Opinion Poll by Verian for Helsingin Sanomat, 14 July–17 August 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0.0% 23.8% 22.8–24.8% 22.5–25.1% 22.3–25.4% 21.8–25.9%
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0.0% 16.5% 15.6–17.4% 15.4–17.7% 15.2–17.9% 14.8–18.3%
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0.0% 14.6% 13.8–15.5% 13.5–15.7% 13.4–15.9% 13.0–16.4%
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0.0% 13.7% 12.9–14.6% 12.7–14.8% 12.5–15.0% 12.1–15.4%
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 8.8% 8.2–9.5% 8.0–9.7% 7.8–9.9% 7.5–10.2%
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.7% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.4% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9%
Liike Nyt (NI) 0.0% 2.3% 2.0–2.7% 1.9–2.8% 1.8–2.9% 1.7–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) 0 3 3 3 3 3
Perussuomalaiset (ECR) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Suomen Keskusta (RE) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 2 2 2 2 2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 69% 100% Median
5 31% 31%  
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.5% 100%  
3 99.5% 99.5% Median
4 0% 0%  

Perussuomalaiset (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Perussuomalaiset (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 47% 100%  
3 53% 53% Median
4 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suomen Keskusta (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 90% 100% Median
3 10% 10%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 99.5% 99.5% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 94% 100% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Liike Nyt (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liike Nyt (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP) 0 3 0% 3 3 3 3
Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 2
Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liike Nyt (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 69% 100% Median
5 31% 31%  
6 0% 0%  

Kansallinen Kokoomus (EPP) – Kristillisdemokraatit (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.5% 100%  
3 99.5% 99.5% Median
4 0% 0%  

Suomen Keskusta (RE) – Svenska folkpartiet i Finland (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 88% 100% Median
3 12% 12%  
4 0% 0%  

Vasemmistoliitto (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 99.5% 99.5% Median
3 0% 0%  

Vihreä liitto (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 94% 100% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Liike Nyt (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations