Opinion Poll by Verian for Helsingin Sanomat, 18 May–15 June 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0.0% 24.1% 23.2–25.0% 23.0–25.2% 22.8–25.4% 22.4–25.9%
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0.0% 17.4% 16.7–18.2% 16.4–18.4% 16.3–18.6% 15.9–19.0%
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0.0% 13.6% 12.9–14.3% 12.7–14.5% 12.6–14.7% 12.3–15.0%
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0.0% 13.6% 12.9–14.3% 12.7–14.5% 12.6–14.7% 12.3–15.0%
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.2% 10.6–11.9% 10.4–12.1% 10.3–12.2% 10.0–12.5%
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 9.0% 8.4–9.6% 8.3–9.8% 8.2–9.9% 7.9–10.2%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0.0% 3.9% 3.5–4.3% 3.4–4.4% 3.3–4.5% 3.2–4.8%
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0.0% 3.1% 2.8–3.5% 2.7–3.6% 2.6–3.7% 2.5–3.9%
Liike Nyt (NI) 0.0% 2.1% 1.8–2.4% 1.8–2.5% 1.7–2.6% 1.6–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0 3 3 3 3 3–4
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 32% 100%  
5 68% 68% Median
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 99.4% 100% Median
4 0.6% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 89% 100% Median
3 11% 11%  
4 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 92% 100% Median
3 8% 8%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 100% 100% Median

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 87% 100% Median
2 13% 13%  
3 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Liike Nyt (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 3 0% 3 3 3 3–4
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 32% 100%  
5 68% 68% Median
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 99.4% 100% Median
4 0.6% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 88% 100% Median
3 12% 12%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 100% 100% Median

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 87% 100% Median
2 13% 13%  
3 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations