Opinion Poll by Verian for Helsingin Sanomat, 16 September–11 October 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) | 0.0% | 22.8% | 21.5–24.1% | 21.2–24.5% | 20.9–24.8% | 20.3–25.5% |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) | 0.0% | 19.4% | 18.2–20.7% | 17.9–21.0% | 17.6–21.3% | 17.1–22.0% |
| Perussuomalaiset (ECR) | 0.0% | 16.1% | 15.0–17.3% | 14.7–17.6% | 14.4–17.9% | 13.9–18.5% |
| Suomen Keskusta (RE) | 0.0% | 12.5% | 11.5–13.6% | 11.3–13.9% | 11.0–14.1% | 10.6–14.7% |
| Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 8.6% | 7.8–9.5% | 7.6–9.8% | 7.4–10.0% | 7.0–10.5% |
| Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.2–8.9% | 7.0–9.1% | 6.8–9.4% | 6.4–9.8% |
| Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.7–4.9% | 3.5–5.1% | 3.4–5.3% | 3.1–5.6% |
| Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.2–5.0% | 2.9–5.4% |
| Liike Nyt (NI) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.8% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.0% | 1.5–3.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Perussuomalaiset (ECR) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Suomen Keskusta (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 |
| Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Liike Nyt (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 87% | 99.9% | Median |
| 5 | 13% | 13% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 38% | 100% | |
| 4 | 62% | 62% | Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Perussuomalaiset (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Keskusta (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 98.6% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 91% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 9% | 9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98.9% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 88% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 12% | 12% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Liike Nyt (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Liike Nyt (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 87% | 99.9% | Median |
| 5 | 13% | 13% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 33% | 100% | |
| 4 | 66% | 67% | Median |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 87% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 13% | 13% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 91% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 9% | 9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98.9% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Liike Nyt (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Verian
- Commissioner(s): Helsingin Sanomat
- Fieldwork period: 16 September–11 October 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1751
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.30%