Opinion Poll by Verian for Helsingin Sanomat, 17 February–16 March 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0.0% 24.8% 23.9–25.7% 23.7–25.9% 23.5–26.2% 23.1–26.6%
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0.0% 17.8% 17.1–18.6% 16.8–18.8% 16.7–19.0% 16.3–19.4%
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0.0% 13.7% 13.0–14.4% 12.8–14.6% 12.7–14.8% 12.4–15.2%
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0.0% 13.4% 12.7–14.1% 12.5–14.3% 12.4–14.5% 12.1–14.8%
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.4% 9.8–11.1% 9.6–11.2% 9.5–11.4% 9.2–11.7%
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 8.9% 8.3–9.5% 8.2–9.7% 8.0–9.8% 7.8–10.1%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.6–4.4% 3.5–4.6% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9%
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0.0% 3.2% 2.9–3.6% 2.8–3.7% 2.7–3.8% 2.6–4.0%
Liike Nyt (NI) 0.0% 1.8% 1.6–2.1% 1.5–2.2% 1.4–2.3% 1.3–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0 3 3 3 3 3–4
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0 2 2 2 2–3 2–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 12% 100%  
5 88% 88% Median
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 98.7% 100% Median
4 1.3% 1.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 92% 100% Median
3 8% 8%  
4 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 97% 100% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 96% 96% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 96% 100% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Liike Nyt (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 3 0% 3 3 3 3–4
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 2 0% 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 1–2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1–2 1–2
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 12% 100%  
5 88% 88% Median
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 98.7% 100% Median
4 1.3% 1.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 91% 100% Median
3 9% 9%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 96% 96% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 96% 100% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations