Opinion Poll by Verian for Helsingin Sanomat, 16 December 2024–17 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0.0% 24.4% 23.2–25.7% 22.8–26.1% 22.5–26.4% 21.9–27.1%
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0.0% 19.3% 18.1–20.5% 17.8–20.9% 17.5–21.2% 17.0–21.7%
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0.0% 14.9% 13.9–16.0% 13.6–16.3% 13.4–16.6% 12.9–17.2%
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0.0% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.6% 10.2–14.1%
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 8.7% 7.9–9.6% 7.7–9.8% 7.5–10.1% 7.1–10.5%
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.8% 7.0–8.6% 6.8–8.9% 6.6–9.1% 6.3–9.5%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0.0% 4.1% 3.6–4.8% 3.4–5.0% 3.3–5.1% 3.0–5.4%
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0.0% 4.1% 3.6–4.8% 3.4–5.0% 3.3–5.1% 3.0–5.4%
Liike Nyt (NI) 0.0% 2.2% 1.8–2.7% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.0% 1.5–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 36% 100%  
5 64% 64% Median
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 58% 100% Median
4 42% 42%  
5 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 27% 100%  
3 73% 73% Median
4 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 99.6% 99.9% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 92% 100% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.5% 100% Median
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 2 0% 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 36% 100%  
5 64% 64% Median
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 53% 100% Median
4 46% 47%  
5 0.9% 0.9%  
6 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 93% 99.9% Median
3 7% 7%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 92% 100% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.5% 100% Median
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations