Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 9 February–3 March 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0.0% 25.0% 23.7–26.4% 23.4–26.8% 23.1–27.1% 22.5–27.8%
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0.0% 17.9% 16.8–19.1% 16.5–19.5% 16.2–19.8% 15.7–20.4%
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0.0% 14.9% 13.9–16.0% 13.6–16.4% 13.3–16.7% 12.8–17.2%
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0.0% 13.2% 12.2–14.3% 11.9–14.6% 11.7–14.9% 11.3–15.4%
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 10.1–12.0% 9.9–12.3% 9.6–12.6% 9.2–13.1%
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 8.2% 7.4–9.1% 7.2–9.3% 7.0–9.6% 6.6–10.0%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0.0% 3.4% 2.9–4.0% 2.8–4.2% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.7%
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0.0% 3.3% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.5%
Liike Nyt (NI) 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0 3 3 3 3 3–4
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0 2 2 2 2 2–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 46% 100%  
5 54% 54% Median
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 98% 99.9% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 53% 100% Median
3 47% 47%  
4 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 98% 100% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 100%  
2 95% 95% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.2% 100% Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Liike Nyt (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 3 0% 3 3 3 3–4
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1–2
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 46% 100%  
5 54% 54% Median
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 98% 99.9% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 98% 100% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 100%  
2 95% 95% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.2% 100% Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations