Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 7 July–5 August 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0.0% 24.7% 23.5–26.0% 23.2–26.3% 22.9–26.6% 22.3–27.2%
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0.0% 19.1% 18.0–20.2% 17.7–20.6% 17.4–20.9% 16.9–21.4%
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0.0% 15.1% 14.1–16.2% 13.8–16.4% 13.6–16.7% 13.1–17.2%
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0.0% 12.3% 11.4–13.3% 11.2–13.6% 10.9–13.8% 10.5–14.3%
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.1% 9.3–11.0% 9.1–11.3% 8.9–11.5% 8.5–11.9%
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 8.6% 7.8–9.4% 7.6–9.7% 7.5–9.9% 7.1–10.3%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0.0% 3.9% 3.4–4.5% 3.3–4.7% 3.1–4.8% 2.9–5.2%
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.3% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.7%
Liike Nyt (NI) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.5–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 54% 100% Median
5 46% 46%  
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 85% 100% Median
4 15% 15%  
5 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 32% 100%  
3 68% 68% Median
4 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 99.8% 100% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 34% 100%  
2 66% 66% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 97% 100% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1–2 1–2
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 54% 100% Median
5 46% 46%  
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 85% 100% Median
4 15% 15%  
5 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 31% 100%  
3 68% 69% Median
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 34% 100%  
2 66% 66% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 97% 100% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations