Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 7 October–5 November 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0.0% 24.3% 23.0–25.7% 22.6–26.1% 22.3–26.4% 21.7–27.1%
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0.0% 18.8% 17.6–20.1% 17.3–20.5% 17.0–20.8% 16.5–21.4%
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0.0% 15.7% 14.6–16.9% 14.3–17.3% 14.1–17.5% 13.5–18.1%
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0.0% 13.1% 12.1–14.2% 11.8–14.5% 11.6–14.8% 11.1–15.3%
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 9.3% 8.5–10.3% 8.2–10.6% 8.0–10.8% 7.6–11.3%
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 8.0% 7.2–8.9% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.4% 6.4–9.9%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.4%
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.2% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.9%
Liike Nyt (NI) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.5% 0.7–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0 2 2 2 2–3 2–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 49% 100%  
5 51% 51% Median
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 78% 100% Median
4 22% 22%  
5 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 11% 100%  
3 89% 89% Median
4 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 95% 100% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 71% 100% Median
2 29% 29%  
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.1% 100% Median
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 2 0% 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1–2
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 49% 100%  
5 51% 51% Median
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 78% 100% Median
4 22% 22%  
5 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 92% 100% Median
3 8% 8%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 71% 100% Median
2 29% 29%  
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.1% 100% Median
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations