Opinion Poll by Verian for Helsingin Sanomat, 16 April–18 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0.0% 25.3% 24.3–26.3% 24.1–26.6% 23.8–26.9% 23.3–27.4%
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0.0% 19.9% 19.0–20.9% 18.8–21.1% 18.5–21.4% 18.1–21.8%
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0.0% 15.3% 14.5–16.2% 14.3–16.4% 14.1–16.6% 13.7–17.0%
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0.0% 10.5% 9.8–11.2% 9.6–11.5% 9.5–11.6% 9.2–12.0%
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.1% 9.4–10.8% 9.2–11.0% 9.1–11.2% 8.8–11.6%
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.9% 7.3–8.6% 7.1–8.7% 7.0–8.9% 6.7–9.2%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0.0% 4.1% 3.7–4.6% 3.6–4.7% 3.5–4.9% 3.3–5.1%
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0.0% 3.3% 2.9–3.7% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.5–4.2%
Liike Nyt (NI) 0.0% 1.2% 1.0–1.5% 0.9–1.6% 0.9–1.6% 0.8–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 38% 100%  
5 62% 62% Median
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 65% 100% Median
4 35% 35%  
5 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 23% 100%  
3 77% 77% Median
4 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 15% 100%  
2 85% 85% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 61% 100% Median
2 39% 39%  
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 0.9%  
2 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Liike Nyt (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 38% 100%  
5 62% 62% Median
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 65% 100% Median
4 35% 35%  
5 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 23% 100%  
3 77% 77% Median
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 61% 100% Median
2 39% 39%  
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Liike Nyt (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations