Opinion Poll by Taloustutkimus for Yle, 4–30 June 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0.0% 23.2% 22.0–24.5% 21.6–24.9% 21.3–25.2% 20.8–25.8%
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0.0% 17.4% 16.3–18.6% 16.0–18.9% 15.7–19.2% 15.2–19.8%
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0.0% 14.5% 13.5–15.6% 13.2–15.9% 13.0–16.2% 12.5–16.7%
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0.0% 13.6% 12.6–14.6% 12.3–15.0% 12.1–15.2% 11.6–15.7%
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.4% 10.5–12.4% 10.3–12.7% 10.0–13.0% 9.6–13.4%
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 8.6% 7.8–9.5% 7.6–9.8% 7.4–10.0% 7.0–10.4%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0.0% 3.8% 3.3–4.4% 3.1–4.6% 3.0–4.8% 2.8–5.1%
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0.0% 3.4% 2.9–4.0% 2.8–4.2% 2.7–4.3% 2.5–4.6%
Liike Nyt (NI) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.7–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0 3 3 3 3 3–4
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 75% 100% Median
5 25% 25%  
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 98% 99.9% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 49% 100%  
3 51% 51% Median
4 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 85% 100% Median
3 15% 15%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 99.5% 99.5% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 95% 100% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.2% 1.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 3 0% 3 3 3–4 3–4
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 1–2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 75% 100% Median
5 25% 25%  
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 97% 99.9% Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 84% 100% Median
3 16% 16%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 99.5% 99.5% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 95% 100% Median
2 5% 5%  
3 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations