Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 8 December 2025–2 January 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0.0% 23.9% 22.6–25.3% 22.2–25.7% 21.9–26.1% 21.2–26.8%
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0.0% 19.6% 18.3–20.9% 18.0–21.3% 17.7–21.6% 17.1–22.3%
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0.0% 15.1% 14.0–16.4% 13.7–16.7% 13.4–17.0% 12.9–17.6%
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0.0% 13.5% 12.4–14.6% 12.1–15.0% 11.9–15.3% 11.4–15.8%
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.7% 9.7–11.8% 9.5–12.0% 9.2–12.3% 8.8–12.8%
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 8.4% 7.5–9.4% 7.3–9.6% 7.1–9.9% 6.7–10.3%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0.0% 3.2% 2.7–3.8% 2.5–4.0% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.5%
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0.0% 3.1% 2.6–3.8% 2.5–3.9% 2.4–4.1% 2.1–4.4%
Liike Nyt (NI) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 80% 99.9% Median
5 20% 20%  
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 63% 100% Median
4 37% 37%  
5 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 45% 100%  
3 55% 55% Median
4 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 95% 100% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 19% 100%  
2 81% 81% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 100% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Liike Nyt (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 2 0% 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1–2
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 80% 99.9% Median
5 20% 20%  
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 63% 100% Median
4 37% 37%  
5 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 95% 100% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 19% 100%  
2 81% 81% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 100% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations