Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 12 August–3 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0.0% 22.3% 21.0–23.7% 20.7–24.0% 20.4–24.4% 19.8–25.0%
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0.0% 21.9% 20.6–23.2% 20.3–23.6% 20.0–23.9% 19.4–24.6%
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0.0% 16.7% 15.5–17.9% 15.2–18.2% 15.0–18.5% 14.4–19.1%
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0.0% 10.8% 9.9–11.8% 9.6–12.1% 9.4–12.4% 9.0–12.9%
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 9.3% 8.5–10.3% 8.2–10.6% 8.0–10.8% 7.6–11.3%
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 8.2% 7.4–9.1% 7.2–9.4% 7.0–9.6% 6.6–10.1%
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0.0% 4.1% 3.5–4.8% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.5%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0.0% 3.6% 3.1–4.3% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–5.0%
Liike Nyt (NI) 0.0% 1.6% 1.3–2.1% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.3% 1.0–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 4 4 4 3–4 3–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0 4 4 4 3–4 3–4
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0 3 3 3 2–3 2–3
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 95% 97% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 96% 97% Median
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 96% 96% Median
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 13% 100%  
2 87% 87% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 83% 100% Median
2 17% 17%  
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.2% 100% Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 4 0% 4 4 3–5 3–5
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 4 0% 4 4 3–4 3–5
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1–2
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 94% 97% Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 95% 97% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 13% 100%  
2 87% 87% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 83% 100% Median
2 17% 17%  
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.2% 100% Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations