Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 9–30 June 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0.0% 25.1% 23.8–26.5% 23.5–26.9% 23.2–27.2% 22.6–27.8%
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0.0% 20.8% 19.6–22.1% 19.3–22.4% 19.0–22.7% 18.4–23.4%
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0.0% 13.9% 12.9–15.0% 12.6–15.3% 12.4–15.6% 11.9–16.1%
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0.0% 11.8% 10.9–12.8% 10.6–13.1% 10.4–13.4% 9.9–13.9%
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 9.8% 8.9–10.7% 8.7–11.0% 8.5–11.2% 8.1–11.7%
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 7.6% 6.9–8.5% 6.6–8.7% 6.5–8.9% 6.1–9.4%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.7% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.3%
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.7% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.3%
Liike Nyt (NI) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.6% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 42% 100%  
5 58% 58% Median
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 19% 100%  
4 81% 81% Median
5 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 89% 100% Median
3 11% 11%  
4 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.0% 100%  
2 99.0% 99.0% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 55% 100% Median
2 45% 45%  
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 100% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 42% 100%  
5 58% 58% Median
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 18% 100%  
4 81% 82% Median
5 1.2% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 86% 100% Median
3 14% 14%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 55% 100% Median
2 45% 45%  
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 100% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations