Opinion Poll by Verian for Helsingin Sanomat, 14 October–15 November 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
0.0% |
22.5% |
21.3–23.8% |
21.0–24.1% |
20.7–24.4% |
20.2–25.0% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) |
0.0% |
19.8% |
18.7–21.0% |
18.3–21.3% |
18.1–21.6% |
17.5–22.2% |
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) |
0.0% |
16.3% |
15.3–17.4% |
15.0–17.8% |
14.8–18.0% |
14.3–18.6% |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) |
0.0% |
12.2% |
11.3–13.2% |
11.0–13.5% |
10.8–13.7% |
10.4–14.2% |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
9.1% |
8.3–10.0% |
8.1–10.2% |
7.9–10.5% |
7.5–10.9% |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
0.0% |
7.8% |
7.0–8.6% |
6.8–8.8% |
6.7–9.1% |
6.3–9.5% |
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
0.0% |
3.9% |
3.4–4.5% |
3.3–4.7% |
3.1–4.9% |
2.9–5.2% |
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
0.0% |
3.9% |
3.4–4.5% |
3.3–4.7% |
3.1–4.9% |
2.9–5.2% |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0.0% |
2.4% |
2.0–2.9% |
1.9–3.0% |
1.8–3.2% |
1.6–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
95% |
99.9% |
Median |
5 |
5% |
5% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
23% |
100% |
|
4 |
77% |
77% |
Median |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Perussuomalaiset (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
3 |
98.9% |
98.9% |
Median |
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
99.5% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
85% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
15% |
15% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
99.8% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
2% |
2% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
2% |
2% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) |
0 |
4 |
0% |
4 |
4 |
4–5 |
4–5 |
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) |
0 |
4 |
0% |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
3–4 |
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) |
0 |
2 |
0% |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2–3 |
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
1–2 |
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) |
0 |
1 |
0% |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Liike Nyt (NI) |
0 |
0 |
0% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
95% |
99.9% |
Median |
5 |
5% |
5% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
21% |
100% |
|
4 |
79% |
79% |
Median |
5 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
2% |
2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
85% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
15% |
15% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
99.8% |
100% |
Median |
2 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liike Nyt (NI)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Verian
- Commissioner(s): Helsingin Sanomat
- Fieldwork period: 14 October–15 November 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1967
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.20%