Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 11 May–1 June 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0.0% 23.0% 21.7–24.4% 21.4–24.8% 21.0–25.1% 20.5–25.8%
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0.0% 18.3% 17.1–19.6% 16.8–20.0% 16.5–20.3% 16.0–20.9%
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0.0% 14.1% 13.1–15.3% 12.8–15.6% 12.5–15.9% 12.0–16.4%
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0.0% 13.8% 12.8–15.0% 12.5–15.3% 12.2–15.6% 11.8–16.1%
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.2% 10.2–12.2% 10.0–12.5% 9.7–12.8% 9.3–13.3%
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 8.3% 7.5–9.2% 7.3–9.5% 7.1–9.7% 6.7–10.2%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0.0% 3.9% 3.4–4.6% 3.2–4.8% 3.1–5.0% 2.8–5.3%
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0.0% 3.4% 2.9–4.1% 2.8–4.3% 2.7–4.4% 2.4–4.8%
Liike Nyt (NI) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.2% 1.2–2.3% 1.2–2.4% 1.0–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 82% 99.9% Median
5 18% 18%  
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 77% 100% Median
4 23% 23%  
5 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 67% 100% Median
3 33% 33%  
4 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 80% 100% Median
3 20% 20%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 98% 98% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 95% 100% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 82% 99.9% Median
5 18% 18%  
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 77% 100% Median
4 23% 23%  
5 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 64% 100% Median
3 35% 36%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 98% 98% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 95% 100% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations