% 12.1–13.8% 11.8–14.1% 11.6–14.3% 11.3–14.7%
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.1% 9.4–10.9% 9.2–11.2% 9.0–11.4% 8.7–11.8%
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 8.0% 7.3–8.7% 7.1–8.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.7–9.5%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0.0% 4.3% 3.8–4.9% 3.7–5.0% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.4%
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0.0% 4.2% 3.7–4.8% 3.6–4.9% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.3%
Liike Nyt (NI) 0.0% 2.2% 1.9–2.6% 1.8–2.7% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0 2 2 2 2 2–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 10% 100%  
4 90% 90% Median
5 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 28% 100%  
4 72% 72% Median
5 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 42% 100%  
3 58% 58% Median
4 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 99.4% 100% Median
3 0.6% 0.6%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 32% 100%  
2 68% 68% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 100% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 8% 8%  
2 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 2 0% 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 26% 100%  
4 72% 74% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 10% 100%  
4 90% 90% Median
5 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 92% 100% Median
3 8% 8%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 32% 100%  
2 68% 68% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 100% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations